Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Service station attendants (6621)
- Occupational Outlook
- SURPLUS: This occupational group is expected to face labour surplus conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Service station attendants (6621)
- Skill Type
- Sales and service occupations
- Skill Level
- On-the-job training is usually provided for occupations.
- Employment in 2021
- 8,300
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 27.8 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 66 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Employment in this occupational group has been on a declining trend for the past three decades as fuel service station are becoming progressively more self-served. This trend continued over the 2019-2021 period. The unemployment rate has been volatile and substantially higher than the average, but not showing any particular trend. This suggests that the labour force followed a similar trend as employment, meaning that people who used to work in this occupational group are leaving to seek jobs in other occupations. The number of job vacancies has remained relatively stable since 2017, resulting in an increasing trend in the job vacancy rate, reflecting lower employment rather than increasing vacancies. Overall, the analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the supply was sufficient to fill the demand in this occupational group over the 2019-2021 period.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Service station attendants are expected to total -3,000, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total -4,000.
Although this occupational group has had a balanced market in recent years, it is projected to face a situation of labour surplus over the 2022-2031 period. Labour demand in this occupational group has been declining over the past decade. As the projected number of job openings is expected to be negative because of further anticipated declines in labour demand, a large number of workers are expected to leave this occupational group to seek employment in other occupations, resulting in a negative number of job seekers over the 2022-2031 period. This outflow of workers is a result of this expected labour surplus condition. Employment is expected to decline over the projection period. As a result, job losses will reduce total job openings. The declining employment trend in this occupational group observed over the past few decades is projected to continue as fuel service stations become more productive (larger) and they will continue to be self-served. In addition, the increasing tendency towards electric vehicles will also negatively impact employment prospects for the typical fossil base service station attendants. Despite this, a declining number of service station attendants will remain to clean, lubricate and perform minor repairs to motor vehicles and sell fuel in marinas, rent boats and related equipment, and maintain marina facilities. Because of the expected decline in employment, retirements are projected to account for almost all job openings. The retirement rate is expected to be below the average of all occupations, as the average age of workers is substantially below average, while the median retire age is about the same as the average worker.
On the supply side, about 55% of seekers are expected to come directly from the school system, mostly high school graduates. Immigrants are also expected to continue being a major source of labour supply, accounting for about 45% of seekers in this occupation. This occupation often represents temporary positions for people transitioning in the labour market. Given the relative important supply of workers, and the expected decline in labour demand, a substantial number of workers will leave this occupational group, resulting in a decline in the number of job seekers over the 2022-2031 period. This negative mobility will not be sufficient to offset the excess of job seekers, driving the occupation into surplus conditions over the projection period.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | -4,100 | 137% |
| Retirements: | 900 | -30% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 100 | -3% |
| Emigration: | 100 | -3% |
| Projected Job Openings: | -3,000 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 2,300 | -57% |
| Immigration: | 1,800 | -45% |
| Other: | -8,100 | 202% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | -4,000 | 100% |