Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Data for the Figures of Macroeconomic Outlook (2019-2028)

Figure 1 - Growth in Canadian Population of Working Age over the periods 1979-1988, 1989-1998, 1999-2008, 2009-2018 and 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
  1979-1988 1989-1998 1999-2008 2009-2018 2019-2028
Population Aged 15+ 1.5% 1.3% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1%
Population Aged 15-64 1.3% 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical data and projections).

Return at position of Figure 1, Growth in Canadian Population of Working Age over the periods 1979-1988, 1989-1998, 1999-2008, 2009-2018 and 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)

Figure 2 - Distribution of the Working-Age Population by Age Group in 1978, 1988, 1998, 2008, 2018 and 2028 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 2028
15-24 26.2% 19.9% 16.9% 16.3% 14.6% 14.0%
25-54 50.9% 55.3% 57.2% 52.9% 48.3% 46.1%
55-64 11.3% 11.4% 11.0% 14.3% 16.7% 14.2%
65+ 11.6% 13.5% 15.0% 16.4% 20.5% 25.6%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical data and projections).

Return at position of Figure 2, Distribution of the Working-Age Population by Age Group in 1978, 1988, 1998, 2008, 2018 and 2028 (in percentage)

Figure 3 - Labour Force Participation Rates by Age Group over the period 1976-2028 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  15-24 25-54 55-64 65+
1976 63.5% 73.5% 53.1% 9.2%
1977 64.6% 74.1% 52.3% 8.5%
1978 65.6% 75.5% 52.1% 8.3%
1979 67.4% 76.4% 53.0% 8.3%
1980 68.6% 77.3% 52.6% 8.0%
1981 69.3% 78.7% 52.2% 7.8%
1982 67.3% 78.6% 51.7% 7.8%
1983 67.6% 79.4% 51.1% 7.3%
1984 68.0% 80.0% 50.5% 7.3%
1985 68.6% 81.1% 50.5% 7.2%
1986 69.7% 82.0% 49.6% 6.7%
1987 70.3% 82.6% 49.3% 6.7%
1988 70.6% 83.3% 49.4% 6.6%
1989 71.2% 84.0% 49.1% 6.7%
1990 69.9% 84.3% 49.1% 6.7%
1991 68.1% 84.2% 48.5% 6.7%
1992 66.2% 83.4% 48.2% 6.5%
1993 64.4% 83.5% 47.8% 6.2%
1994 63.9% 83.3% 48.1% 6.6%
1995 63.1% 83.3% 47.1% 6.2%
1996 62.2% 83.4% 47.1% 6.1%
1997 61.5% 83.9% 48.2% 6.3%
1998 61.8% 84.3% 48.7% 6.5%
1999 63.5% 84.6% 49.7% 6.2%
2000 64.4% 84.8% 50.9% 6.0%
2001 64.7% 85.1% 51.2% 6.1%
2002 66.5% 85.9% 53.4% 6.7%
2003 67.3% 86.4% 56.6% 7.5%
2004 66.8% 86.5% 57.3% 7.7%
2005 65.9% 86.3% 57.9% 8.1%
2006 66.2% 86.2% 58.6% 8.3%
2007 67.0% 86.6% 60.0% 8.9%
2008 67.4% 86.7% 60.5% 10.1%
2009 65.3% 86.5% 61.6% 10.5%
2010 64.5% 86.5% 62.2% 11.3%
2011 64.5% 86.4% 62.5% 11.8%
2012 63.5% 86.6% 63.4% 12.4%
2013 63.8% 86.7% 64.4% 13.0%
2014 64.2% 86.2% 64.4% 13.4%
2015 64.2% 86.4% 64.8% 13.4%
2016 63.7% 86.5% 65.8% 13.7%
2017 63.9% 87.0% 66.0% 14.2%
2018 63.3% 87.0% 66.5% 14.0%
2019 64.2% 87.6% 67.7% 14.0%
2020 64.3% 87.6% 68.2% 14.1%
2021 64.4% 87.7% 68.4% 14.1%
2022 64.4% 87.8% 68.7% 14.2%
2023 64.2% 88.0% 69.0% 14.3%
2024 64.2% 88.2% 69.2% 14.4%
2025 64.2% 88.3% 69.5% 14.4%
2026 64.2% 88.4% 69.8% 14.5%
2027 64.4% 88.6% 70.0% 14.5%
2028 64.5% 88.7% 70.3% 14.4%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2019 COPS macroeconomic outlook.

