Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Data for the Figures of Industrial Scenario (2017-2026)

Figure 1 - Real GDP Growth by Aggregate Sector over the Periods 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
  All Industries Primary Manufacturing Construction Services
2007-2016 1.5% 1.2% -0.9% 1.8% 2.0%
2017-2026 1.9% 2.2% 1.6% 1.7% 2.0%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 1 - Real GDP Growth by Aggregate Sector over the Periods 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 2 - Employment Growth by Aggregate Sector over the Periods 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
  All Industries Primary Manufacturing Construction Services
2007-2016 1.0% -1.0% -2.1% 2.6% 1.4%
2017-2026 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.9% 1.0%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 2 - Employment Growth by Aggregate Sector over the Periods 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 3: Productivity Growth by Aggregate Sector* (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
  All Industries Primary Manufacturing Construction Services
2007-2016 0.5% 2.2% 1.2% -0.8% 0.6%
2017-2026 1.0% 2.1% 1.2% 0.8% 0.9%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).
* Note: In this document, the term productivity always refers to labour productivity.

Return at position of Figure 3: Productivity Growth by Aggregate Sector* (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 4 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth by Aggregate Sector, Projections 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
  All Industries Primary Manufacturing Construction Services
Employment Growth 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.9% 1.0%
Productivity Growth* 1.0% 2.1% 1.2% 0.8% 1.0%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).
* Note: In this document, the term productivity always refers to labour productivity.

Return at position of Figure 4 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth by Aggregate Sector, Projections 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 5a - Distribution of Real GDP by Aggregate Sector (in percentage of total real GDP), 1997-2026The source is located after the table
  Primary Manufacturing Construction Services (right axis)
1997 11.8% 15.1% 6.2% 66.9%
1998 11.6% 15.3% 6.1% 66.9%
1999 11.2% 15.7% 6.1% 67.0%
2000 10.9% 16.4% 6.1% 66.6%
2001 10.5% 15.5% 6.4% 67.6%
2002 10.5% 15.2% 6.5% 67.7%
2003 10.7% 14.8% 6.6% 68.0%
2004 10.6% 14.6% 6.8% 68.0%
2005 10.4% 14.4% 6.9% 68.3%
2006 10.3% 13.8% 7.0% 68.9%
2007 10.1% 13.1% 7.1% 69.6%
2008 10.0% 12.3% 7.3% 70.4%
2009 9.3% 11.0% 7.0% 72.6%
2010 9.7% 11.1% 7.4% 71.8%
2011 10.0% 11.1% 7.4% 71.4%
2012 9.7% 11.1% 7.8% 71.4%
2013 10.2% 10.8% 8.0% 71.1%
2014 10.4% 10.8% 7.9% 70.9%
2015 10.0% 10.7% 7.5% 71.8%
2016 9.8% 10.6% 7.2% 72.4%
2017 10.1% 10.6% 7.1% 72.2%
2018 10.2% 10.5% 7.1% 72.2%
2019 10.3% 10.5% 7.0% 72.2%
2020 10.3% 10.5% 7.0% 72.2%
2021 10.3% 10.5% 7.0% 72.2%
2022 10.3% 10.5% 7.1% 72.2%
2023 10.2% 10.4% 7.1% 72.3%
2024 10.2% 10.4% 7.0% 72.4%
2025 10.1% 10.4% 7.0% 72.5%
2026 10.1% 10.3% 7.0% 72.6%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).

