Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Data for Figures in Job Seekers (2017-2026)

Figure 1 - School Leavers by Education Level, 1990-2026 The source is located after the table
  Some High School Secondary and Some Postsecondary College University Total
1990 7,400 72,200 132,700 76,900
1991 7,500 73,400 134,700 78,100
1992 9,100 70,500 136,400 82,400
1993 10,800 68,500 138,200 86,500
1994 12,600 67,900 140,500 90,300
1995 14,500 69,300 144,200 94,400
1996 16,400 71,700 147,900 98,100
1997 18,200 74,900 151,800 101,900
1998 20,000 79,500 156,800 106,500
1999 21,300 84,100 161,000 110,800
2000 22,000 87,600 163,700 114,300
2001 21,900 89,600 164,400 116,900
2002 21,500 91,900 165,700 120,700
2003 20,400 92,700 165,400 124,000
2004 18,800 91,100 163,000 126,000
2005 17,100 88,600 160,600 128,400
2006 15,600 86,500 159,700 131,900
2007 14,200 84,400 159,600 135,900
2008 12,800 82,200 159,800 140,500
2009 11,700 79,700 160,600 145,700
2010 10,900 77,800 162,800 152,700
2011 10,600 76,700 166,900 161,900
2012 10,600 75,200 171,400 171,900
2013 10,900 73,200 175,500 181,700
2014 11,300 70,300 178,000 189,800
2015 11,700 67,200 179,500 196,300
2016 12,200 64,800 180,900 201,900
2017 12,600 63,400 182,600 207,100
2018 13,000 62,800 184,100 211,400
2019 13,200 62,700 185,400 214,900
2020 13,200 63,100 186,600 217,600
2021 13,100 63,900 187,700 220,000
2022 12,900 65,000 189,000 222,300
2023 12,500 66,300 190,300 224,300
2024 12,200 67,800 191,700 226,400
2025 11,700 69,500 193,200 228,600
2026 11,300 71,200 194,700 230,800

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 1 - School Leavers by Education Level, 1990-2026

Figure 2 - Population Aged 15 to 19 and 20 to 29 in thousands and their Shares in the Total Working Age Population (15-64), 1990-2026 The source is located after the table
  Population 20-29 (in thousands) Share of Working-Age Population, 20-29 (percentage) Population 15-19 (in thousands) Share of Working-Age Population, 15-19 (percentage)
1990 4,519.1 25% 1,884.1 10%
1991 4,441.2 24% 1,879.6 10%
1992 4,359.3 23% 1,879.6 10%
1993 4,261.6 22% 1,891.2 10%
1994 4,161.4 22% 1,912.8 10%
1995 4,087.1 21% 1,937.1 10%
1996 4,047.6 21% 1,963.7 10%
1997 4,033.4 20% 1,981.9 10%
1998 4,024.4 20% 2,004.6 10%
1999 4,023.2 20% 2,027.3 10%
2000 4,044.4 20% 2,047.0 10%
2001 4,075.8 20% 2,063.9 10%
2002 4,119.1 20% 2,074.8 10%
2003 4,163.7 20% 2,078.6 10%
2004 4,219.5 20% 2,092.3 10%
2005 4,269.8 20% 2,121.5 10%
2006 4,319.7 20% 2,152.5 10%
2007 4,368.5 20% 2,173.3 10%
2008 4,422.3 20% 2,192.8 10%
2009 4,485.6 20% 2,198.4 10%
2010 4,546.4 20% 2,191.5 10%
2011 4,594.8 20% 2,178.9 9%
2012 4,665.1 20% 2,154.1 9%
2013 4,721.4 20% 2,119.3 9%
2014 4,765.7 20% 2,076.0 9%
2015 4,796.4 20% 2,034.4 9%
2016 4,825.7 20% 2,000.4 8%
2017 4,844.9 20% 1,976.6 8%
2018 4,854.1 20% 1,964.6 8%
2019 4,839.6 20% 1,966.9 8%
2020 4,806.5 20% 1,972.2 8%
2021 4,763.6 20% 1,993.7 8%
2022 4,719.8 19% 2,029.6 8%
2023 4,680.0 19% 2,073.9 8%
2024 4,649.0 19% 2,114.0 9%
2025 4,621.5 19% 2,152.9 9%
2026 4,610.5 19% 2,181.6 9%
  Average Youth Population Average Population 20-29 Average Population 15-19
2007-2016 6.75 million 4.62 million 2.13 million
2017-2026 6.78 million 4.74 million 2.04 million

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 2 - Population Aged 15 to 19 and 20 to 29 in thousands and their Shares in the Total Working Age Population (15-64), 1990-2026