Return at position of Figure 3, Labour Force Participation Rates by Age Group over the period 1976-2028 (in percentage)

Figure 4 - Overall Labour Force Participation Rate (15+ and 15-64) over the period 1976-2028 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  Population Aged 15+ Population Aged 15-64
1976 61.5% 67.9%
1977 61.9% 68.5%
1978 62.7% 69.6%
1979 63.7% 70.8%
1980 64.3% 71.6%
1981 65.0% 72.6%
1982 64.4% 72.0%
1983 64.7% 72.5%
1984 65.0% 73.0%
1985 65.7% 73.9%
1986 66.1% 74.6%
1987 66.5% 75.3%
1988 66.8% 75.9%
1989 67.3% 76.6%
1990 67.1% 76.6%
1991 66.6% 76.2%
1992 65.7% 75.3%
1993 65.3% 75.0%
1994 65.2% 74.9%
1995 64.8% 74.6%
1996 64.7% 74.5%
1997 64.9% 74.9%
1998 65.1% 75.2%
1999 65.5% 75.8%
2000 65.8% 76.2%
2001 65.9% 76.3%
2002 66.9% 77.4%
2003 67.6% 78.2%
2004 67.5% 78.1%
2005 67.1% 77.7%
2006 67.0% 77.7%
2007 67.4% 78.3%
2008 67.5% 78.4%
2009 67.1% 78.0%
2010 66.9% 77.8%
2011 66.7% 77.7%
2012 66.5% 77.8%
2013 66.5% 78.0%
2014 66.0% 77.8%
2015 65.8% 78.0%
2016 65.7% 78.1%
2017 65.8% 78.5%
2018 65.4% 78.4%
2019 65.7% 79.2%
2020 65.5% 79.4%
2021 65.3% 79.5%
2022 65.1% 79.7%
2023 64.9% 79.8%
2024 64.7% 80.0%
2025 64.5% 80.2%
2026 64.3% 80.3%
2027 64.1% 80.5%
2028 63.9% 80.7%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2019 COPS macroeconomic outlook.

Return at position of Figure 4, Overall Labour Force Participation Rate (15+ and 15-64) over the period 1976-2028 (in percentage)

Figure 5 - Total Labour Force and its Annual Average Percentage Growth over the period 1978-2028The source is located after the table
  Growth (in percentage) Level (in millions)
1978 3.4% 11.2
1979 3.4% 11.5
1980 3.0% 11.9
1981 3.0% 12.2
1982 0.5% 12.3
1983 1.8% 12.5
1984 1.8% 12.7
1985 2.2% 13.0
1986 2.0% 13.3
1987 1.8% 13.5
1988 1.9% 13.8
1989 2.0% 14.1
1990 1.3% 14.2
1991 0.6% 14.3
1992 0.0% 14.3
1993 0.7% 14.4
1994 0.9% 14.6
1995 0.8% 14.7
1996 1.1% 14.8
1997 1.5% 15.1
1998 1.6% 15.3
1999 1.8% 15.6
2000 1.7% 15.8
2001 1.6% 16.1
2002 2.8% 16.6
2003 2.3% 16.9
2004 1.2% 17.1
2005 0.8% 17.3
2006 1.2% 17.5
2007 2.0% 17.9
2008 1.5% 18.1
2009 0.8% 18.3
2010 1.1% 18.4
2011 0.9% 18.6
2012 1.1% 18.8
2013 1.1% 19.0
2014 0.4% 19.1
2015 0.9% 19.3
2016 0.8% 19.4
2017 1.1% 19.7
2018 0.8% 19.8
2019 1.6% 20.1
2020 0.9% 20.3
2021 0.8% 20.5
2022 0.9% 20.6
2023 0.9% 20.8
2024 0.9% 21.0
2025 0.8% 21.2
2026 0.7% 21.3
2027 0.8% 21.5
2028 0.7% 21.7

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2019 COPS macroeconomic outlook.

Return at position of Figure 5, Total Labour Force and its Annual Average Percentage Growth over the period 1978-2028

