Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Data for the Figures of Industrial Outlook (2019-2028)

Figure 1 - Real GDP Growth by Aggregate Sector over the Periods 2009-2018 and 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
  All Industries Primary Manufacturing Construction Services
2009-2018 1.7% 2.3% 0.5% 1.8% 1.9%
2019-2028 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.1% 1.9%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2019 COPS industrial outlook.

Return at position of Figure 1 - Real GDP Growth by Aggregate Sector over the Periods 2009-2018 and 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 2 - Employment Growth by Aggregate Sector over the Periods 2009-2018 and 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
  All Industries Primary Manufacturing Construction Services
2009-2018 0.9% -0.8% -1.1% 1.6% 1.2%
2019-2028 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2019 COPS industrial outlook.

Return at position of Figure 2 - Employment Growth by Aggregate Sector over the Periods 2009-2018 and 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 3: Productivity Growth by Aggregate Sector* (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
  All Industries Primary Manufacturing Construction Services
2009-2018 0.7% 3.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.7%
2019-2028 0.8% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.9%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2019 COPS industrial outlook.
* Note: In this document, the term productivity always refers to labour productivity.

Return at position of Figure 3: Productivity Growth by Aggregate Sector* (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 4 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth by Aggregate Sector, Projection 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
  All Industries Primary Manufacturing Construction Services
Employment Growth 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0%
Productivity Growth* 0.8% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.9%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2019 COPS industrial outlook.
* Note: In this document, the term productivity always refers to labour productivity.

Return at position of Figure 4 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth by Aggregate Sector, Projection 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 5a - Distribution of Real GDP by Aggregate Sector (in percentage of total real GDP), 1998-2028The source is located after the table
  Primary Manufacturing Construction Services
1998 10.5% 14.8% 6.2% 68.6%
1999 10.5% 15.0% 6.1% 68.3%
2000 10.2% 15.6% 6.1% 68.0%
2001 10.0% 15.0% 6.4% 68.6%
2002 9.7% 14.7% 6.5% 69.0%
2003 10.0% 14.2% 6.6% 69.1%
2004 10.2% 14.1% 6.7% 69.0%
2005 10.1% 13.8% 6.8% 69.2%
2006 10.0% 13.2% 6.9% 69.8%
2007 9.6% 12.6% 7.2% 70.6%
2008 9.6% 11.9% 7.3% 71.3%
2009 8.8% 10.7% 7.1% 73.4%
2010 9.2% 10.7% 7.4% 72.6%
2011 9.5% 10.8% 7.5% 72.3%
2012 9.2% 10.7% 7.9% 72.2%
2013 9.7% 10.4% 8.0% 71.9%
2014 9.8% 10.4% 8.0% 71.7%
2015 9.8% 10.4% 7.8% 72.1%
2016 9.6% 10.4% 7.3% 72.7%
2017 9.9% 10.4% 7.4% 72.3%
2018 10.1% 10.4% 7.3% 72.2%
2019 10.0% 10.4% 7.0% 72.6%
2020 10.0% 10.4% 7.1% 72.5%
2021 10.1% 10.3% 7.2% 72.5%
2022 10.1% 10.3% 7.1% 72.5%
2023 10.1% 10.3% 7.1% 72.5%
2024 10.1% 10.3% 7.0% 72.6%
2025 10.2% 10.3% 6.9% 72.6%
2026 10.2% 10.2% 6.8% 72.7%
2027 10.1% 10.2% 6.8% 72.8%
2028 10.0% 10.2% 6.8% 73.0%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2019 COPS industrial outlook.

Figure 5b - Percentage Distribution of Employment by Aggregate Sector (in percentage of total employment), 1998-2028The source is located after the table
  Primary Manufacturing Construction Services
1998 5.1% 15.0% 5.2% 74.7%
1999 4.6% 15.2% 5.3% 74.9%
2000 4.4% 15.2% 5.5% 75.0%
2001 4.0% 14.9% 5.5% 75.6%
2002 3.9% 15.0% 5.6% 75.5%
2003 3.9% 14.5% 5.8% 75.8%
2004 3.8% 14.4% 6.0% 75.8%
2005 3.9% 13.7% 6.4% 76.0%
2006 4.2% 12.8% 6.5% 76.5%
2007 4.0% 12.1% 6.7% 77.1%
2008 3.9% 11.3% 7.2% 77.5%
2009 3.8% 10.4% 7.1% 78.6%
2010 3.7% 10.1% 7.3% 78.9%
2011 3.8% 10.0% 7.5% 78.7%
2012 3.9% 10.0% 7.6% 78.5%
2013 3.9% 9.7% 7.7% 78.7%
2014 3.8% 9.6% 7.7% 78.9%
2015 3.6% 9.5% 7.6% 79.2%
2016 3.4% 9.4% 7.7% 79.6%
2017 3.3% 9.4% 7.7% 79.7%
2018 3.3% 9.3% 7.7% 79.7%
2019 3.3% 9.2% 7.6% 80.0%
2020 3.3% 9.1% 7.6% 80.0%
2021 3.2% 9.1% 7.6% 80.1%
2022 3.2% 9.1% 7.5% 80.2%
2023 3.2% 9.0% 7.5% 80.3%
2024 3.2% 9.0% 7.5% 80.4%
2025 3.1% 8.9% 7.4% 80.5%
2026 3.1% 8.9% 7.4% 80.6%
2027 3.1% 8.9% 7.4% 80.7%
2028 3.0% 8.8% 7.4% 80.8%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2019 COPS industrial outlook.

