Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Graph Descriptions of Imbalances

Two-thirds of all projected job openings are in occupations usually requiring PSE or in management occupations

Figure 1 - Job Openings from Expansion and Replacement Demand by Skill Level, 2011-2020 The source is located after the table
  Other Replacement DemandRetirementsExpansion Demand
D 160 205
C 508 876
B 681 985
A 413 771
M 253 175
Management 88.3 441.8 177.7
Skill Level A (university education) 168.9 698.8 524.8
Skill Level B (college education) 284.4 1,275.10 684.4
Skill Level C (high school) 225.8 978.3 421.3
Skill Level D (on-the-job training) 82.4 302.2 179.1

Source: HRSDC 2011 COPS Reference Scenario.

Return at position of Figure 1 - Job Openings from Expansion and Replacement Demand by Skill Level, 2011-2020

Two-third of all job seekers are expected to look for work in occupations usually requiring PSE or in management

Figure 2 - Job seekers by skill level, 2011-2020 The source is located after the table
  School leaversImmigrantsOtherNet Mobility
D   160 205
C   508 876
B   681 985
A   413 771
M   253 175
Management 251.1 85 117.7 268.93
Skill level A 979.1 197.1 179.9 -7.44
Skill level B 1,550.00 246.3 233.32 -27.4
Skill level C 1,352.60 355.4 -18.32 28.99
Skill level D 603.9 181.4 -51.1 -263.09

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and HRSDC 2011 COPS Reference Scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 2 - Job seekers by skill level, 2011-2020

With limited evidence of imbalances between labour demand and supply among broad skill levels in recent years…

Figure 3 - Relative Unemployment Rates by Skill Level, 1997-2010 The source is located after the table
  Management OccupationsOccupations Usually Requiring University EducationOccupations Usually Requiring College or Apprenticeship TrainingOccupations Usually Requiring High School EducationOccupations Usually Requiring On-the-job Training
1997 51.47 47.97 93.46 117.43 227.54
1998 52.11 46.8 91.78 118.09 230.37
1999 48.76 46.37 89.23 115.33 246.48
2000 47.93 47.53 87.51 114.46 250.19
2001 47.42 49.49 91.85 117.23 235.44
2002 50.19 47.96 92.86 116.21 232.82
2003 48.37 52.42 87.35 114.28 239.8
2004 47.51 49.94 88.88 115.88 241.45
2005 52.1 43.69 85.63 116.62 249.59
2006 46.36 42.59 89.04 122.22 249.12
2007 43.53 42.16 89.69 124.28 251.8
2008 46.01 41.66 86.2 120.89 259.15
2009 47.28 41.44 90.95 127.71 238.1
2010 51.1 43.27 87.61 117.67 247.36
Figure 3 - Relative Wages by Skill Level 1997-2010 The source is located after the table
1997 131.1364811 146.4855287 97.27530623 74.67931448 60.88764694
1998 128.4978051 146.4523388 98.41919334 76.12178771 60.57213513
1999 138.3385766 149.3597474 95.32874072 72.93539568 56.86775984
2000 139.8551059 148.4223878 95.78255712 72.84328296 56.12943381
2001 143.600194 146.6683002 94.87521166 72.67861391 55.61488994
2002 146.1436833 147.9240244 94.13853934 71.62902235 54.57129487
2003 146.5609897 148.3661053 93.4371501 71.34585432 54.83616147
2004 148.7376626 150.1115345 92.3182883 70.90896902 53.50169425
2005 147.262189 148.6583992 93.22161431 71.17252025 54.49513872
2006 149.3585787 148.7279552 92.94666363 70.25405048 54.09724624
2007 147.4185005 148.6136738 93.16074628 70.90260186 54.72114924
2008 150.4601145 147.6039971 92.8427481 70.56375701 53.91708982
2009 148.6355182 147.8764619 93.75347815 70.59976899 54.17031317
2010 149.1049323 147.5341289 93.20643025 71.00385259 54.17162633

Source: : HRSDC calculations using Labour Force Survey data.