Figure 6 - Real and Potential GDP (in billions of chained 2012 dollars) over the period 1982-2028The source is located after the table
  Real GDP (Aggregate Demand) Potential GDP
1982 727.4 782.9
1983 746.9 798.1
1984 788.8 817.2
1985 829.7 839.6
1986 852.3 861.1
1987 885.8 884.0
1988 924.4 910.6
1989 944.6 935.3
1990 946.9 954.4
1991 929.2 972.8
1992 935.6 984.5
1993 957.9 999.1
1994 1002.3 1026.2
1995 1028.0 1053.3
1996 1042.0 1084.8
1997 1087.4 1127.1
1998 1131.2 1171.0
1999 1196.6 1216.4
2000 1265.1 1262.7
2001 1283.9 1306.0
2002 1316.4 1339.8
2003 1343.8 1371.4
2004 1386.7 1405.2
2005 1426.2 1442.0
2006 1466.3 1476.6
2007 1500.3 1504.4
2008 1507.9 1530.8
2009 1451.6 1539.4
2010 1502.3 1562.2
2011 1551.9 1590.6
2012 1579.7 1625.3
2013 1618.7 1661.8
2014 1664.8 1701.4
2015 1674.9 1728.8
2016 1690.5 1748.4
2017 1745.2 1772.3
2018 1779.4 1803.1
2019 1802.7 1826.8
2020 1839.7 1852.4
2021 1875.4 1881.4
2022 1906.4 1910.9
2023 1939.5 1941.2
2024 1972.8 1972.8
2025 2006.1 2005.3
2026 2040.6 2039.0
2027 2075.6 2074.6
2028 2112.1 2111.7

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2019 COPS macroeconomic outlook.

Return at position of Figure 6, Real and Potential GDP (in billions of chained 2012 dollars) over the period 1982-2028

Figure 7 - Annual Average Growth in Employment and Labour Force over the period 2000-2028 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  Employment Labour force
2000 2.5% 1.7%
2001 1.2% 1.6%
2002 2.3% 2.8%
2003 2.4% 2.3%
2004 1.7% 1.2%
2005 1.3% 0.8%
2006 1.7% 1.2%
2007 2.3% 2.0%
2008 1.4% 1.5%
2009 -1.6% 0.8%
2010 1.4% 1.1%
2011 1.5% 0.9%
2012 1.3% 1.1%
2013 1.4% 1.1%
2014 0.6% 0.4%
2015 0.9% 0.9%
2016 0.7% 0.8%
2017 1.9% 1.1%
2018 1.3% 0.8%
2019 1.7% 1.6%
2020 0.7% 0.9%
2021 0.7% 0.8%
2022 0.9% 0.9%
2023 0.9% 0.9%
2024 0.9% 0.9%
2025 0.9% 0.8%
2026 0.8% 0.7%
2027 0.8% 0.8%
2028 0.7% 0.7%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2019 COPS macroeconomic outlook.

Return at position of Figure 7, Annual Average Growth in Employment and Labour Force over the period 2000-2028 (in percentage)

Figure 8 - U.S. Real GDP Annual Average Growth over the period 1982-2028 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  Real GDP Growth
1982 -1.8%
1983 4.6%
1984 7.2%
1985 4.2%
1986 3.5%
1987 3.5%
1988 4.2%
1989 3.7%
1990 1.9%
1991 -0.1%
1992 3.5%
1993 2.8%
1994 4.0%
1995 2.7%
1996 3.8%
1997 4.4%
1998 4.5%
1999 4.8%
2000 4.1%
2001 1.0%
2002 1.7%
2003 2.9%
2004 3.8%
2005 3.5%
2006 2.9%
2007 1.9%
2008 -0.1%
2009 -2.5%
2010 2.6%
2011 1.6%
2012 2.2%
2013 1.8%
2014 2.5%
2015 2.9%
2016 1.6%
2017 2.2%
2018 2.9%
2019 2.4%
2020 2.3%
2021 2.1%
2022 2.2%
2023 2.1%
2024 2.0%
2025 1.9%
2026 1.9%
2027 1.9%
2028 1.9%
  Average Annual Growth (in percentage)
2009-2018 +1.8%
2019-2028 +2.1%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historial data) and ESDC 2019 COPS macroeconomic outlook.

Return at position of Figure 8, U.S. Real GDP Annual Average Growth over the period 1982-2028 (in percentage)

