Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Managers in transportation (0731)
- Occupational Outlook
- SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Managers in transportation (0731)
- Skill Type
- Management occupations
- Skill Level
- Management occupations
- Employment in 2021
- 26,900
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 47.2 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 65 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Over the 2019-2021 period, employment in this occupational group increased, led by a strong gain in 2019. Employment fell in 2020, as the transportation industry was severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting from business lockdowns, home confinement, travel restrictions and closed borders. Employment partially rebounded in 2021, as public health measures were progressively lifted. Despite the job losses in 2020, the unemployment rate remained relatively stable and low, close to it’s historical average. The number of job vacancies fell in 2020 along with employment, but rebounded back in 2021, slightly above their 2019 level. Despite this, the job vacancies remained relatively low, but because of large prevalence of self-employment in this occupational group, this as to be taken with caution as self-employment are not captured by the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey. With this in mind, the number of unemployed by job vacancy remained stable, at about two. Overall, analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the supply was sufficient to fill the demand in this occupational group over the 2019-2021 period.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Managers in transportation are expected to total 14,200, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 9,700.
Although this occupational group has had a balanced market in recent years, projected job openings are expected to be substantially higher to job seekers, creating a shortage of workers over the 2022-2031 period. Job openings are expected to arise almost equally from employment growth and retirements. Workers in this occupational group tend to be older than average, but also to retire a bit later in their career, the retirement rate is expected to be slightly higher than the national average. Still, retirements will account for about 47% of total job openings, a proportion that is similar to the average of all occupations (about 50%). Employment growth is projected to be stronger than the average of all occupations. It is expected to account for about 41% of job openings, a portion that is similar to the average of all occupations (about 37%). Over the next decade, the transportation sector is expected to have an above average growth in employment. In the short-term, the industry will progressively recover from the pandemic in the first half of the projection horizon. Truck, rail and water transportation will benefit from solid growth in the goods-producing industries in the short to medium term, particularly in the manufacturing sector, driven by renewed growth in exports and the gradual resorption of supply chain disruptions. Transit and ground passenger transportation will benefit from the lifting of public health restrictions and the recovery in travel and tourism activity. Air transportation will benefit from the lifting of public health restrictions, the reopening of the borders, and the recovery in travel activity following the accumulation of a strong pent-up demand during the pandemic. In the second half of the projection period, growth in transportation of merchandises is expected to moderate, in line with slower growth in manufacturing production and exports as well as a tepid outlook for retail and construction activity. Growth prospect for recreational travel is mixed. On one hand, higher incomes in emerging markets and massive retirements of baby-boomers in developed markets are expected to support demand for recreational travel. On the other hand, the slower pace of growth anticipated in disposable income in Canada (resulting from the gradual slowdown anticipated in employment growth) is also expected to put pressures on discretionary spending, including spending on air travel. Another factor that could restrain growth in demand for air travel moving forward is climate change activism. Finally, transit and ground passenger transportation will continue to benefit from additional investment in transportation infrastructure and public transit, as this type of transportation is view as a greener alternative to individual car transportation.
Regarding labour supply, given that many years of experience are generally required to obtain a management position, it is not surprising that most job seekers will come from other occupations, mainly supervisors in the transportation sector. Still, immigrants are expected to provide about 28% of the job seekers in this occupational group, and about 9% will come from the school systems, mostly Bachelor graduates.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 5,800 | 41% |
| Retirements: | 6,700 | 47% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 1,100 | 8% |
| Emigration: | 600 | 4% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 14,200 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 1,000 | 10% |
| Immigration: | 3,000 | 31% |
| Other: | 5,700 | 59% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 9,700 | 100% |