Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Carpenters (7271)
- Occupational Outlook
- SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Carpenters (7271)
- Skill Type
- Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require college or vocational education or apprenticeship training.
- Employment in 2021
- 127,200
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 38.9 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 64 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Over the 2019-2021 period, employment in this occupational group fell slightly. Employment fell in 2020 as pandemic related restrictions impacted the construction sector, it rebounded in 2021, but not enough to fully recover the employment losses, remaining below its pre-pandemic level. The fluctuations in employment were reflected in the unemployment rate. After increasing significantly in 2020, it fell back in 2021, but remained above its pre-pandemic level. The number of job vacancies remained stable over the 2019-2020 period, but significantly increased in 2021, resulting in a large increase in the job vacancy rate in 2021, much stronger than the national average. Finally, with the increase in job vacancies, the number of unemployed workers to fill vacancies fell in 2021, close to the national average for this first time, as it was substantially above up to that point. Finally, about half of vacancies remained unfilled after 90 days, a share substantially bigger than the one for the all-occupations average of less than one third. Overall, analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the demand exceeded substantially the supply in this occupational group over the 2019-2021 period. For this occupational group, this shortage was largely due rapid rising of labour demand as a result of the re-opening of hard-to-distance businesses.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Carpenters are expected to total 37,900, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 32,800.
Although the labour shortage conditions seen in recent years were expected to be temporary, the projected number of job seekers is not expected to be large enough to return this occupation to balance conditions over the projection period. As a result, the shortage conditions will become more structural, continuing over the 2022-2031 period. Retirements are expected to represent about 53% of these job openings, a proportion that is about the same as the average of all occupations (about 50% of job openings). Workers in this occupational group are generally younger than the average and tend to retire at a similar age than those in other occupations, resulting in a retirement rate that is slightly lower than the average rate for all occupations. Employment growth is projected to be similar than the national average. As a result, job creation will represent about 32% of openings, a proportion that is slightly below the occupations average (about 37% of openings). A small decline in residential investment is anticipated in the short-term as the surge in housing prices and higher mortgage rates are expected to reduce new home construction and resale activity, restraining growth in renovation spending. A cyclical recovery in demand for new housing is expected over the medium term in response to higher immigration and stronger pressures on housing supply. However, decent growth in renovation spending is expected to offset some of the weakness in new home construction and resale activity, partly supported by the various federal, provincial and municipal programs dedicated to green housing and the desire of baby-boomers to make home improvements to continue enjoying their houses as they age. On the non-residential investment side, faster growth in investment related to the construction of non-residential buildings will support employment growth in occupations related to the construction sector such as carpenters. The federal government’s infrastructure program launched in 2016 ($186 billion over 12 years) is also expected to continue to support the construction of institutional buildings, at least until 2028. In addition to transportation, public transit, green and rural infrastructures, this program includes spending on “social infrastructure” such as early learning and childcare facilities, affordable housing, home care, and cultural and recreational infrastructure. Over the medium term to long term, the occupation will benefit from the transition towards a greener economy. Indeed, the retrofit of manufacturing and industrial plants will provide addition boost to the employment in this occupation.
With regard to labour supply, over the projection period most of the job seekers are expected to come from the school system, largely from apprenticeship and college programs. New immigrants are also expected to account for a significant number of new job seekers. However, a sizeable number of workers, representing a little less than one third of job seekers, are projected to look for newer opportunities in other occupations, specially in supervisory and managerial roles, for example as contractors and supervisors, carpentry trades (NOC 7204).
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
Level | Share | |
---|---|---|
Expansion Demand: | 12,000 | 32% |
Retirements: | 20,100 | 53% |
Other Replacement Demand: | 2,900 | 8% |
Emigration: | 3,000 | 8% |
Projected Job Openings: | 37,900 | 100% |
Level | Share | |
---|---|---|
School Leavers: | 36,600 | 112% |
Immigration: | 15,100 | 46% |
Other: | -18,900 | -58% |
Projected Job Seekers: | 32,800 | 100% |