Return at position of Figure 5 - Percentage Distribution of Real GDP and Employment by Aggregate Sector

 

Table 2A presents the employment levels and distribution in the top-three COPS industries in 2008, 2018 and 2028.

Table 2A: Employment in the Top-Three IndustriesThe source is located after the table
  Top-Three Industries Employment, in thousands Percentage share of total employment
2008 Retail Trade 2,052 12.1%
Health Care 1,450 8.5%
Construction 1,232 7.2%
2018 Retail Trade 2,138 11.5%
Health Care 1,903 10.2%
Construction 1,439 7.7%
2028 (Projection) Health Care 2,368 11.6%
Retail Trade 2,234 10.9%
Construction 1,508 7.4%

Table 2B presents the employment levels and distribution in the bottom-three COPS industries in 2008, 2018 and 2028.

Table 2B: Employment in the Bottom-Three Industries
  Bottom-Three Industries Employment, in thousands Percentage share of total employment
2008 Fishing, Hunting and Trapping 22 0.1%
Forestry and Logging 54 0.3%
Mining 75 0.4%
2018 Fishing, Hunting and Trapping 16 0.1%
Forestry and Logging 52 0.3%
Paper Manufacturing 60 0.3%
2028 (Projection) Fishing, Hunting and Trapping 13 0.1%
Forestry and Logging 50 0.2%
Paper Manufacturing 52 0.3%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2019 COPS industrial outlook.

Return at position of Table 2 - Employment in the Top- and Bottom-Three Industries in Terms of Employment

 
Figure 6 - Real GDP and Employment Growth: Primary Industries, Projection 2019-2028The source is located after the table
  Real GDP Growth Employment Growth
Agriculture 2.4% -0.3%
Forestry/Logging -0.1% -0.3%
Fishing/Hunting/Trapping -0.1% -2.6%
Oil/Gas Extraction 2.0% 0.5%
Mining 0.7% 0.6%
Support Activities for Mining/Oil/Gas Extraction 0.4% 0.6%
AVERAGE OF THE PRIMARY SECTOR 1.6% 0.1%

Source: ESDC 2019 COPS industrial outlook.

Return at position of Figure 6 - Real GDP and Employment Growth: Primary Industries, Projection 2019-2028

 
Figure 7 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth: Primary Industries, Projection 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)
Sorted from the highest to the lowest in terms of Real GDP Growth
The source is located after the table
  Agriculture Oil and Gas Extraction PRIMARY SECTOR AVERAGE Mining Support Activities for Mining/Oil/Gas Forestry and Logging Fishing, Hunting and Trapping
Employment Growth -0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% -0.3% -2.6%
Productivity Growth* 2.7% 1.5% 1.6% 0.1% -0.2% 0.3% 2.5%

Source: ESDC 2019 COPS industrial outlook.
* Note: In this document, the term productivity always refers to labour productivity.

Return at position of Figure 7 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth: Primary Industries, Projection 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 8 - Real GDP and Employment Growth: Manufacturing Industries, Projection 2019-2028The source is located after the table
  Real GDP Growth Employment Growth
Food/Beverage 1.2% 0.5%
Textile/Clothing/Furniture 1.0% 0.0%
Wood Products 0.8% -0.4%
Paper -0.3% -1.4%
Printing 0.1% -1.0%
Primary Metals/Mineral Products 2.0% 0.6%
Chemicals 1.8% 0.7%
Plastics/Rubber 2.0% 0.6%
Fabricated Metals/Machinery 2.1% 1.0%
Computer/Electronic 1.9% 0.3%
Motor Vehicles/Trailers/Parts 0.7% 0.3%
Aerospace/Rail/Ship 2.0% 0.8%
Miscellaneous 1.8% 0.7%
MANUFACTURING AVERAGE 1.5% 0.4%

Source: ESDC 2019 COPS industrial outlook.

