Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Retail salespersons (6421)
- Occupational Outlook
- BALANCE: Labour demand and labour supply are expected to be broadly in line for this occupation group over the 2022-2031 period at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Retail salespersons (6421)
- Skill Type
- Sales and service occupations
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require secondary school and/or occupation-specific training.
- Employment in 2021
- 527,900
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 34.5 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 66 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
The vast majority of workers in this occupational group are employed in the retail trade industry. Part of this industry was strongly impacted by public health measures introduced by governments to reduce the spread of COVID-19 cases, especially during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, with lockdowns leading to a temporary decline in consumer spending (except spending on non-durable goods such as food and beverage products). As a result, employment in this occupational group fell in 2020. Employment increased slightly in 2021, but it remained below the pre-pandemic level. The unemployment rate increased substantially in 2020 in reaction to the decline in employment, but fell back in 2021, although it remained above its pre-pandemic level, and above the national average, as it has historically been the case. The number of job vacancies increased significantly in 2021, resulting in a surge in the job vacancy rate, well above the national average. However, the labour market conditions tightened markedly in the third and fourth quarter of 2021 as public restrictions continued to be lifted. Indeed, the number of unemployed workers fell, while the number of job vacancies continued to increase, resulting in the unemployed workers per job vacancy ratio to fall below 1 nationally and in most provinces. Overall, the analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that at the end of 2021, the demand exceeded substantially the supply in this occupational group. For this occupational group, this shortage was largely due to the rapid rising of labour demand as a result of the re-opening of hard-to-distance businesses.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Retail salespersons are expected to total 149,200, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 168,300.
As a result, the projected number of job seekers is expected to substantially surpass the projected number of job openings, significantly enough to eliminate the shortage situation seen over the 2019-2021 period, returning this occupation to balance conditions over the 2022-2031 period. Employment growth is expected to be comparable to the average of all occupations. Job creation will contribute about 30% of the total job openings, similar to the average of all occupations (about 37% of openings). In the short-term, high inflation and rising interest and mortgage rates are expected to restrain growth in consumer spending (particularly for big-ticket items) and reduce residential investment in the short to medium term. Once inflation returns to its target rate of 2%, demand in retail trade should improve modestly. However, the gradual slowdown anticipated in Canada’s labour force growth is expected to constrain overall employment growth in the longer term, while the aging of the population will result in massive retirements of baby-boomers from the labour market. These two factors are expected to contain the pace of growth in disposable income and consumer spending, including spending on durable, semi-durable and non-durable goods sold by retailers. On the positive side, high import prices resulting from the relatively low value of the Canadian dollar (which is projected to remain below 0.80 US dollar) should continue to encourage Canadians, especially those living close to the U.S. border, to shop in Canada, supporting revenues in domestic retail stores. Changes in shopping patterns will keep influencing the outlook for retailers. As e-commerce expands, Canadian retailers are expected to face a surge in competition from global suppliers, but they are also expected to take advantage of new opportunities to expand their markets outside the country. Finally, employment growth in the retail sector as a whole is expected to moderate as the shift to online shopping will continue to increase competition and reduce profit margins, forcing retailers to lower labour costs and embrace new productivity-enhancing technologies, which could limit employment growth for this occupation. Retirements are projected to account for an important portion of job openings over the 2022-2031 period (53%), similar to the average of all occupations (about 50% of openings). The retirement rate will be below the average of all occupations, as the average age of those workers is lower, and the median retirement age is higher than the average worker.
On the supply side, about three quarters of seekers are expected to come directly from the school system, mostly college graduates, but also, to a lesser extent, high school, and university graduates. Immigrants are expected to account for about a quarter of labour supply in this occupation. This occupation often represents temporary positions for younger people transitioning in the labour market. Given the relative important supply of workers, several workers will seek opportunities in other occupations, especially in administrative officers (NOC 1221), sales and account representatives – wholesale trade (non-technical) (NOC 6411) and technical sales specialists – wholesale trade (NOC 6221). This negative mobility will not be sufficient to offset the large number of school leavers and immigrants, resulting in the occupation returning to balance conditions over the projection period.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 45,600 | 31% |
| Retirements: | 78,800 | 53% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 12,300 | 8% |
| Emigration: | 12,400 | 8% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 149,200 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 191,100 | 114% |
| Immigration: | 72,800 | 43% |
| Other: | -95,600 | -57% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 168,300 | 100% |