Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Labourers in wood, pulp and paper processing (9614)
- Occupational Outlook
- BALANCE: Labour demand and labour supply are expected to be broadly in line for this occupation group over the 2022-2031 period at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
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- Labourers in wood, pulp and paper processing (9614)
- Skill Type
- Occupations in manufacturing and utilities
- Skill Level
- On-the-job training is usually provided for occupations.
- Employment in 2021
- 18,100
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 39 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 66 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Over the 2019-2021 period, employment for this occupational group continued its short-term downward trend until 2021, when the economic reopening following the COVID-19 pandemic led to renewed employment growth. As businesses sought to increase their workforces, the number of job vacancies increased significantly in 2021, and the share of job vacancies unfilled after 90 days or more rose to over 50%, over 20 percentage points the national average share. Although the unemployment rate was relatively high, this occupation has had low ratios of unemployed to job vacancies, and in 2021 this ratio declined to its lowest historical point of 1 (compared to the national average of 2). Indeed, the increase in the number of job vacancies not only led to a decline in this ratio, but also to the increase of the job vacancy rate, which risen significantly to a level three times higher than the national average. Overall, the analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the demand exceeded substantially the supply in this occupational group over the 2019-2021 period. For this occupational group, this shortage was largely due rapid rising of labour demand as a result of the re-opening of hard-to-distance businesses.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Labourers in wood, pulp and paper processing are expected to total 1,800, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 2,200.
The projected number of job seekers is expected to substantially surpass the projected number of job openings, significantly enough to eliminate the shortage situation seen over the 2019-2021 period, returning this occupation to balance conditions over the 2022-2031 period. Although this occupational group will have a lower retirement rate than the average of all occupations, as workers are both younger and retire older than the average, retirements are expected to account for more than 100% of the job openings in this occupational group, as employment growth is projected to be negative. The main industries employing this occupational group (Wood Product Manufacturing & Paper Manufacturing) are not expected to display strong output growth over the coming decade, resulting from weak demand for paper and input constraints because of forest fires. In addition, these industries will need to invest heavily in automation and advanced manufacturing processes in order to remain competitive on the global market. This is expected to substantially reduce labour demand for this occupational group, resulting in lower total employment at the end of the projection period than at the beginning.
On the supply side, this occupational group is expected draw the majority of its job seekers from school leavers, largely those with college degrees followed by those with only high school diplomas. Immigrants are projected to account for approximately a third of all job seekers in this occupational group, a similar proportion to the average across all occupations. Low wages and poor working conditions are expected to continue, and strong mobility out of this occupational group is expected. Even with this exodus of workers, labour supply over the 2022-2031 period is projected to be significantly higher than labour demand. This excess of job seekers is expected to fill the current shortage conditions, resulting in the occupation returning to balance conditions over the projection period.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | -1,900 | -106% |
| Retirements: | 2,900 | 161% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 400 | 22% |
| Emigration: | 400 | 22% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 1,800 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 5,300 | 241% |
| Immigration: | 2,400 | 109% |
| Other: | -5,600 | -255% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 2,200 | 100% |