Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)

Search Result : Early childhood educators and assistants (4214)

Occupational Outlook

BALANCE: Labour demand and labour supply are expected to be broadly in line for this occupation group over the 2022-2031 period at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.

Occupations in this Group

• Early childhood educators and assistants (4214)

Skill Type

Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services

Skill Level

Occupations usually require college or vocational education or apprenticeship training.

Employment in 2021

229,100

Median Age of workers in 2021

41 years old

Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021

63 years old

In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.

Over the 2019-2021 period, employment in this occupational group fell, remaining significantly below pre-pandemic level in 2021. During the pandemic, immediate job losses were not as steep as the average across all occupations. However, the recovery was slower than average, leading to a greater proportion of jobs lost that had yet to recover by 2021. Similarly, the unemployment rate increased substantially in 2020, reaching its highest level in more than 20 years, followed by a drop in 2021, but still remaining higher than its pre-pandemic level. Job vacancies increased substantially over the period, mainly caused by an increase in the last two quarters of 2021. This led to an increase in the job vacancy rate (vacancies as a share of total demand) during these quarters but remaining below the all-occupation average. As the increase in the number of unemployed workers was of similar magnitude to that of the vacancies, the ratio of unemployed-to-vacancy (so-called UJV ratio) in 2021 was similar than what it was in 2019, at about 2.5 unemployed workers available to fill 1 vacancy. A lower ratio suggests a tighter labour market. In comparison, the ratio for the all-occupation average was around 2 in 2021. It should also be noted that these observations occurred during or prior to Canada-wide Early Learning and Child Care (ELCC) investments, agreements, and implementation, which began in 2021-2022.

Seasonality plays an important role in the availability of workers in this occupation, specially for those working with school age children (5-11 years old). In fact, during typical school months (usually from September to June), the unemployment rate is often substantially below the average in other occupations. Moreover, most of these workers are employed by educational institutions and day-care services businesses who had strict restrictions for in-person work for people (students or workers) with any COVID-related symptoms. This limited labour supply on a temporary basis for many of these businesses, sometimes creating localized and temporary labour supply bottlenecks. Despite this, the analysis of the key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was sufficient to fill the job openings in this occupational group over the whole period.

Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Early childhood educators and assistants are expected to total 108,800, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 91,500.

However, this gap is not significantly large as it represents less than 0.8% annually of their employment size of about 230,000 workers in 2021. As a result, the balance between labour supply and demand seen in recent years is expected to continue over the projection period, albeit with some recruitment difficulties during the implementation of the Canada-wide early learning and child care (ELCC) system during the first half of the projection period. Employment growth will be concentrated in the first few years, as the occupation will recover some of the employment losses experienced during the pandemic, as well as the implementation of the Canada-wide ELCC system for children under the age of five program in all provinces and territories outside Quebec (which already had its own low-cost day-care program in place). As such, labour shortage conditions may temporarily emerge due to Canada-wide ELCC system growth, whereby provinces and territories committed to create more than 250,000 additional child care spaces by March 2026, which is expected to put pressures for more workers, especially over the first half of the projection period . However, employment in the occupation is set to return to low growth rates in the second half of the projection period. Assuming federal, provincial and territorial government spending on early learning and child care programs remain at announced levels, the growth in the number of job openings in the occupation will stabilize towards the end of the projection period. Retirements will also account for a significant proportion of job openings (about 39%). Yet, the retirement rate is expected to be similar to the average of all occupations as these workers tend to have a similar age structure to that of all occupations and tend to retire at a similar age.

Regarding labour supply, school leavers are expected to account for about three quarters of job seekers, mostly college graduates. Early childhood Education (ECE) training programs normally range from one to three years, which might pose a challenge to Canada-wide ELCC system implementation. Immigration will account for the remaining quarter of job seekers as the employment requirement of some positions (such as early childhood educator assistant) within this occupational grouping is relatively low for training (e.g., few years of training, which also require relatively low entry requirements) and this occupational group is very popular among newcomers, especially among women. The skills typically required in this occupation are usually standard worldwide and not unique to the Canadian labour market. Acquiring the required certification has historically been relatively fast in comparison to other professions (typically 1 to 3 years programs) and with limited educational pre-requisites. Finally, some new workers will come from other occupations, notably workers previously working as home child care providers (NOC 4411), due in part to the implementation of the Canada-wide system.

Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031

This table contains data related to Projected Job Openings.

	Level	Share
Expansion Demand:	54,900	50%
Retirements:	42,000	39%
Other Replacement Demand:	6,200	6%
Emigration:	5,600	5%
Projected Job Openings:	108,800	100%

This table contains data related to Projected Job Seekers.

	Level	Share
School Leavers:	73,300	80%
Immigration:	22,700	25%
Other:	-4,500	-5%
Projected Job Seekers:	91,500	100%