Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Insurance agents and brokers (6231)
- Occupational Outlook
- BALANCE: Labour demand and labour supply are expected to be broadly in line for this occupation group over the 2022-2031 period at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Insurance agents and brokers (6231)
- Skill Type
- Sales and service occupations
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require college or vocational education or apprenticeship training.
- Employment in 2021
- 90,200
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 44.2 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 64 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Over the 2019-2021 period, employment in this occupational group increased at a stronger pace than the national average. Employment rebounded strongly, following a pandemic related decline in 2020. This was reflected on the unemployment rate, which increased slightly in 2020, but fell back in 2021, remaining well below the national average during the period. In addition, with the exception of a temporary increase in 2020, the number of unemployed workers per job vacancy remained below 1 over the period, due to both a relatively low number of unemployed and an increasing number of job vacancy, especially in 2021. This was particularly true in Ontario and Quebec, where most of the workers work. Overall, the analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the demand exceeded substantially the supply in this occupational group over the 2019-2021 period. For this occupational group, this shortage was largely due to the rapid rising of labour demand as a result of the re-opening of hard-to-distance businesses.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Insurance agents and brokers are expected to total 40,500, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 50,600.
As a result, the projected number of job seekers is expected to substantially surpass the projected number of job openings, significantly enough to eliminate the shortage situation seen over the 2019-2021 period, returning this occupation to balance conditions over the 2022-2031 period. Retirements are projected to account of half of job openings over the 2022-2031 period, similar to the average of all occupations (about 50% of openings). The retirement rate will be close to the average of all occupations. These workers are older on average, but they retire at the same age as the average worker. Employment growth is expected to be similar to the average of all occupations. As a result, job creation will contribute about 38% of the total job openings, also similar to the average of all occupations (about 37% of openings). In the short-term, high inflation and rising interest rates are expected to restrain growth in consumer spending, particularly for big-ticket items, while the surge in housing prices and rising mortgage rates are expected to reduce new housing and resale activity over the next few years, limiting the demand for home and property insurance services. Once inflation returns to its target rate of 2%, the insurance industry should improve modestly in the medium term, supported by some cyclical recovery in consumer spending and demand for new housing in response to higher immigration, stronger pressures on housing supply and an eventual decline in interest and mortgage rates which will support demand for insurance. However, growth is projected to moderate again towards the end of the projection period as the declining trend projected in household formation rates (due to population aging) are expected to limit growth in consumer spending and residential investment. That being said, the sector is in the midst of a technological revolution, with insurtech applications transforming the traditional business models and opening doors to new competition, notably from the computer services industry. Such technologies include the use of artificial intelligence, big data analysis, robotic process automation (RPA), open banking and blockchain transactions to improve efficiency in the delivery of insurance services. For example, insurtech calculates discount premiums by monitoring healthy behaviours through tracking devices or biometric sensors. However, the steady rise in the number of data breaches presents a risk for financial institutions and regulators must ensure those new applications are safe for consumers and firms before being fully implemented. The frequency and cost of natural disasters are also rising, threatening the stability and profitability of the insurance segment.
On the supply side, a little less than half of seekers are expected to come directly from the school system, mostly bachelor and college graduates. Immigrants are expected to account for only 11% of labour supply in this occupation. Because of the recent shortage conditions and following historical patterns, a large share of job seekers, 43%, are expected to come from other occupations, seeking opportunities in this occupation, among them, insurance adjusters and claims examiners; insurance underwriters; assessors, valuators, and appraisers; and customs, ship, and brokers (NOC 1312, 1313, 1314 and 1315).
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 15,200 | 38% |
| Retirements: | 20,300 | 50% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 3,000 | 7% |
| Emigration: | 2,000 | 5% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 40,500 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 24,600 | 49% |
| Immigration: | 6,200 | 12% |
| Other: | 19,900 | 39% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 50,600 | 100% |