Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Data for the Figures of Macroeconomic Scenario (2017-2026)

Figure 1 - Growth in Canadian Population of Working Age over the periods 1977-1986, 1987-1996, 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
  1977-1986 1987-1996 1997-2006 2007-2016 2017-2026
Population Aged 15+ 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0%
Population Aged 15-64 1.5% 1.1% 1.2% 0.8% 0.3%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical data and projections).

Return at position of Figure 1, Growth in Canadian Population of Working Age over the periods 1977-1986, 1987-1996, 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)

Figure 2 - Distribution of the Working-Age Population by Age Group in 1976, 1986, 1996, 2006, 2016 and 2026 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  1976 1986 1996 2006 2016 2026
15-24 26.5% 21.5% 17.0% 16.6% 14.9% 13.5%
25-54 50.8% 53.7% 57.1% 53.7% 49.2% 46.2%
55-64 11.1% 11.5% 10.7% 13.7% 16.3% 15.1%
65+ 11.4% 13.3% 15.1% 16.0% 19.7% 25.2%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical data and projections).

Return at position of Figure 2, Distribution of the Working-Age Population by Age Group in 1976, 1986, 1996, 2006, 2016 and 2026 (in percentage)

Figure 3 - Labour Force Participation Rates by Age Group over the period 1976-2026 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  15-24 25-54 55-64 65+
1976 63.5% 73.5% 53.1% 9.2%
1977 64.6% 74.1% 52.3% 8.5%
1978 65.6% 75.5% 52.1% 8.3%
1979 67.4% 76.4% 53.0% 8.3%
1980 68.6% 77.3% 52.6% 8.0%
1981 69.3% 78.7% 52.2% 7.8%
1982 67.3% 78.6% 51.7% 7.8%
1983 67.6% 79.4% 51.1% 7.3%
1984 68.0% 80.0% 50.5% 7.3%
1985 68.6% 81.1% 50.5% 7.2%
1986 69.7% 82.0% 49.6% 6.7%
1987 70.3% 82.6% 49.3% 6.7%
1988 70.6% 83.3% 49.4% 6.6%
1989 71.2% 84.0% 49.1% 6.7%
1990 69.9% 84.3% 49.2% 6.7%
1991 68.1% 84.1% 48.5% 6.7%
1992 66.2% 83.4% 48.2% 6.5%
1993 64.4% 83.5% 47.8% 6.2%
1994 63.9% 83.3% 48.1% 6.6%
1995 63.1% 83.3% 47.1% 6.2%
1996 62.2% 83.4% 47.1% 6.1%
1997 61.4% 83.9% 48.1% 6.3%
1998 61.8% 84.3% 48.7% 6.5%
1999 63.5% 84.6% 49.7% 6.2%
2000 64.4% 84.8% 50.9% 6.0%
2001 64.7% 85.1% 51.2% 6.1%
2002 66.5% 85.9% 53.4% 6.7%
2003 67.3% 86.4% 56.6% 7.5%
2004 66.8% 86.6% 57.3% 7.7%
2005 65.9% 86.3% 57.9% 8.1%
2006 66.2% 86.2% 58.6% 8.3%
2007 67.0% 86.6% 60.1% 8.9%
2008 67.3% 86.7% 60.4% 10.0%
2009 65.4% 86.5% 61.6% 10.5%
2010 64.5% 86.5% 62.2% 11.3%
2011 64.5% 86.4% 62.6% 11.8%
2012 63.6% 86.7% 63.4% 12.5%
2013 63.8% 86.7% 64.4% 13.0%
2014 64.2% 86.2% 64.4% 13.4%
2015 64.2% 86.4% 64.8% 13.5%
2016 63.7% 86.5% 65.8% 13.7%
2017 64.5% 86.9% 66.3% 13.5%
2018 64.7% 87.0% 66.9% 13.6%
2019 64.7% 87.1% 67.5% 13.7%
2020 64.6% 87.3% 68% 13.9%
2021 64.5% 87.5% 68.3% 14.0%
2022 64.4% 87.8% 68.6% 14.2%
2023 64.3% 88.0% 68.8% 14.3%
2024 64.2% 88.1% 69.1% 14.4%
2025 64.2% 88.3% 69.3% 14.5%
2026 64.3% 88.5% 69.6% 14.6%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 3, Labour Force Participation Rates by Age Group over the period 1976-2026(in percentage)