 
Figure 3 - Enrolment Rates by Level of Education (as Percentage of Source Population) 1990-2026 The source is located after the table
  Master's and PhD Bachelor and First Professional College
1990 1.0% 12.3% 12.0%
1991 1.0% 12.7% 12.4%
1992 1.1% 13.4% 12.7%
1993 1.2% 14.0% 12.9%
1994 1.3% 14.6% 13.1%
1995 1.3% 15.3% 13.5%
1996 1.4% 15.9% 13.8%
1997 1.5% 16.5% 14.2%
1998 1.6% 17.1% 14.5%
1999 1.7% 17.6% 14.7%
2000 1.7% 17.8% 15.2%
2001 1.8% 18.4% 15.2%
2002 2.0% 19.3% 15.2%
2003 2.2% 20.8% 15.4%
2004 2.3% 21.0% 15.3%
2005 2.4% 21.3% 14.7%
2006 2.5% 21.4% 14.6%
2007 2.6% 21.1% 14.7%
2008 2.7% 21.4% 14.5%
2009 2.8% 22.4% 15.2%
2010 2.8% 23.0% 15.4%
2011 2.9% 23.5% 15.3%
2012 2.9% 23.5% 15.2%
2013 3.1% 24.4% 15.4%
2014 3.3% 25.2% 15.6%
2015 3.4% 26.0% 15.8%
2016 3.5% 26.7% 16.1%
2017 3.7% 27.4% 16.4%
2018 3.8% 28.0% 16.7%
2019 3.9% 28.5% 17.1%
2020 4.0% 29.0% 17.5%
2021 4.0% 29.5% 17.8%
2022 4.1% 29.6% 18.0%
2023 4.2% 29.7% 18.1%
2024 4.3% 29.6% 18.2%
2025 4.4% 29.4% 18.1%
2026 4.5% 29.0% 18.0%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 3 - Enrolment Rates by Level of Education (as Percentage of Source Population) 1990-2026

1990175,2157,6332,8232.7204.8437.417.225.142.3

Figure 4 - Number of Enrolments by Level of Education, 1990-2026 (in thousands) The source is located after the table
  College - Female College - Male College - Total Bachelor - Female Bachelor - Male Bachelor - Total Master's and PhD - Female Master's and PhD - Male Master's and PhD - Total
1991 178.0 160.1 338.0 236.3 208.0 444.3 17.5 25.5 43.0
1992 180.2 162.1 342.3 247.5 217.8 465.3 18.9 27.5 46.3
1993 182.5 164.2 346.7 258.2 227.3 485.5 20.1 29.2 49.3
1994 184.2 166.8 351.0 261.5 225.3 486.8 21.4 29.5 51.0
1995 190.2 171.5 361.7 265.9 223.8 489.6 21.9 28.7 50.7
1996 197.7 175.5 373.2 267.3 220.2 487.5 22.4 27.8 50.1
1997 202.3 178.9 381.2 270.9 220.0 490.9 23.0 27.5 50.5
1998 204.0 178.8 382.9 274.2 218.3 492.5 23.7 26.7 50.4
1999 207.8 180.8 388.6 279.4 218.0 497.4 25.5 27.3 52.7
2000 212.9 183.1 396.0 289.4 219.9 509.3 27.1 28.1 55.2
2001 219.0 184.9 403.9 296.6 219.1 515.7 28.0 28.5 56.6
2002 222.5 185.5 408.0 312.1 227.7 539.8 29.7 29.9 59.6
2003 227.1 189.4 416.5 334.4 243.4 577.8 32.7 33.2 66.0
2004 232.5 193.6 426.1 369.2 264.9 634.0 35.8 36.9 72.7
2005 234.6 193.4 428.1 376.6 272.2 648.8 38.6 38.5 77.2
2006 229.5 188.3 417.8 383.1 278.1 661.2 40.3 39.4 79.7
2007 228.1 187.4 415.5 388.3 281.5 669.8 42.4 40.8 83.1
2008 233.0 190.2 423.2 385.9 283.9 669.8 45.6 42.5 88.0
2009 229.0 187.4 416.5 392.3 289.9 682.2 48.0 43.7 91.6
2010 234.0 199.9 433.9 403.8 304.1 707.9 51.0 47.7 98.7
2011 239.2 207.1 446.3 417.8 315.3 733.0 53.4 50.4 103.8
2012 242.6 211.1 453.7 429.9 326.5 756.4 55.6 51.7 107.3
2013 246.7 214.3 461.0 439.9 335.6 775.5 57.8 53.2 111.0
2014 252.3 217.5 469.8 446.7 341.6 788.3 59.6 54.7 114.3
2015 254.6 219.7 474.3 456.0 349.5 805.6 61.4 55.8 117.2
2016 236.4 202.9 439.3 461.2 353.6 814.8 62.8 56.1 118.9
2017 NA NA 443.4 NA NA 816.0 NA NA 116.0
2018 NA NA 447.1 NA NA 834.5 NA NA 129.5
2019 NA NA 450.3 NA NA 839.5 NA NA 134.0
2020 NA NA 453.1 NA NA 842.2 NA NA 138.0
2021 NA NA 455.9 NA NA 843.8 NA NA 141.6
2022 NA NA 458.9 NA NA 845.2 NA NA 145.0
2023 NA NA 462.1 NA NA 846.4 NA NA 148.2
2024 NA NA 465.4 NA NA 847.9 NA NA 151.4
2025 NA NA 469.1 NA NA 849.9 NA NA 154.5
2026 NA NA 472.9 NA NA 851.8 NA NA 157.7