Return at position of Figure 8 - Real GDP and Employment Growth: Manufacturing Industries, Projection 2019-2028

 
Figure 9 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth: Manufacturing Industries, Projection 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)
Sorted from the highest to the lowest in terms of Real GDP Growth
The source is located after the table
  Employment Growth Productivity Growth*
Fabricated Metal Products and Machinery 1.0% 1.1%
Aerospace/Rail/Ship/Other Transp. Equip. 0.8% 1.2%
Plastics and Rubber Products 0.6% 1.4%
Primary Metals and Mineral Products 0.6% 1.4%
Computer, Electronic and Electrical Products 0.3% 1.6%
Miscellaneous Manufacturing 0.7% 1.1%
Chemical Products 0.7% 1.1%
MANUFACTURING AVERAGE 0.4% 1.1%
Food and Beverage Products 0.5% 0.8%
Textile, Clothing Leather and Furniture 0.0% 1.0%
Wood Product Manufacturing -0.4% 1.2%
Motor Vehicles, Trailers and Parts 0.3% 0.4%
Printing and Related Activities -1.0% 1.1%
Paper Manufacturing -1.4% 1.1%

Source: ESDC 2019 COPS industrial outlook.
* Note: In this document, the term productivity always refers to labour productivity.

Return at position of Figure 9 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth: Manufacturing Industries, Projection 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 10 - Real GDP and Employment Growth: Comercial Services, Projection 2019-2028The source is located after the table
  Real GDP Growth Employment Growth
Wholesale Trade 1.4% 0.6%
Retail Trade 1.4% 0.4%
Truck and Ground Passenger Transportation 1.8% 0.8%
Air, Rail, Water and Pipeline Transportation 1.8% 1.0%
Postal, Courier, Warehousing, Storage Services 1.1% 0.4%
Information, Culture and Telecommunications 1.6% 0.5%
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) 2.2% 0.8%
Legal, Accounting and Consulting Services 2.5% 1.4%
Computer Systems Design and Related Services 3.0% 1.6%
Architectural, Engineering, Design, R&D Services 2.1% 0.9%
Management, Administrative and Other Support 1.9% 1.1%
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 1.7% 1.1%
Accommodation Services 1.6% 0.6%
Food Services 1.7% 1.0%
Repair, Personal and Household Services 1.9% 0.7%
Electric, Gas and Water Utilities 1.6% 0.3%
COMMERCIAL SERVICES AVERAGE 1.9% 0.9%

Source: ESDC 2019 COPS industrial outlook.

Return at position of Figure 10 - Real GDP and Employment Growth: Comercial Services, Projection 2019-2028

 
Figure 11 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth: Commercial Services Industries, Projection 2019-2028
Sorted from the highest to the lowest in terms of Real GDP Growth
The source is located after the table
  Employment Growth Productivity Growth*
Computer Systems Design and Related Services 2.3% 1.4%
Legal, Accounting and Consulting Services 1.4% 1.1%
Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) 0.8% 1.3%
Architectural, Engineering, Design, R&D Services 0.9% 1.2%
COMMERCIAL SERVICES AVERAGE 0.9% 1.0%
Management, Administrative and Other Support 1.1% 0.7%
Repair, Personal and Household Services 0.7% 1.1%
Truck and Ground Passenger Transportation 0.8% 1.0%
Air, Rail, Water and Pipeline Transportation 1.0% 0.8%
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 1.1% 0.6%
Food Services 1.0% 0.6%
Information, Culture and Telecommunications 0.5% 1.1%
Electric, Gas and Water Utilities 0.3% 1.2%
Accommodation Services 0.6% 0.9%
Wholesale Trade 0.6% 0.8%
Retail Trade 0.4% 1.0%
Postal, Courier, Warehousing, Storage Services 0.4% 0.7%

Source: ESDC 2019 COPS industrial outlook.
* Note: In this document, the term productivity always refers to labour productivity.

Return at position of Figure 11 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth: Commercial Services, Projection 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 12 - Real GDP and Employment Growth: Non-Commercial Services Industries, Projection 2019-2028The source is located after the table
  Real GDP Growth Employment Growth
Elementary and Secondary Schools 1.9% 0.9%
Colleges, CEGEPs and Vocational Schools 0.5% 0.4%
Universities 0.6% 0.3%
Health Care 2.8% 2.2%
Social Assistance 2.5% 1.5%
Public Administration 1.0% 0.4%
NON-COMMERCIAL SERVICES AVERAGE 1.8% 1.4%

Source: ESDC 2019 COPS industrial outlook.

