Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Cooks (6322)
- Occupational Outlook
- BALANCE: Labour demand and labour supply are expected to be broadly in line for this occupation group over the 2022-2031 period at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Cooks (6322)
- Skill Type
- Sales and service occupations
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require college or vocational education or apprenticeship training.
- Employment in 2021
- 163,700
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 34.8 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 63 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
The vast majority of workers in this occupational group are employed in the food services industry. This industry was strongly impacted by public health measures introduced by governments to reduce the spread of COVID-19 cases. As a result, employment in this occupational group fell markedly in 2020 and while there was an increase in 2021, it remained substantially below the pre-pandemic level. The unemployment rate increased substantially in 2020 following the impact of the pandemic and fell back in 2021. Although it remained above its pre-pandemic level, it was above the national average, as it has been its historical pattern. Despite this, the number of job vacancies increased significantly in 2021, resulting in a surge in the job vacancy rate, tripling the national average. As a result, the number of unemployed workers per job vacancy fell below the national average in 2021. Labour market conditions tightened markedly in the third and fourth quarter of 2021. As unemployment fell and job vacancies continued to increase rapidly, this resulted in less than one unemployed workers per job vacancy by the end of 2021. As labour demand increased rapidly, the lack of available workers to meet this increase was reflected also in employers reporting that it took them 90 days or more to fill 50% of the vacancies, compared to about one-third among all occupations. Overall, the analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that at the end of 2021, the demand exceeded substantially the supply in this occupational group. For this occupational group, this shortage was largely due to the rapid rising of labour demand as a result of the re-opening of hard-to-distance businesses.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Cooks are expected to total 73,300, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 95,500.
As a result, the projected number of job seekers is expected to substantially surpass the projected number of job openings, significantly enough to eliminate the shortage situation seen over the 2019-2021 period, returning this occupation to balance conditions over the 2022-2031 period. Employment growth is expected to be substantially above the average of all occupations. As a result, job creation will contribute about half of the total job openings, above the average of all occupations (about 37% of openings). In the short-term, the food services sector is expected to see strong output and employment growth in 2022, given that all pandemic related restricted have been lifted, leading to the gradual return of workers in office and recovery in travel, tourism, and recreational activities. However, in the medium-term, strong inflation and higher interest rates will put pressures on household budgets, restraining growth in discretionary spending devoted to restaurants and bars. When inflation returns to its target rate of 2%, interest rates should eventually start to decline, relieving some pressures on household budgets and discretionary spending. That said, a number of factors are expected to limit the capacity of the industry to expand moving forward, including the adoption of hybrid work models and use of online platforms for meetings and conferences will limit the demand for food services in downtown office-centric areas. Over the longer term, the industry will continue to explore ways to digitalize dining in order to improve productivity. Businesses are expected to increase the incorporation of data-gathering software and analytics programs into their operations via point-of-sale transactions, mobile applications, reservation systems, drive-thru traffic, customer rewards programs and social media. The technical feasibility of automation for various occupations within the industry given current technologies remains significant. The shift in consumption patterns toward food delivery and take-out services, particularly from younger generations, is also expected to reduce labour intensity in some segments of the industry and increase productivity. This could have some impact on cooks’ employment. Moreover, retirements are projected to account for about 40% of job openings over the 2022-2031 period, below the average of all occupations (about 50% of openings). The retirement rate will be similar to the average of all occupations, even if their average age is below that of the average Canadian worker. This is mostly because of a higher share of younger workers. Despite this, there are still an important share of older workers close to retirement age. As a result, the median retire age is about the same as the average. On the supply side, a little more than half of seekers are expected to come directly from the school system, mostly college graduates, and to a lesser extend high school graduates. Immigrants are also expected to continue being a major source of labour supply, accounting for about 45% of seekers in this occupation. Given the relative important supply of workers, several workers will seek opportunities in other occupations. However, this negative mobility will not be sufficient to offset the large number of school leavers and immigrants, resulting in the occupation returning to balance conditions over the projection period.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 36,400 | 50% |
| Retirements: | 28,900 | 39% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 3,700 | 5% |
| Emigration: | 4,300 | 6% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 73,300 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 63,200 | 66% |
| Immigration: | 55,100 | 58% |
| Other: | -22,800 | -24% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 95,500 | 100% |