Figure 9 - Canada-U.S. Exchange Rate (in U.S. cents) and World Oil Prices (in U.S. dollars) over the period 1978-2028The source is located after the table
  Exchange Rate (in U.S. cents) Oil Prices (in U.S. dollars)
1978 87.7 14.9
1979 85.4 22.4
1980 85.5 37.4
1981 83.4 36.7
1982 81.1 33.6
1983 81.1 30.4
1984 77.2 29.3
1985 73.2 28.0
1986 72.0 15.0
1987 75.4 19.2
1988 81.3 16.0
1989 84.5 19.7
1990 85.7 24.5
1991 87.3 21.5
1992 82.8 20.6
1993 77.5 18.5
1994 73.2 17.2
1995 72.9 18.4
1996 73.3 22.1
1997 72.2 20.6
1998 67.5 14.4
1999 67.3 19.3
2000 67.3 30.3
2001 64.6 25.9
2002 63.7 26.1
2003 71.6 31.2
2004 77.0 41.4
2005 82.6 56.4
2006 88.2 66.1
2007 93.5 72.3
2008 94.3 99.6
2009 87.9 61.7
2010 97.1 79.5
2011 101.1 95.0
2012 100.1 94.2
2013 97.1 98.0
2014 90.5 93.0
2015 78.3 48.8
2016 75.5 43.3
2017 77.1 51.0
2018 77.2 65.1
2019 76.4 54.7
2020 78.5 57.7
2021 79.6 59.7
2022 80.3 62.8
2023 81.2 65.9
2024 81.7 67.7
2025 82.2 69.1
2026 82.5 70.5
2027 82.5 71.9
2028 82.5 73.3

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2019 COPS macroeconomic outlook.

Return at position of Figure 9, Canada-U.S. Exchange Rate (in U.S. cents) and World Oil Prices (in U.S. dollars) over the period 1978-2028

Figure 10 - Canada’s Government Spending as a Share of Total Real GDP (includes government expenditures and investment) over the period 1992-2028 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  Share of Total Real GDP
1992 30.1%
1993 29.3%
1994 27.8%
1995 26.9%
1996 25.9%
1997 24.5%
1998 24.0%
1999 23.6%
2000 23.2%
2001 23.8%
2002 23.7%
2003 24.0%
2004 23.8%
2005 23.6%
2006 23.7%
2007 24.0%
2008 24.7%
2009 26.4%
2010 26.5%
2011 25.7%
2012 25.2%
2013 24.3%
2014 23.6%
2015 23.7%
2016 23.8%
2017 23.7%
2018 23.9%
2019 23.8%
2020 23.6%
2021 23.4%
2022 23.3%
2023 23.1%
2024 23.0%
2025 22.9%
2026 22.9%
2027 22.8%
2028 22.7%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2019 COPS macroeconomic outlook.

Return at position of Figure 10, Canada’s Government Spending as a Share of Total Real GDP (includes government expenditures and investment) over the period 1992-2026 (in percentage)

Figure 11 - Growth in Real GDP, Final Domestic Demand and Exports over the periods 2009-2018 and 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
  GDP (Aggregate Demand) Final Domestic Demand Exports (Foreign Demand)
2009-2018 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
2019-2028 1.7% 1.6% 2.3%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2019 COPS macroeconomic outlook.

Return at position of Figure 11, Growth in Real GDP, Final Domestic Demand and Exports over the periods 2009-2018 and 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)

Figure 12 - Growth in Major Components of Real Final Domestic Demand over the periods 2009-2018 and 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
  Consumer Spending Residential Investment Investment in Non-Residential Structures Investment in Machinery & Equipment Investment in Intellectual Property Government Expenditures & Investment
2009-2018 2.3% 1.7% 0.8% -0.4% -1.7% 1.4%
2019-2028 1.8% 0.7% 0.4% 2.9% 3.3% 1.2%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2019 COPS macroeconomic outlook.

Return at position of Figure 12, Growth in Major Components of Real Final Domestic Demand over the periods 2009-2018 and 2019-2028 (average annual growth, in percentage)

Figure 13 - Real Net Exports over the period 1982-2029 (as a percentage of total real GDP)The source is located after the table
  Real net exports
1982 4.9%
1983 4.5%
1984 5.2%
1985 4.6%
1986 4.4%
1987 4.0%
1988 3.5%
1989 2.6%
1990 3.2%
1991 3.1%
1992 3.8%
1993 4.7%
1994 6.0%
1995 7.1%
1996 7.5%
1997 6.4%
1998 7.9%
1999 9.0%
2000 9.4%
2001 9.5%
2002 9.2%
2003 7.4%
2004 6.8%
2005 5.3%
2006 4.0%
2007 2.6%
2008 0.8%
2009 0.6%
2010 -1.4%
2011 -1.6%
2012 -1.9%
2013 -1.8%
2014 -0.7%
2015 0.2%
2016 0.6%
2017 -0.4%
2018 -0.2%
2019 0.3%
2020 0.4%
2021 0.5%
2022 0.6%
2023 0.7%
2024 0.8%
2025 0.9%
2026 1.0%
2027 1.1%
2028 1.2%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2019 COPS macroeconomic outlook.

Return at position of Figure 13, Real Net Exports over the period 1982-2028 (as a percentage of total real GDP)

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