Figure 5b - Percentage Distribution of Employment by Aggregate Sector (in percentage of total employment), 1990-2026The source is located after the table
  Primary Manufacturing Construction Services
1990 5.7% 15.7% 6.2% 72.4%
1991 5.8% 14.7% 5.7% 73.7%
1992 5.7% 14.3% 5.6% 74.5%
1993 5.6% 13.9% 5.4% 75.1%
1994 5.5% 14.0% 5.5% 75.0%
1995 5.4% 14.3% 5.5% 74.8%
1996 5.3% 14.3% 5.3% 75.1%
1997 5.2% 14.7% 5.3% 74.8%
1998 5.1% 15.0% 5.2% 74.7%
1999 4.6% 15.2% 5.3% 74.9%
2000 4.4% 15.2% 5.5% 75.0%
2001 4.0% 14.9% 5.5% 75.6%
2002 3.9% 15.0% 5.6% 75.5%
2003 3.9% 14.5% 5.8% 75.8%
2004 3.8% 14.4% 6.0% 75.8%
2005 3.9% 13.7% 6.4% 76.0%
2006 4.2% 12.8% 6.5% 76.5%
2007 4.0% 12.1% 6.7% 77.1%
2008 3.9% 11.3% 7.2% 77.5%
2009 3.8% 10.4% 7.1% 78.6%
2010 3.7% 10.1% 7.3% 78.9%
2011 3.8% 10.0% 7.5% 78.7%
2012 3.9% 10.0% 7.6% 78.5%
2013 3.9% 9.7% 7.7% 78.7%
2014 3.8% 9.6% 7.7% 78.9%
2015 3.6% 9.5% 7.6% 79.2%
2016 3.4% 9.4% 7.7% 79.5%
2017 3.3% 9.3% 7.7% 79.7%
2018 3.3% 9.2% 7.6% 79.8%
2019 3.3% 9.2% 7.6% 79.9%
2020 3.3% 9.2% 7.6% 79.9%
2021 3.3% 9.1% 7.7% 79.9%
2022 3.3% 9.1% 7.7% 80.0%
2023 3.2% 9.0% 7.7% 80.1%
2024 3.2% 9.0% 7.7% 80.1%
2025 3.2% 8.9% 7.7% 80.2%
2026 3.1% 8.9% 7.7% 80.3%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 5 - Percentage Distribution of Real GDP and Employment by Aggregate Sector

 

Table 2A presents the employment levels and distribution in the top-three COPS industries in 2006, 2016 and 2026.

Table 2A: Employment in the Top-Three IndustriesThe source is located after the table
  Top-Three Industries Employment, in thousands Percentage share of total employment
2006 Retail Trade 2,017 12.3%
Health Care 1,335 8.1%
Construction 1,069 6.5%
2016 Retail Trade 2,068 11.4%
Health Care 1,835 10.2%
Construction 1,387 7.7%
2026 (Projection) Health Care 2,221 11.3%
Retail Trade 2,138 10.8%
Construction 1,518 7.7%

Table 2B presents the employment levels and distribution in the bottom-three COPS industries in 2006, 2016 and 2026.

Table 2B: Employment in the Bottom-Three Industries
  Bottom-Three Industries Employment, in thousands Percentage share of total employment
2006 Fishing, Hunting and Trapping 26 0.2%
Forestry and Logging 63 0.4%
Mining 64 0.4%
2016 Fishing, Hunting and Trapping 15 0.1%
Forestry and Logging 48 0.3%
Printing and Related Activities 59 0.4%
2026 (Projection) Fishing, Hunting and Trapping 13 0.1%
Forestry and Logging 47 0.2%
Printing and Related Activities 51 0.3%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).

Return at position of Table 2 - Employment in the Top- and Bottom-Three Industries in Terms of Employment

 
Figure 6 - Real GDP and Employment Growth: Primary Industries, Projections 2017-2026The source is located after the table
  Real GDP Growth Employment Growth
Agriculture 1.9% -0.7%
Forestry/Logging 0.8% -0.2%
Fishing/Hunting /Trapping 0.5% -1.5%
Oil/Gas Extraction 2.1% 0.6%
Mining 2% 0.8%
Support Activities for Mining/Oil/Gas Extraction 6.1% 1.5%
AVERAGE OF THE PRIMARY SECTOR 2.2% 0.1%

Source: ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 6 - Real GDP and Employment Growth: Primary Industries, Projections 2017-2026

 
Figure 7 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth: Primary Industries, Projections 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)
Sorted from the highest to the lowest in terms of Real GDP Growth
The source is located after the table
  Support Activities for Mining/Oil/Gas PRIMARY SECTOR AVERAGE Oil and Gas Extraction Mining Agriculture Forestry and Logging Fishing, Hunting and Trapping
Employment Growth 1.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% -0.7% -0.2% -1.5%
Productivity Growth* 4.6% 2.1% 1.5% 1.2% 2.6% 1.0% 2.0%

Source: ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).
* Note: In this document, the term productivity always refers to labour productivity.