Return at position of Figure 12 - Real GDP and Employment Growth: Non-Comercial Services Industries, Projection 2019-2028

 
Figure 13 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth: Non-Commercial Services Industries, Projection 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)
Sorted from the highest to the lowest in terms of Real GDP Growth
The source is located after the table
  Employment Growth Productivity Growth*
Health Care 2.2% 0.6%
Social Assistance 1.5% 0.9%
Elementary and Secondary Schools 0.9% 1.0%
NON-COMMERCIAL SERVICES AVERAGE 1.4% 0.5%
Public Administration 0.4% 0.6%
Universities 0.3% 0.3%
Colleges, CEGEPs and Vocational Schools 0.4% 0.1%

Source: ESDC 2019 COPS industrial outlook.
* Note: In this document, the term productivity always refers to labour productivity.

Return at position of Figure 13 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth: Non-Commercial Services Industries, Projection 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 14 - Industries Projected to Post the Strongest Growth in Employment, 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)
  Employment Growth
Computer Systems Design and Related Services 2.3%
Health Care* 2.2%
Social Assistance* 1.5%
Legal, Accounting, Consulting & Other Prof. Services* 1.4%
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Services 1.1%
Management, Administrative and Other Support Services 1.1%
Food Services* 1.0%
Air, Rail, Water and Pipeline Transportation Services 1.0%
Fabricated Metal Products and Machinery 1.0%
Elementary and Secondary Schools* 0.9%
Architectural, Engineering, Design and R&D Services 0.9%
ECONOMY AVERAGE 0.9%

Source: ESDC 2019 COPS industrial outlook.
*industries with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2018).

Return at position of Figure 14 - Industries Projected to Post the Strongest Growth in Employment, 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 15 - Industries Projected to Post Average or Moderate Growth in Employment, 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)
  Employment Growth
ECONOMY AVERAGE 0.9%
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Services* 0.8%
Truck and Ground Passenger Transportation Services 0.8%
Aerospace, Rail, Ship and Other Transp. Equipment 0.8%
Repair, Personal and Household Services* 0.7%
Miscellaneous Manufacturing 0.7%
Chemical Products 0.7%
Accommodation Services* 0.6%
Wholesale Trade 0.6%
Plastics and Rubber Products 0.6%
Primary Metals and Mineral Products 0.6%
Support Activities for Mining, Oil and Gas Extraction 0.6%
Mining 0.6%
Oil and Gas Extraction 0.5%
Information, Culture and Telecommunications Services 0.5%
Construction 0.5%
Food and Beverage Products 0.5%

Source: ESDC 2019 COPS industrial outlook.
*industries with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2018).

Return at position of Figure 15 - Industries Projected to Post Average or Moderate Growth in Employment, 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 16 - Industries Projected to Post the Weakest Growth or Declines in Employment, 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)
  Employment Growth
ECONOMY AVERAGE 0.9%
Retail Trade* 0.4%
Postal, Courier, Warehousing and Storage Services 0.4%
Colleges, CEGEPs and Vocational Schools* 0.4%
Public Administration* 0.4%
Electric, Gas and Water Utilities 0.3%
Universities* 0.3%
Motor Vehicles, Trailers and Parts 0.3%
Computer, Electronic and Electrical Products 0.3%
Textiles, Clothing, Leather and Furniture 0.0%
Agriculture -0.3%
Forestry and Logging -0.3%
Wood Product Manufacturing -0.4%
Printing and Related Activities -1.0%
Paper Manufacturing -1.4%
Fishing, Hunting and Trapping -2.6%

Source: ESDC 2019 COPS industrial outlook.
*industries with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2018).

Return at position of Figure 16 - Industries Projected to Post the Weakest Growth or Declines in Employment, 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 17 - Industries Projected to Post the Largest Increases in Employment, 2019-2028 (cumulative change, in thousands)
  Employment Growth
Health Care* 464.3
Food Services* 115.0
Computer System Design and Related Services 105.9
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Services* 102.0
Legal, Accounting, Consulting and Other Prof. Services* 97.8
Retail Trade* 95.6
Management, Administrative and Other Support Services 93.3
Social Assistance* 82.5
Elementary and Secondary Schools* 76.2
Construction 69.9

Source: ESDC 2019 COPS industrial outlook.
*industries with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2018).

Return at position of Figure 17 - Industries Projected to Post the Largest Increases in Employment, 2019-2028 (cumulative change, in thousands)

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