Return at position of Figure 3 - Relative Unemployment and Relative Wages by Skill Level 1997-2010

… and the projections showing similar numbers of job openings and job seekers by skill level, no major imbalances by skill level are projected over the next ten years

Figure 4 - Job Openings and Job Seekers by Skill Level over 2011-2020, as a Percentage of 2010 Employment The source is located after the table
Skill LevelJob OpeningsJob Seekers
Management Occupations 4.75 4.97
Skill Level A 4.61 4.53
Skill Level B 4.21 3.88
Skill Level C 3.72 4.08
Skill Level D 3.7 3.23

Source: HRSDC 2011 COPS Reference Scenario.

Return at position of Figure 4 - Job Openings and Job Seekers by Skill Level over 2011-2020, as a Percentage of 2010 Employment

The absence of significant imbalances by skill level does not mean that there are no imbalances for specific occupations

Figure 5 - Job Openings and Job Seekers by Occupation over 2011-2020, as a Percentage of 2010 Employment The source is located after the table
NOC ManagersExpected Demand ManagersExpected Supply_manNOC Skill Level AExpected Demand Skill Level AExpected Supply Skill Level ANOC Skill Level BExpected Demand Skill Level BExpected Supply Skill Level BNOC Skill Level CExpected Demand Skill Level CExpected Supply Skill Level CNOC Skill Level DExpected Demand Skill Level DExpected Supply Skill Level D
N001 6.8 6 N111 4.7 3.9 N121 4.2 4.5 N141 3.6 3.9 N661 3 2.8
N011 4.8 5.6 N112 6.3 5.2 N122 5.1 3.5 N142 2.7 2.3 N662 3.9 2.8
N012 3.9 3.9 N211 3.9 6 N123 4.7 3.5 N143 3.6 3.9 N664 3.2 3.1
N013 3.3 5.8 N212 4.3 4.6 N124 4.1 1.3 N144 4.7 3 N665 4.9 3.9
N021 5 4.9 N213 4.7 5.6 N221 4.2 5.4 N145 3.1 4 N666 4.3 3.1
N031 6.3 5 N214 4.5 4.7 N222 4.6 4 N146 3.9 3.3 N667 3.8 2.2
N041 5.4 5.8 N215 3.3 3.1 N223 4.2 4.7 N147 3.1 4.3 N668 4.1 3.2
N051 4.8 8.3 N216 3.3 3.6 N224 4.3 4.4 N341 5.2 5.1 N761 2.9 3.7
N061 5.2 4.7 N217 4.1 5.7 N225 3.2 4.2 N641 3.9 3.2 N762 3.3 2.9
N062 3.5 4.2 N311 5.6 4.6 N226 5.7 5.1 N642 3.1 3.5 N861 3.2 3.1
N063 4.9 4.9 N312 4.7 4.8 N227 4.4 3 N643 2.3 2.7 N961 3.6 4.3
N064 8.9 5.8 N313 3.9 4.6 N228 4.1 5.3 N644 3.8 5.5      
N065 6 5.6 N314 4.5 4.9 N321 4.5 4.8 N645 3.5 4      
N071 4.8 5.2 N315 5.9 4.8 N322 3.6 3.5 N646 2.7 3.3      
N072 4.4 6.3 N411 3.6 3.2 N323 5 4.6 N647 4.1 3.9      
N081 6.8 7.5 N412 4.7 5.9 N421 4.3 4 N648 4.5 5.2      
N091 4.8 5.4 N413 5.2 3.5 N521 5.2 3 N741 3.8 3.9    
      N414 3.5 3.4 N522 4.5 4.4 N742 4.9 5    
      N415 5.2 4.7 N523 2.7 3.2 N743 2.2 3.7    
      N416 4.3 5.1 N524 4.4 3.9 N744 3.3 4.1    
      N511 4.2 3.7 N525 3 5.1 N745 4.3 4    
      N512 4.6 4.4 N621 4.3 3.5 N841 4.1 2.8    
      N513 4.8 4 N622 3.9 3.1 N842 3.9 3    
            N623 4.5 3.1 N843 2.1 4.4    
            N624 4 5 N844 2.8 6    
            N625 3.7 5.1 N941 4.4 5.4    
            N626 3.9 3.9 N942 3.2 4.6    
            N627 3.7 3.2 N943 3.4 6.8    
            N721 4.5 4.2 N944 1 2.9    
            N722 4.5 4 N945 0.6 5.3    
            N723 3.4 3.4 N946 4.5 4.8    
            N724 5.1 4.2 N947 3.8 4.3    
            N725 3.2 4.6 N948 4.8 6.3    
            N726 3.8 4.4 N949 1.8 4.5    
            N727 2.8 4.4 N951 4 6.9    
            N728 3.3 4.3          
            N729 3.4 5.3          
            N731 4.4 4.4          
            N732 2.8 2.6          
            N733 3.4 3          
            N734 4.4 1.6          
            N735 4.2 3.1          
            N736 2.3 3.3          
            N737 4.8 4.2          
            N738 3.8 2.9          
            N822 5.3 2.4          
            N823 5.4 5.5          
            N824 3.6 2.3          
            N825 3.9 2.6          
            N826 4 3.9          
            N921 4.6 4.5          
            N922 4.5 4.6          
            N923 5.5 4.4          