Figure 4 - Overall Labour Force Participation Rate (15+ and 15-64) over the period 1976-2026 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  Population Aged 15+ Population Aged 15-64
1976 61.5% 67.9%
1977 61.9% 68.5%
1978 62.8% 69.6%
1979 63.7% 70.8%
1980 64.2% 71.6%
1981 65.0% 72.6%
1982 64.5% 72.0%
1983 64.7% 72.5%
1984 65.1% 73.0%
1985 65.6% 73.9%
1986 66.1% 74.6%
1987 66.5% 75.3%
1988 66.8% 75.9%
1989 67.2% 76.6%
1990 67.1% 76.6%
1991 66.6% 76.2%
1992 65.7% 75.3%
1993 65.4% 75.1%
1994 65.2% 74.9%
1995 64.8% 74.7%
1996 64.7% 74.6%
1997 64.8% 74.8%
1998 65.1% 75.2%
1999 65.5% 75.8%
2000 65.8% 76.2%
2001 65.9% 76.4%
2002 66.8% 77.4%
2003 67.5% 78.1%
2004 67.5% 78.1%
2005 67.2% 77.7%
2006 67.0% 77.7%
2007 67.5% 78.3%
2008 67.5% 78.4%
2009 67.1% 78.0%
2010 66.9% 77.8%
2011 66.7% 77.8%
2012 66.5% 77.8%
2013 66.5% 78.0%
2014 66.0% 77.7%
2015 65.8% 78.0%
2016 65.7% 78.1%
2017 65.7% 78.5%
2018 65.6% 78.8%
2019 65.5% 79.0%
2020 65.3% 79.2%
2021 65.2% 79.4%
2022 65.0% 79.6%
2023 64.8% 79.8%
2024 64.6% 80.0%
2025 64.4% 80.2%
2026 64.2% 80.4%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 4, Overall Labour Force Participation Rate (15+ and 15-64) over the period 1976-2026 (in percentage)

Figure 5 - Total Labour Force and its Annual Average Percentage Growth over the period 1978-2026The source is located after the table
  Growth (in percentage) Level (in millions)
1978 3.4% 11.2
1979 3.4% 11.5
1980 2.9% 11.9
1981 3.1% 12.2
1982 0.7% 12.3
1983 1.7% 12.5
1984 1.8% 12.8
1985 2.1% 13.0
1986 2% 13.3
1987 1.8% 13.5
1988 1.9% 13.8
1989 1.9% 14.0
1990 1.4% 14.2
1991 0.6% 14.3
1992 0.0% 14.3
1993 0.7% 14.4
1994 0.9% 14.6
1995 0.8% 14.7
1996 1.1% 14.8
1997 1.5% 15.1
1998 1.6% 15.3
1999 1.8% 15.6
2000 1.7% 15.8
2001 1.6% 16.1
2002 2.8% 16.6
2003 2.3% 16.9
2004 1.2% 17.1
2005 0.8% 17.3
2006 1.2% 17.5
2007 2% 17.9
2008 1.5% 18.1
2009 0.8% 18.3
2010 1.1% 18.4
2011 0.9% 18.6
2012 1.1% 18.8
2013 1.1% 19
2014 0.4% 19.1
2015 0.8% 19.3
2016 0.8% 19.4
2017 1.0% 19.6
2018 0.9% 19.8
2019 0.7% 20
2020 0.8% 20.1
2021 0.7% 20.3
2022 0.8% 20.4
2023 0.7% 20.6
2024 0.7% 20.7
2025 0.6% 20.8
2026 0.7% 21.0

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 5, Total Labour Force and its Annual Average Percentage Growth over the period 1978-2026

