Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Labourers in food and beverage processing & Labourers in fish and seafood proc.ing (9617)
- Occupational Outlook
- SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Labourers in food and beverage processing (9617)
- Labourers in fish and seafood processing (9618)
- Skill Type
- Occupations in manufacturing and utilities
- Skill Level
- On-the-job training is usually provided for occupations.
- Employment in 2021
- 42,600
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 42.8 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 66 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Over the 2019-2021 period, employment for this occupational group reached a small peak in 2019, before falling in rapidly in 2020 and moderately in 2021. As businesses sought to increase their workforces following the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of job vacancies substantially increased in 2021, and the share of job vacancies unfilled after 90 days or more rose to about 50%, 20 percentage points higher than the national average. Although the unemployment rate was relatively high, this occupation has unemployed-to-job-vacancies ratios similar to the average. Yet, in 2021 this ratio declined to its lowest historical point of just above 1 (compared to the national average of 2). Indeed, the increase in the number of job vacancies, with the decline in the employment levels not only led to a decline in this ratio, but also to the increase of the job vacancy rate , which risen significantly to a level three times higher than the national average. Overall, the analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the demand exceeded substantially the supply in this occupational group over the 2019-2021 period. For this occupational group, this shortage was largely due rapid rising of labour demand as a result of the re-opening of hard-to-distance businesses.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Labourers in food and beverage processing & Labourers in fish and seafood proc.ing are expected to total 17,600, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 15,500.
Although the labour shortage conditions seen in recent years were expected to be temporary, the projected number of job seekers is not expected to be large enough to return this occupation to balance conditions over the projection period. As a result, the shortage conditions will become more structural, continuing over the 2022-2031 period. Retirements are expected to account for slightly more than half of all job openings for this occupational group. The retirement rate is expected to be only slightly higher than the average for all occupations, because while workers in this occupational group are somewhat older on average, they also retire at a significantly older age. Employment growth is expected to be slightly below the average of all occupations. The main industry employing this occupational group (Food and Beverage Products) will benefit from as faster population growth (driven by higher immigration targets) which will support growth in domestic demand for food and beverage products. Additionally, further expansion into new markets through the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) will support the export-oriented segment of this industry. However, this industry will need to invest heavily in automation and advanced manufacturing processes in order to remain competitive on the global market, which will moderate the growth of labour demand for this occupational group.
On the supply side, this occupational group is expected to continue relying heavily on immigration to meet labour demand. Almost four-fifths of job seekers (79%) are projected to be recent immigrants, a significantly higher share than the average across all occupations. Conversely, school leavers are not expected to represent an important source of labour supply as this occupational group is not very popular among youths due to the nature of the work, its sometimes-remote locations, and low wages. For similar reasons, strong mobility out of this occupational group is expected, contributing significantly to the labour shortage conditions.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 5,000 | 28% |
| Retirements: | 10,200 | 58% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 1,400 | 8% |
| Emigration: | 1,000 | 6% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 17,600 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 9,700 | 63% |
| Immigration: | 37,100 | 239% |
| Other: | -31,200 | -201% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 15,500 | 100% |