Source: HRSDC 2011 COPS Reference Scenario.

Return at position of Figure 5 - Job Openings and Job Seekers by Occupation over 2011-2020, as a Percentage of 2010 Employment

The outlook for labour market conditions by occupation is determined using observed conditions in recent years and projected trends in job seekers and job openings

This table shows the interaction between recent labour market conditions and future labour market conditions to establish the occupational outlook of the 140 occupations covered by COPS.

An occupation is:

A) Balanced if:

B) In Shortage (surplus) if:

C) Uncertain if:

In the table, two cells are grey. Those grey cells represent occupations for which the final outlook is more difficult to assess. Indeed, since we cannot quantify the imbalance in recent labour market conditions it is difficult to give an occupational outlook to occupations that are in surplus (or in shortage) in recent conditions and projections show substantially more job openings than job seekers (substantially more job seekers than job openings).

Return at position of Figure 6 - The outlook for labour market conditions by occupation is determined using observed conditions in recent years and projected trends in job seekers and job openings

Occupations projected to face shortages or surpluses

  Gap between Future Job Openings and Job Seekers
Recent Labour Market Conditions      
  Job Openings > Job SeekersJob Openings = Job SeekersJob Openings < Job Seekers
Shortage 031, 112, 311, 315, 822 041, 071, 214, 215, 312, 314, 321, 341, 411, 416, 626, 646 211
Balance 064, 122, 216, 413, 623, 821, 825 001, 011, 012, 021, 061, 062, 063, 065, 081, 091, 111, 121, 123, 143, 146, 212, 213, 222, 223, 224, 225, 226, 227, 228, 313, 322, 323, 412, 414, 415, 421, 511, 512, 513, 522, 523, 524, 621, 622, 625, 627, 641, 645, 647, 648, 666, 721, 722, 724, 725, 731, 732, 733, 735, 737, 738, 741, 823, 921, 942 013, 051, 072, 147, 217, 525, 729, 743
Surplus 124, 144, 824, 841 141, 221, 521, 624, 642, 643, 661, 662, 664, 665, 667, 668, 723, 726, 728, 734, 736, 742, 744, 745, 761, 762, 826, 842, 861, 922, 923, 941, 946, 947, 961 142, 145, 644, 727, 843, 844, 943, 944, 945, 948, 949, 951

Source: HRSDC 2011 COPS Reference Scenario.

Return at position of Figure 7 - Occupations projected to face shortages or surpluses

Increasing the number of job seekers to meet projected job openings will pose significant challenges in many occupations

Figure 8 - Excess Job Openings Versus New Labour Market Entrants from the School System and Immigration for Selected Occupations, 2011-2020 The source is located after the table
  Managers in Health, Education, Social and Community ServicesPhysicians, Dentists and VeterinariansNurse Supervisors and Registered NursesCollege and Other Vocational InstructorsInsurance and Real Estate Sales Occupations and BuyersSupervisors Mining, Oil and GasContractors, Operators and Supervisors in Agriculture, Horticulture and AquacultureMine service workers and Operators in Oil and Gas Drilling
School Leavers 11.2 25.3 73.5 21.8 40.6 3.0 25.1 5.1
Immigration 2.0 7.1 11.9 5.4 6.0 0.2 4.9 0.2
Excess Demand 14.7 11.0 33.3 17.7 28.7 7.6 34.1 1.8

Source: HRSDC 2011 COPS Reference Scenario.

