Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Data for Figures in Job Openings (2017-2026)

Figure 1, Industries Projected to Have the Strongest Employment Growth, 2017-2026, (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
Health Care 1.92%
Computer Systems Design and Related Services 1.91%
Support Activities for Mining, Oil and Gas Extraction 1.50%
Social Assistance 1.33%
Legal, Accounting, Consulting and Other Prof. Services 1.30%
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 1.27%
Food Services 1.26%
Architectural, Engineering, Design and Rsearch and Development Services 1.26%
Management, Administrative and Other Support Services 1.19%
Aerospace, Rail, Ship and Other Transportation Equipment 1.09%
Air, Rail, Water and Pipeline Transportation Services 1.09%

Source: ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 1 - Industries Projected to Have the Strongest Employment Growth, 2017-2026, (average annual growth, in percentage)

Figure 2: Industries Projected to Have Average or Moderate Employment Growth, 2017-2026, (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
Plastic and Rubber Products 0.94%
Elementary and Secondary Schools 0.91%
Construction 0.91%
Wholesale Trade 0.82%
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Services 0.79%
Truck and Ground Passenger Transportation Services 0.78%
Mining 0.78%
Fabricated Metal Products and Machinery 0.75%
Chemical Products 0.70%
Miscellaneous Manufacturing 0.69%
Electric, Gas and Water Utilities 0.67%
Oil and Gas Extraction 0.61%
Motor Vehicles, Trailers and Parts 0.60%
Primary Metals and Mineral Products 0.60%
Accommodation Services 0.58%
Information, Culture and Telecommunications Services 0.56%

Source: ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 2: Industries Projected to Have Average or Moderate Employment Growth, 2017-2026, (average annual growth, in percentage)

Figure 3: Industries Projected to Have the Weakest Growth or Declines in Employment, 2017-2026, (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
Food and Beverage Products 0.48%
Repair, Personal and Household Services 0.47%
Public Administration 0.45%
Colleges, CEGEPs and Vocational Schools 0.38%
Retail Trade 0.34%
Universities 0.32%
Wood Product Manufacturing 0.20%
Postal, Courier, Warehousing and Storage Services 0.19%
Forestry and Logging -0.23%
Computer, Electronic and Electrical Products -0.26%
Agriculture -0.67%
Textiles, Clothing, Leather and Furniture -0.85%
Paper Manufacturing -1.20%
Printing and Related Activities -1.38%
Fishing, Hunting and Trapping -1.54%

Source: ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 3: Industries Projected to Have the Weakest Growth or Declines in Employment, 2017-2026, (average annual growth, in percentage)

Figure 4: High- and Low-skilled Average Annual Employment Change, 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 The source is located after the table
  1997-2006 2007-2016 2017-2026
Annual Change, High-Skilled 177,189 178,059 124,604
Annual Change, Low-Skilled 120,525 -9,669 39,113

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS Projections

Return at position of Figure 4: High- and Low-skilled Average Annual Employment Change, 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026

Figure 5: Distribution of Expansion Demand by Skill Level, 2017-2026 (in thousands) The source is located after the table
Expansion Demand Management Skill Level A (university education) Skill Level B (college education) Skill Level C (high school education) Skill Level D (on-the-job training)
2017-2026 (in thousands) 77 563 606 241 150
Distribution share by skill level 4.7% 34.4% 37.0% 14.7% 9.1%

Sources: ESDC 2017 COPS Projections

Return at position of Figure 5: Distribution of Expansion Demand by Skill Level, 2017-2026 (in thousands)

Figure 6: Distribution of Employment by Skill Level: 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 The source is located after the table
Employment by Skill Level-Share 2007-2016 2017-2026
Management 9.7% 8.7%
Skill Level A (university education) 18.6% 20.8%
Skill Level B (college education) 32.6% 34.5%
Skill Level C (high school education) 28.2% 25.3%
Skill Level D (on-the-job training) 10.8% 10.7%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS Projections

Return at position of Figure 6: Distribution of Employment by Skill Level: 2007-2016 and 2017-2026

Figure 7: Sources of Replacement Demand over the Periods 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (in thousands)The source is located after the table
  1997-2006 2007-2016 2017-2026
Retirements 1,895 2,902 3,895
Emigration 358 438 511
In-Service Mortality 349 275 306

Note: Historical retirements are constructed using data from the Longitudinal Administrative Database (LAD). Retirement is defined as a complete and permanent withdrawal from the labour market

Sources: ESDC estimates (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS Projections.