Return at position of Figure 7 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth: Primary Industries, Projections 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 8 - Real GDP and Employment Growth: Manufacturing Industries, Projections 2017-2026The source is located after the table
  Real GDP Growth Employment Growth
Food/Beverage 1.3% 0.5%
Textile/Clothing/Furniture 1.0% -0.9%
Wood Products 1.4% 0.2%
Paper 0.1% -1.2%
Printing -0.2% -1.4%
Primary Metals/Mineral Porducts 2.0% 0.6%
Chemicals 2.1% 0.7%
Plastics/Rubber 2.3% 0.9%
Fabricated Metals/Machinery 1.9% 0.8%
Computer/Electronic 1.2% -0.3%
Motor Vehicles/Trailers/Parts 0.7% 0.6%
Aerospace/Rail/Ship 2.3% 1.0%
Miscellaneous 1.7% 0.7%
MANUFACTURING AVERAGE 1.6% 0.4%

Source: ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 8 - Real GDP and Employment Growth: Manufacturing Industries, Projections 2017-2026

 
Figure 9 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth: Manufacturing Industries, Projections 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)
Sorted from the highest to the lowest in terms of Real GDP Growth
The source is located after the table
  Employment Growth Productivity Growth*
Aerospace/Rail/Ship/Other Transp. Equip. 1.0% 1.3%
Plastics and Rubber Products 0.9% 1.4%
Chemical Products 0.7% 1.4%
Primary Metals and Mineral Products 0.6% 1.4%
Fabricated Metal Products and Machinery 0.8% 1.1%
Miscellaneous Manufacturing 0.7% 1.0%
MANUFACTURING AVERAGE 0.4% 1.2%
Wood Products 0.2% 1.2%
Food and Beverage Products 0.5% 0.8%
Computer, Electronic and Electrical Products -0.3% 1.5%
Textiles, Clothing, Leather and Furniture -0.9% 1.9%
Motor Vehicles, Trailers and Parts 0.6% 0.1%
Paper Manufacturing -1.2% 1.3%
Printing and Related Activities -1.4% 1.2%

Source: ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).
* Note: In this document, the term productivity always refers to labour productivity.

Return at position of Figure 9 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth: Manufacturing Industries, Projections 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 10 - Real GDP and Employment Growth: Comercial Services Industries, Projections 2017-2026The source is located after the table
  Real GDP Growth Employment Growth
Wholesale Trade 1.9% 0.8%
Retail Trade 1.9% 0.3%
Truck and Ground Passenger Transportation 2.0% 0.8%
Air, Rail, Water and Pipeline Transportation 2.2% 1.1%
Postal, Courier, Warehousing, Storage Services 0.9% 0.2%
Information, Culture and Telecommunications 1.7% 0.6%
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) 2.1% 0.8%
Legal, Accounting and Consulting Services 2.6% 1.3%
Computer Systems Design and Related Services 3.7% 1.9%
Architectural, Engineering, Design, R&D Services 2.4% 1.3%
Management, Administrative and Other Support 1.9% 1.0%
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 1.9% 1.3%
Accommodation Services 1.5% 0.6%
Food Services 1.7% 1.2%
Repair, Personal and Household Services 1.8% 0.5%
Electric, Gas and Water Utilities 1.5% 0.7%
COMMERCIAL SERVICES AVERAGE 2.0% 0.8%

Source: ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 10 - Real GDP and Employment Growth: Comercial Services Industries, Projections 2017-2026

 
Figure 11 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth: Commercial Services Industries, Projections 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)
Sorted from the highest to the lowest in terms of Real GDP Growth
The source is located after the table
  Employment Growth Productivity Growth*
Computer Systems Design/Related Services 1.9% 1.8%
Legal/Accounting/Consulting Services 1.3% 1.3%
Architectural/Engineering/R&D Services 1.3% 1.1%
Air/Rail/Water/Pipeline Transportation 1.1% 1.1%
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate (FIRE) 0.8% 1.3%
COMMERCIAL SERVICES AVERAGE 0.8% 1.3%
Truck/Ground Passenger Transportation 0.8% 1.2%
Wholesale Trade 0.8% 1.1%
Retail Trade 0.3% 1.6%
Management/Admin/Other Support 1% 0.9%
Arts/Entertainment/Recreation 1.3% 0.6%
Repair/Personal/Household Services 0.5% 1.3%
Information/Culture/Telecommunications 0.6% 1.1%
Food Services 1.2% 0.5%
Accommodation Services 0.6% 0.9%
Electric/Gas/Water Utilities 0.7% 0.8%
Postal/Courier/Warehousing/Storage 0.2% 0.7%

Source: ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).
* Note: In this document, the term productivity always refers to labour productivity.