Figure 6 - Real and Potential GDP (in billions of 2007 dollars) over the period 1982-2026The source is located after the table
  Real GDP (Aggregate Demand) Potential GDP
1982 662.3 714.0
1983 680.1 727.8
1984 718.3 743.4
1985 755.5 763.3
1986 776.1 781.8
1987 806.6 802.5
1988 841.7 826.0
1989 860.1 849.7
1990 862.2 868.0
1991 846.0 885.2
1992 851.8 897.0
1993 872.0 911.4
1994 912.5 935.0
1995 935.9 959.9
1996 948.6 988.4
1997 989.9 1,027.7
1998 1,029.9 1,065.9
1999 1,089.5 1,105.7
2000 1,151.8 1,147.5
2001 1,168.9 1,185.5
2002 1,198.5 1,216.2
2003 1,223.5 1,243.3
2004 1,262.5 1,274.5
2005 1,298.5 1,309.5
2006 1,334.9 1,342.1
2007 1,366.8 1,368.5
2008 1,373.6 1,394.0
2009 1,321.9 1,404.9
2010 1,368.1 1,425.8
2011 1,413.2 1,450.5
2012 1,438.4 1,480.8
2013 1,473.6 1,511.9
2014 1,511.4 1,542.4
2015 1,522.0 1,562.3
2016 1,538.7 1,569.7
2017 1,573.7 1,584.5
2018 1,603.4 1,607.2
2019 1,631.0 1,634.1
2020 1,660.3 1,662.5
2021 1,691.1 1,691.9
2022 1,722.6 1,722.4
2023 1,755.0 1,754.0
2024 1,788.3 1,786.6
2025 1,821.5 1,820.1
2026 1,855.0 1,854.5

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 6, Real and Potential GDP (in billions of dollars) over the period 1982-2026

Figure 7 - Annual Average Growth in Employment and Labour Force over the period 2000-2026 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  Employment Labour force
2000 2.5% 1.7%
2001 1.2% 1.6%
2002 2.3% 2.8%
2003 2.4% 2.3%
2004 1.7% 1.2%
2005 1.3% 0.8%
2006 1.7% 1.2%
2007 2.3% 2%
2008 1.4% 1.5%
2009 -1.6% 0.8%
2010 1.4% 1.1%
2011 1.5% 0.9%
2012 1.3% 1.1%
2013 1.4% 1.1%
2014 0.6% 0.4%
2015 0.9% 0.8%
2016 0.7% 0.8%
2017 1.2% 1%
2018 1.0% 0.9%
2019 0.9% 0.7%
2020 0.9% 0.8%
2021 0.8% 0.7%
2022 0.9% 0.8%
2023 0.8% 0.7%
2024 0.7% 0.7%
2025 0.7% 0.6%
2026 0.7% 0.7%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 7, Annual Average Growth in Employment and Labour Force over the period 2000-2026 (in percentage)

Figure 8 - U.S. Real GDP Annual Average Growth over the period 1982-2026 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  Real GDP Growth
1982 -1.9%
1983 4.6%
1984 7.3%
1985 4.2%
1986 3.5%
1987 3.5%
1988 4.2%
1989 3.7%
1990 1.9%
1991 -0.1%
1992 3.6%
1993 2.7%
1994 4.0%
1995 2.7%
1996 3.8%
1997 4.5%
1998 4.4%
1999 4.7%
2000 4.1%
2001 1.0%
2002 1.8%
2003 2.8%
2004 3.8%
2005 3.3%
2006 2.7%
2007 1.8%
2008 -0.3%
2009 -2.8%
2010 2.5%
2011 1.6%
2012 2.2%
2013 1.7%
2014 2.4%
2015 2.6%
2016 1.6%
2017 2.2%
2018 2.4%
2019 2.3%
2020 2.2%
2021 2.1%
2022 2.0%
2023 1.9%
2024 2.0%
2025 2.0%
2026 1.9%
  Average Annual Growth (in percentage)
2007-2016 +1.3%
2017-2026 +2.1%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 8, U.S. Real GDP Annual Average Growth over the period 1982-2026 (in percentage)