Return at position of Figure 7: Sources of Replacement Demand over the Periods 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (in thousands)

Figure 8: Overall Retirement Rate and Indexed Growth of Retirements and Employment (2005=100), 1998-2026The source is located after the table
  Indexed Retirements (2005=100) Indexed Employment (2005=100) Overall Retirement Rate
1998 87.1 83.8 1.2%
1999 89.3 83.9 1.2%
2000 91.5 93.5 1.3%
2001 92.6 92.7 1.2%
2002 94.8 91.8 1.2%
2003 97.1 97.1 1.2%
2004 98.7 98.8 1.2%
2005 100.0 100.0 1.2%
2006 101.7 103.3 1.3%
2007 104.0 120.2 1.4%
2008 105.5 123.6 1.5%
2009 103.8 127.9 1.5%
2010 105.2 126.7 1.5%
2011 106.8 139.0 1.6%
2012 108.2 147.6 1.7%
2013 109.7 156.0 1.8%
2014 110.4 162.3 1.8%
2015 111.3 167.0 1.9%
2016 112.1 173.7 1.9%
2017 113.5 178.0 2.0%
2018 114.6 183.4 2.0%
2019 115.6 188.4 2.0%
2020 116.7 192.7 2.1%
2021 117.7 196.2 2.1%
2022 118.7 198.7 2.1%
2023 119.7 200.4 2.1%
2024 120.6 200.9 2.1%
2025 121.4 200.5 2.1%
2026 122.3 199.2 2.0%

Note: Historical retirements are constructed using data from the Longitudinal Administrative Database (LAD). Retirement is defined as a complete and permanent withdrawal from the labour market

Sources: ESDC estimates (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS Projections.

Return at position of Figure 8: Overall Retirement Rate and Indexed Growth of Retirements and Employment (2005=100), 1998-2026

Figure 9: Share of the Population Aged 50 and Over and their Retirement Rate, 1990-2026The source is located after the table
  Population Share (50+) Retirement rate (50+)
1990 30.8% 8.7%
1991 31.1% 8.8%
1992 31.3% 8.5%
1993 31.7% 8.3%
1994 31.9% 8.1%
1995 32.1% 7.8%
1996 32.5% 7.4%
1997 33.1% 7.6%
1998 33.6% 6.2%
1999 34.2% 5.8%
2000 34.8% 6.1%
2001 35.3% 5.8%
2002 35.7% 5.5%
2003 36.3% 5.4%
2004 36.9% 5.2%
2005 37.6% 5.0%
2006 38.3% 4.9%
2007 39.1% 5.4%
2008 39.7% 5.3%
2009 40.4% 5.4%
2010 41.0% 5.1%
2011 41.8% 5.4%
2012 42.6% 5.5%
2013 43.2% 5.6%
2014 43.9% 5.7%
2015 44.3% 5.8%
2016 44.8% 5.9%
2017 45.1% 6.0%
2018 45.4% 6.1%
2019 45.7% 6.2%
2020 46.0% 6.3%
2021 46.3% 6.3%
2022 46.5% 6.4%
2023 46.6% 6.4%
2024 46.7% 6.4%
2025 46.9% 6.3%
2026 47.1% 6.3%

Note: Historical retirements are constructed using data from the Longitudinal Administrative Database (LAD). Retirement is defined as a complete and permanent withdrawal from the labour market

Sources: ESDC estimates (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS Projections.

Return at position of Figure 9: Share of the Population Aged 50 and Over and their Retirement Rate, 1990-2026

Figure 10: Distribution of Retirements by Skill Level, 2017-2026 (in thousands) The source is located after the table
  Management Skill Level A (university education) Skill Level B (college education) Skill Level C (high school education) Skill Level D (on-the-job training)
Retirement 481,868 742,422 1,296,209 1,040,775 334,117
Share of retirement by skill level 12% 19% 33% 27% 9%

Sources: ESDC 2017 COPS Projections.

Return at position of Figure 10: Distribution of Retirements by Skill Level, 2017-2026 (in thousands)

Figure 11: Distribution of Retirements by Skill Level, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  2007-2016 2017-2026
Management 13.2% 12.4%
Skill Level A (university education) 20.0% 19.1%
Skill Level B (college education) 31.8% 33.3%
Skill Level C (high school education) 26.9% 26.7%
Skill Level D (on-the-job training) 8.1% 8.6%

Sources: ESDC 2017 COPS Projections (estimated retirements over the historical period obtained by using data from the Longitudinal Administrative Database (LAD) from Statistics Canada and Labour Force Survey).

Return at position of Figure 11: Distribution of Retirements by Skill Level, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (in percentage)

Figure 12: Job Openings from Expansion Demand and Replacement Demand over the Periods 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (in thousands)The source is located after the table
  1997-2006 2007-2016 2017-2026
Expansion Demand 2,977,100 1,683,900 1,637,200
Expansion Demand Percentage Share 53.4% 31.8% 25.8%
Replacement Demand 2,602,100 3,613,900 4,712,500
Replacement Demand Percentage Share 46.6% 68.2% 74.2%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS Projections

Return at position of Figure 12: Job Openings from Expansion Demand and Replacement Demand over the Periods 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (in thousands)

Figure 13: Job Openings from Expansion and Replacement Demand by Skill Level, 2017-2026 (in thousands) The source is located after the table
  Expansion Demand Retirements Other Replacement Demand Total Share
Management 481,868 76,542 86,520 644,930 10.2%
Skill Level A (university education) 742,422 563,395 164,928 1,470,745 23.2%
Skill Level B (college education) 1,296,209 606,106 271,927 2,174,242 34.2%
Skill Level C (high school education) 1,040,775 241,477 209,566 1,491,818 23.5%
Skill Level D (on-the-job training) 334,117 149,657 82,748 566,522 8.9%

Sources: ESDC 2017 COPS Projections

Return at position of Figure 13: Job Openings from Expansion and Replacement Demand by Skill Level, 2017-2026 (in thousands)

Date modified: