Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations (6711)
- Occupational Outlook
- BALANCE: Labour demand and labour supply are expected to be broadly in line for this occupation group over the 2022-2031 period at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
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- Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations (6711)
- Skill Type
- Sales and service occupations
- Skill Level
- On-the-job training is usually provided for occupations.
- Employment in 2021
- 337,900
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 29.2 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 65 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
The vast majority of workers in this occupational group are employed in the food and drinking services industry. This industry was strongly impacted by public health measures introduced by governments to reduce the spread of COVID-19 cases. Consequently, employment in this occupational group fell markedly in 2020, slightly rebounding in 2021, but remaining significantly below its pre-pandemic level. The unemployment rate increased substantially in 2020 following the impact of the pandemic, but fell back in 2021, although it remained above its pre-pandemic level and above the national average. Despite this, the number of job vacancies increased significantly in 2021, resulting in a job vacancy rate that was two times its historical average and about three time the national average. As a result, the number of unemployed workers per job vacancy fell in 2021, and labour market conditions tightened markedly in the third and fourth quarter of 2021. Indeed, unemployment fell, and job vacancies continued to increase, resulting in less than one unemployed workers per job vacancy towards the end of 2021. Overall, the analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that at the end of 2021, the demand exceeded substantially the supply in this occupational group. For this occupational group, this shortage was largely due to the rapid rising of labour demand as a result of the re-opening of hard-to-distance businesses.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations are expected to total 110,000, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 137,600.
As a result, the projected number of job seekers is expected to substantially surpass the projected number of job openings, significantly enough to eliminate the shortage situation seen over the 2019-2021 period, returning this occupation to balance conditions over the 2022-2031 period. Employment growth is expected to be slightly above the average of all occupations, largely concentrated in the first few post-pandemic recovery years. As a result, job creation will contribute about 58% of the total job openings, above the average of all occupations (about 37% of openings). In the short-term, the food services sector is expected to see strong output and employment growth in 2022, given that all pandemic related restricted have been lifted, leading to the gradual return of workers in office and recovery in travel, tourism, and recreational activities. However, in the medium-term, strong inflation and higher interest rates will put pressures on household budgets, restraining growth in discretionary spending devoted to restaurants and bars. When inflation returns to its target rate of 2%, interest rates should eventually start to decline, relieving some pressures on household budgets and discretionary spending. That said, a number of factors are expected to limit the capacity of the industry to expand moving forward, including the adoption of hybrid work models and use of online platforms for meetings and conferences will limit the demand for food services in downtown office-centric areas. Over the longer term, the industry will continue to explore ways to digitalize dining in order to improve productivity. The technical feasibility of automation for various occupations within the industry given current technologies remains significant. Businesses are expected to increase the incorporation of data-gathering software and analytics programs into their operations via point-of-sale transactions, mobile applications, reservation systems, drive-thru traffic, customer rewards programs and social media. The shift in consumption patterns toward food delivery and take-out services, particularly from younger generations, is also expected to reduce labour intensity in some segments of the industry and increase productivity. For these reasons, employment for this occupation might still take a few years before returning to pre-pandemic level, and the growing trend in employment further on is expected to be weaker than what was recorded in the past decade. Retirements are projected to account for a relatively small portion of job openings over the 2022-2031 period (29%), substantially below the average of all occupations (about 50% of openings), essentially reflecting the strength of employment growth, but also because of a relatively low retirement rate. Workers is this occupation are on average among the youngest of all the occupations and the median retirement age is about the same as the average worker.
On the supply side, about half of job seekers are expected to come directly from the school system, mostly high school, and college graduates. Immigrants are also expected to continue being a major source of labour supply, accounting for the other half of seekers in this occupation. Given the relative important supply of workers, this occupation might end up being temporary positions for people transitioning within the labour market. Several workers will seek opportunities in other occupations, especially in services-oriented occupations. This negative mobility will not be sufficient to offset the large number of school leavers and immigrants, resulting in the occupation returning to balance conditions over the projection period.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 64,200 | 58% |
| Retirements: | 31,900 | 29% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 5,400 | 5% |
| Emigration: | 8,600 | 8% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 110,000 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 108,500 | 79% |
| Immigration: | 105,800 | 77% |
| Other: | -76,700 | -56% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 137,600 | 100% |