Return at position of Figure 11 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth: Commercial Services Industries, Projections 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 12 - Real GDP and Employment Growth: Non-Comercial Services Industries, Projections 2017-2026The source is located after the table
  Real GDP Growth Employment Growth
Elementary and Secondary Schools 1.5% 0.9%
Colleges, CEGEPs and Vocational Schools 0.4% 0.4%
Universities 0.6% 0.3%
Health Care 2.7% 1.9%
Social Assistance 2.4% 1.3%
Public Administration 1.1% 0.4%
NON-COMMERCIAL SERVICES AVERAGE 1.7% 1.2%

Source: ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 12 - Real GDP and Employment Growth: Non-Comercial Services Industries, Projections 2017-2026

 
Figure 13 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth: Non-Commercial Services Industries, Projections 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)
Sorted from the highest to the lowest in terms of Real GDP Growth
The source is located after the table
  Employment Growth Productivity Growth*
Health Care 1.9% 0.8%
Social Assistance 1.3% 1.1%
NON-COMMERCIAL SERVICES AVERAGE 1.2% 0.5%
Elementary and Secondary Schools 0.9% 0.6%
Public Administration 0.4% 0.7%
Universities 0.3% 0.3%
Colleges, CEGEPs and Vocational Schools 0.4% 0.0%

Source: ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).
* Note: In this document, the term productivity always refers to labour productivity.

Return at position of Figure 13 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth: Non-Commercial Services Industries, Projections 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 14 - Industries Projected to Post the Strongest Growth in Employment, 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)
  Employment Growth
Health Care* 1.9%
Computer Systems Design and Related Services 1.9%
Support Activities for Mining, Oil and Gas Extraction 1.5%
Social Assistance* 1.3%
Legal, Accounting, Consulting and Other Prof. Services* 1.3%
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 1.3%
Food Services* 1.3%
Architectural, Engineering, Design and R&D Services 1.3%
Management, Administrative and Other Support Services 1.2%
Aerospace, Rail, Ship and Other Transport. Equipment 1.1%
Air, Rail, Water and Pipeline Transportation Services 1.1%

Source: ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).
*industries with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2016).

Return at position of Figure 14 - Industries Projected to Post the Strongest Growth in Employment, 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 15 - Industries Projected to Post Average or Moderate Growth in Employment, 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)
  Employment Growth
Plastic and Rubber Products 0.9%
Elementary and Secondary Schools* 0.9%
Construction 0.9%
Wholesale Trade 0.8%
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Services* 0.8%
Truck and Ground Passenger Transportation Services 0.8%
Mining 0.8%
Fabricated Metal Products and Machinery 0.8%
Chemical Products 0.7%
Miscellaneous Manufacturing 0.7%
Electric, Gas and Water Utilities 0.7%
Oil and Gas Extraction 0.6%
Motor Vehicles, Trailers and Parts 0.6%
Primary Metals and Mineral Products 0.6%
Accommodation Services* 0.6%
Information, Culture and Telecommunications Services 0.6%

Source: ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).
*industries with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2016).

Return at position of Figure 15 - Industries Projected to Post Average or Moderate Growth in Employment, 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 16 - Industries Projected to Post the Weakest Growth or Declines in Employment, 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)
  Employment Growth
Food and Beverage Products 0.5%
Repair, Personal and Household Services* 0.5%
Public Administration* 0.4%
Colleges, CEGEPs and Vocational Schools* 0.4%
Retail Trade* 0.3%
Universities* 0.3%
Wood Product Manufacturing 0.2%
Postal, Courier, Warehousing and Storage Services 0.2%
Forestry and Logging -0.2%
Computer, Electronic and Electrical Products -0.3%
Agriculture -0.7%
Textiles, Clothing, Leather and Furniture -0.9%
Paper Manufacturing -1.2%
Printing and Related Activities -1.4%
Fishing, Hunting and Trapping -1.5%

Source: ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).
*industries with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2016).

Return at position of Figure 16 - Industries Projected to Post the Weakest Growth or Declines in Employment, 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 17 - Industries Projected to Post the Largest Growth in Employment, 2017-2026 (cumulative change, in thousands)
  Employment Growth
Health Care* 385.6
Construction 131.5
Food Services* 127.9
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Services* 92.7
Legal, Accounting, Consulting and Other Prof. Services* 89.7
Management, Administrative and Other Support Services 82.3
Computer System Design and Related Services 72.0
Elementary and Secondary Schools* 71.8
Social Assistance* 71.4
Retail Trade* 71.2

Source: ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).
*industries with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2016).

Return at position of Figure 17 - Industries Projected to Post the Largest Growth in Employment, 2017-2026 (cumulative change, in thousands)

 
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