Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Nursery and greenhouse workers (8432)
- Occupational Outlook
- SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Nursery and greenhouse workers (8432)
- Skill Type
- Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require secondary school and/or occupation-specific training.
- Employment in 2021
- 20,400
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 38.2 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 68 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Nursery and greenhouse workers work in agriculture industry, plant, cultivate and harvest trees, shrubs, flowers and plants, and serve nursery and greenhouse customers. They are employed in indoor and outdoor nurseries and greenhouses. Employers encounter difficulties to attract domestic workers due to this seasonal nature, its rural location, relatively low wages and long hours. This is why a significant proportion of Nursery and greenhouse workers are temporary foreign workers, particularly during peak production months. The Seasonal Agricultural Worker Program (SAWP) allows employers to hire temporary foreign workers (TFW) when Canadians and permanent residents are not available. It should be noted that temporary foreign workers are difficult to capture in our official statistics based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS). If contacted by the LFS, temporary foreign workers would be included only if they identify the selected dwelling as their usual place of residence. However, a lot of these workers are not the main respondents to the survey for different reasons, including their lodging rural conditions and the lack of official language competencies. Indeed, according to the LFS in 2021, there were 20,400 farm workers and according to IRCC's administrative data, there was a substantial number of temporary foreign workers in this occupational group during the peak season. To properly analyze this occupational group, both sources of information must be considered. Over the 2019-2021 period, employment increased, reaching its historic high in 2019, but dropping during the pandemic. Also, due to the seasonal nature of labour demand in this occupational category, the unemployment rate and the number of vacancies vary throughout the year. During the high season, the unemployment rate generally drastically falls, while the vacancy rate is very high, particularly in the first and last quarters of the year. Coupled with the heavy use of temporary foreign workers, the analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the demand exceeded substantially the supply in this occupational group over the 2019-2021 period.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Nursery and greenhouse workers are expected to total 7,600, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 8,400.
As job openings and job seekers are projected to be relatively similar over the 2022-2031 period, the labour shortage conditions seen in recent years are expected to continue over the projection period, concentrated during the peak season. Most of these workers are employed in the agricultural industry whose outlook is generally favourable for the period 2022-2031. Population growth in Canada will continue to support domestic demand, while robust global demand will continue to maintain high prices and support exports, although prices should remain subject to high volatility due to unpredictable crop production and fluctuations in input costs (such as energy and fertilizers). With a large share of production destined to foreign markets, additional growth in global population, rising per capita income in developing and emerging economies, and greater trade liberalization will continue to drive demand for agricultural products. Higher international market integration and difficulties in recruiting workers will continue to put pressure on Canadian farmers to be cost-effective through innovative technologies, somewhat limiting employment growth. As a result, employment in this occupational group is projected to keep increasing over the 2022-2031 horizon, but at a slower pace than the previous ten years. The level of employment should increase but remain below its 2019 peak level. Retirements will account for about one third of job openings. The retirement rate for this occupational group is lower than the average for all occupations. This is because workers in this occupational group are relatively young, and generally retire at an older age.
With regard to labour supply, the majority of job seekers will come from the school system, followed by immigration. This occupational group is popular among newcomers in the country, given the possible transition paths from being a temporary worker into a permanent resident. Net mobility is expected to be limited over the projection period, which means that some workers will arrive from other occupations, particularly those in the service sector. While others will seek career advancement, higher wages or other opportunities, such as farm supervisors or agricultural managers. As this is a highly seasonal occupation, some pressure on the labour market is expected during the peak summer months. Difficulties to attract domestic workers due to this seasonal nature, its rural location, relatively low wages and long hours have resulted in greater utilization of temporary foreign workers for this occupation during the peak working months. This situation is expected to persist over time.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 3,800 | 50% |
| Retirements: | 2,700 | 36% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 600 | 8% |
| Emigration: | 500 | 7% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 7,600 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 5,900 | 70% |
| Immigration: | 2,200 | 26% |
| Other: | 300 | 4% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 8,400 | 100% |