Return at position of Figure 8 - Excess Job Openings Versus New Labour Market Entrants from the School System and Immigration for Selected Occupations, 2011-2020

Example of an occupation with a projected shortage - Supervisors, mining, oil and gas (NOC 822) – Skill Level B

Projected Job Openings and Job Seekers The source is located after the table
NOC 822
Job OpeningsJob Seekers
Expansion Demand 6.6 School Leavers 3.0
Retirements 5.2 Immigration 0.2
Deaths 0.8 Mobility 1.20
Emigration 0.6 Others 1.06

Source: HRSDC 2011 COPS Reference Scenario.

Return at position of Figure 9 - Example of an occupation with a projected shortage - Supervisors, mining, oil and gas (NOC 822) – Skill Level B

Example of an occupation projected to be in surplus – Machining, metalworking, woodworking and related machine operators (NOC 951) – Skill Level C

  Machining / MetalworkingWoodworking Operators
Job OpeningsJob Seekers
NOC 951Expansion Demand 6.7 School Leavers 15.7
Retirements 21.6 Immigration 10.2
Deaths 2.1 Mobility 28.50
Emigration 1.8 Others -0.35

Source: HRSDC 2011 COPS Reference Scenario.

Return at position of Figure 10 - Example of an occupation projected to be in surplus – Machining, metalworking, woodworking and related machine operators (NOC 951) – Skill Level C

Outlook for management occupations, 2011-2020

Management OccupationsShortageBalanceSurplus
Number of Occupations 4 10 3
Employment in Bace Year
(2010)		 343,000 1,081,000 66,000
Share Total Employment in 2010 2.2% 6.9% 0.4%

Source: HRSDC 2011 COPS Reference Scenario.

Return at position of Figure 11 - Outlook for management occupations, 2011-2020

Outlook for occupations usually requiring universityeducation (Skill Level A), 2011-2020

Occupations usually requiring university education
(Skill level A)		ShortageBalanceSurplus
Number of Occupations 11 11 1
Employment in Bace Year
(2010)		 1,147,000 1,510,000 373,000
Share Total Employment in 2010 7.3% 9.5% 2.4%

Source: HRSDC 2011 COPS Reference Scenario.

Return at position of Figure 12 - Outlook for occupations usually requiring universityeducation (Skill Level A), 2011-2020

Outlook for occupations usually requiring college education or apprenticeship training (Skill Level B), 2011-2020

Occupations usually requiring college education
or apprenticeshiptraining
(Skill level B)		ShortageBalanceSurplus
Number of Occupations 7 33 14
Employment in Bace Year
(2010)		 1,043,343 3,367,479 920,491
Share Total Employment in 2010 6.6% 21.4% 5.9%

Source: HRSDC 2011 COPS Reference Scenario.

Return at position of Figure 13 - Outlook for occupations usually requiring college education or apprenticeship training (Skill Level B), 2011-2020

Outlook for occupations usually requiring high school education (Skill Level C), 2011-2020

Occupations usually requiring high school education
(Skill level C)		ShortageBalanceSurplus
Number of Occupations 2 9 24
Employment in Bace Year
(2010)		 356,000 1,758,000 2,250,000
Share Total Employment in 2010 2.3% 11.2% 14.3%

Source: HRSDC 2011 COPS Reference Scenario.

Return at position of Figure 14 - Outlook for occupations usually requiring high school education (Skill Level C), 2011-2020

Outlook for Occupations usually requiring on-the-job training (Skill Level D), 2011-2020

Occupations usually requiring on-the-job training
(Skill level D)		ShortageBalanceSurplus
Number of Occupations 0 1 210
Employment in Bace Year
(2010)		 0 404,000 1,121,000
Share Total Employment in 2010 0% 2.6% 7.1%

Source: HRSDC 2011 COPS Reference Scenario.

Return at position of Figure 15 - Outlook for Occupations usually requiring on-the-job training (Skill Level D), 2011-2020

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