Figure 9 - Canada-U.S. Exchange Rate (in U.S. cents) and World Oil Prices (in U.S. dollars) over the period 1978-2026The source is located after the table
  Exchange Rate (in U.S. cents) Oil Prices (in U.S. dollars)
1978 87.7 14.9
1979 85.4 22.4
1980 85.5 37.4
1981 83.4 36.7
1982 81.1 33.6
1983 81.1 30.4
1984 77.2 29.3
1985 73.2 28.0
1986 72.0 15.0
1987 75.4 19.2
1988 81.3 16.0
1989 84.5 19.6
1990 85.7 24.5
1991 87.3 21.5
1992 82.8 20.6
1993 77.5 18.5
1994 73.2 17.2
1995 72.9 18.4
1996 73.3 22.1
1997 72.2 20.6
1998 67.5 14.4
1999 67.3 19.3
2000 67.3 30.3
2001 64.6 25.9
2002 63.7 26.1
2003 71.6 31.1
2004 77.0 41.4
2005 82.6 56.5
2006 88.2 66
2007 93.5 72.3
2008 94.3 99.6
2009 87.9 61.7
2010 97.1 79.4
2011 101.1 94.9
2012 100.1 94.1
2013 97.1 97.9
2014 90.5 93.3
2015 78.3 48.6
2016 75.5 43.4
2017 74.5 52.4
2018 75.4 57.9
2019 76.7 62.4
2020 77.4 65.3
2021 78.2 69.2
2022 78.9 71.5
2023 80.5 75.3
2024 80.9 78.3
2025 81.0 80.9
2026 81.3 83.9

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 9, Canada-U.S. Exchange Rate (in U.S. cents) and World Oil Prices (in U.S. dollars) over the period 1978-2026

Figure 10 - Canada's Government Spending as a Share of Total Real GDP (includes government expenditures and investment) over the period 1992-2026 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  Share of Total Real GDP
1992 28.9
1993 28.1
1994 26.7
1995 25.8
1996 24.9
1997 23.6
1998 23.1
1999 22.7
2000 22.3
2001 22.9
2002 22.8
2003 23.1
2004 22.9
2005 22.7
2006 22.8
2007 23.1
2008 23.7
2009 25.4
2010 25.6
2011 24.7
2012 24.3
2013 23.3
2014 22.7
2015 23
2016 23.1
2017 23.2
2018 23.0
2019 22.7
2020 22.5
2021 22.3
2022 22.1
2023 21.9
2024 21.7
2025 21.6
2026 21.5

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 10, Canada’s Government Spending as a Share of Total Real GDP (includes government expenditures and investment) over the period 1992-2026 (in percentage)

Figure 11 - Growth in Real GDP, Final Domestic Demand and Exports over the periods 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
  GDP (Aggregate Demand) Final Domestic Demand Exports (Foreign Demand)
2007-2016 1.5% 1.9% 0.9%
2017-2026 1.9% 1.6% 2.6%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 11, Growth in Real GDP, Final Domestic Demand and Exports over the periods 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)

Figure 12 - Growth in Major Components of Real Final Domestic Demand over the periods 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
  Consumer Spending Residential Investment Investment in Non-Residential Structures Investment in Machinery & Equipment Government Spending & Investment
2007-2016 2.5% 1.5% 1.4% -0.7% 1.6%
2017-2026 1.8% 0.9% 1.8% 2.9% 1.1%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 12, Growth in Major Components of Real Final Domestic Demand over the periods 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (average annual growth, in percentage)

Figure 13 - Real Net Exports over the period 1982-2026 (in percentage of total real GDP)The source is located after the table
  Real net exports
1982 4.8%
1983 4.4%
1984 5.1%
1985 4.5%
1986 4.3%
1987 3.9%
1988 3.3%
1989 2.3%
1990 2.9%
1991 2.9%
1992 3.5%
1993 4.5%
1994 5.8%
1995 6.8%
1996 7.2%
1997 6.1%
1998 7.5%
1999 8.7%
2000 9.1%
2001 9.3%
2002 8.9%
2003 7.0%
2004 6.4%
2005 4.9%
2006 3.5%
2007 2.1%
2008 0.3%
2009 0.1%
2010 -1.9%
2011 -2.2%
2012 -2.5%
2013 -2.2%
2014 -1.1%
2015 -0.1%
2016 0.5%
2017 0.9%
2018 1.1%
2019 1.2%
2020 1.4%
2021 1.6%
2022 1.8%
2023 2.0%
2024 2.1%
2025 2.3%
2026 2.4%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 13, Real Net Exports over the period 1982-2026 (in percentage of total real GDP)

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