Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2019-2028)

The current COPS projections were completed in 2019, well before the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak that resulted in exceptional and abrupt economic and labour market disruptions in Canada as well as abroad. However, the focus of the COPS projections is on long-term trends in occupational labour markets, not on short-term developments. At the moment, these long-term trends are not expected to be affected markedly by the COVID-19 outbreak as its impacts are generally foreseen to be temporary.

Note: The projections were developed for 293 occupational groupings that cover the entire workforce, using the 2016 National Occupational Classification (NOC). For additional information on these groupings, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition. For more information about the methodology used to assess each occupation, please click here.

Search Result : Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates & Other assisting occupations in support of health services (3413)

Occupational Outlook
SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2019-2028 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
Occupations in this Group
  • Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates (3413)
  • Other assisting occupations in support of health services (3414)
Skill Type
Health occupations
Skill Level
Occupations usually require secondary school and/or occupation-specific training.
Employment in 2018
321,000
Median Age of workers in 2018
42.9 years old
Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2018
64 years old

In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2019-2028) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2019-2028. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions.

Over the 2016-2018 period, employment in this occupational group increased at a somewhat stronger pace than the average for all occupations. The unemployment rate continued declining to reach 3.0% in 2018, sitting near its own historical low and below the national average of 5.8%. Throughout the 2016-2018 period, the number of unemployed workers per job vacancy was well below the average for all occupations, and fell consistently, suggesting that the increased demand for workers has reduced the available stock of workers. Hence, analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings in this occupational group.

Over the period 2019-2028, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates & Other assisting occupations in support of health services are expected to total 178,700, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 182,700 .

As job openings and job seekers are projected to be relatively similar over the 2019-2028 period, the labour shortage conditions seen in recent years are expected to continue over the projection period. Job openings are projected to arise from both expansion demand and retirements. Job creation (expansion demand) is projected to represent more than 50% of job openings. Similar to most occupations in the health sector, the aging population and the rising need for long-term care is projected to put further pressure on the demand for health services assistants. The growing number of seniors will lead to an increase in the use of hospital, nursing homes and long-term care centers services where these workers provide front-line services. Retirements are also expected to represent about 40% of job openings. Pressures arising from these departures are anticipated to be in line with the national average as workers in this occupational grouping have a similar age structure to that of other occupations. With regard to labour supply, the number of school leavers is expected to increase in response to the high demand for workers in this occupation. As it has been the case in recent years, a significant number of job seekers are expected to join this occupation from immigration. Finally, almost 40% of the labour supply for this occupational group will come from workers from other occupations, notably home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations (NOC 4412), looking for career opportunities and higher wages.

Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2019-2028

This table contains data related to Projected Job Openings.
Level Share
Expansion Demand: 92,900 52%
Retirements: 68,300 38%
Other Replacement Demand: 9,500 5%
Emigration: 7,900 4%
Projected Job Openings: 178,700 100%
This table contains data related to Projected Job Seekers.
Level Share
School Leavers: 66,200 36%
Immigration: 46,200 25%
Other: 70,400 39%
Projected Job Seekers: 182,700 100%
Date modified: