Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Physiotherapists (3142)
- Occupational Outlook
- SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Physiotherapists (3142)
- Skill Type
- Health occupations
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require university education.
- Employment in 2021
- 30,500
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 41.2 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 64 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Over the 2019-2021 period, employment grew at a higher rate than the average of all occupations. The unemployment rate stood just above 1.0% in 2021, well below the national average of 7.5%. As a result of the very low unemployment rate (and limited number of unemployed workers) and a high, and growing, number of job vacancies, there was consistently less than one unemployed worker per job vacancy, limiting the ability of employers to fill vacancies. Yet, the unemployment and vacancy data analysis must be interpreted with caution as 1 in 3 workers are self-employed. Despite this, the difficult working environment created by the COVID-19 pandemic led to the burnout of many medical professionals. Moreover, the rapid spread of COVID-19 left many health care practitioners out sick or in isolation, creating substantial bottle necks in the health system. Hence, the analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill all job openings in this occupational group.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Physiotherapists are expected to total 14,300, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 14,100.
As job openings and job seekers are projected to be similar over the 2022-2031 period, it is expected that the shortage between labour supply and demand seen in recent years will continue over the projection period. Job openings are projected to arise primarily from employment growth. Population aging and longer life expectancy are expected to increase the demand for services from health-related professionals, including physiotherapists. Preventive treatments and follow-ups of physical conditions as well as rehabilitation services should all be more solicited given the expected growth of older age groups. Moreover, the growing concerns over health and fitness are expected to lead to an increase in the number of sports injuries, resulting in higher demand for physiotherapy services. As a result, employment growth is expected to be well above the average of all occupations. About 30% of all job openings are projected to arise from retirements, a proportion that is below the average of all occupations (50%) due to the below-average retirement rate.
With regard to labour supply, due to the highly specialized nature of this occupation, school leavers are expected to account for the majority of job seekers. In addition, a non-negligible number of immigrants are expected to seek employment in this occupational group, adding more supply.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 8,600 | 60% |
| Retirements: | 4,300 | 30% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 700 | 5% |
| Emigration: | 700 | 5% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 14,300 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 15,600 | 111% |
| Immigration: | 2,900 | 21% |
| Other: | -4,400 | -31% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 14,100 | 100% |