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 4, Number of Enrolments by Level of Education, 1990-2026 (in thousands)

Figure 5 - School Leavers with a College Education, 1990-2026 (in thousands) The source is located after the table
  School Leavers with College Degree Population 18-24
1990 132.6 2,815.4
1991 134.7 2,776.6
1992 136.4 2,755.1
1993 138.2 2,745.6
1994 140.5 2,741.5
1995 144.2 2,736.3
1996 147.9 2,735.0
1997 151.8 2,733.8
1998 156.8 2,766.6
1999 161.0 2,800.3
2000 163.7 2,832.3
2001 164.4 2,871.1
2002 165.7 2,913.8
2003 165.4 2,953.1
2004 163.0 2,991.1
2005 160.6 3,018.4
2006 159.7 3,032.3
2007 159.6 3,060.7
2008 159.8 3,096.1
2009 160.6 3,105.8
2010 162.8 3,135.8
2011 166.9 3,172.6
2012 171.4 3,230.6
2013 175.5 3,255.9
2014 178.0 3,267.9
2015 179.5 3,243.7
2016 180.9 3,215.3
2017 182.6 3,177.3
2018 184.1 3,140.4
2019 185.4 3,095.7
2020 186.6 3,052.6
2021 187.7 3,015.7
2022 189.0 3,003.2
2023 190.3 3,001.3
2024 191.7 3,016.6
2025 193.2 3,045.3
2026 194.7 3,092.0

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 5, School Leavers with a College Education, 1990-2026 (in thousands)

Figure 6 - School Leavers with a University Education, 1990-2026 (in thousands)The source is located after the table
  School Leavers with University Education Population 18-34
1990 76.9 7750.4
1991 78.1 7703.6
1992 82.4 7645.8
1993 86.5 7569.8
1994 90.3 7493.5
1995 94.4 7416.5
1996 98.1 7338.4
1997 101.9 7243.3
1998 106.5 7162.9
1999 110.8 7085.3
2000 114.3 7053.9
2001 116.9 7072.7
2002 120.7 7118.9
2003 124.0 7153.7
2004 126.0 7197.8
2005 128.4 7236.6
2006 131.9 7273.5
2007 135.9 7351.2
2008 140.5 7458.4
2009 145.7 7553.7
2010 152.7 7658.9
2011 161.9 7754.3
2012 171.9 7878.4
2013 181.7 7970.1
2014 189.8 8052.4
2015 196.3 8087.9
2016 201.9 8124.4
2017 207.1 8139.8
2018 211.4 8151.5
2019 214.9 8148.8
2020 217.6 8142.9
2021 220.0 8135.9
2022 222.3 8143.5
2023 224.3 8151.6
2024 226.4 8155.5
2025 228.6 8156.2
2026 230.8 8166.5

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 6 - School Leavers with a University Education, 1990-2026 (in thousands)

Figure 7 - School Leavers with High School Diploma and High School Dropouts 1990-2026 (in thousands)The source is located after the table
  Less than High School High School Population 15-19
1990 7.4 72.2 1884.1
1991 7.5 73.4 1879.6
1992 9.1 70.5 1879.6
1993 10.8 68.5 1891.2
1994 12.6 67.9 1912.8
1995 14.5 69.3 1937.1
1996 16.4 71.7 1963.7
1997 18.2 74.9 1981.9
1998 20.0 79.5 2004.6
1999 21.3 84.1 2027.3
2000 22.0 87.6 2047.0
2001 21.9 89.6 2063.9
2002 21.5 91.9 2074.8
2003 20.4 92.7 2078.6
2004 18.8 91.1 2092.3
2005 17.1 88.6 2121.5
2006 15.6 86.5 2152.5
2007 14.2 84.4 2173.3
2008 12.8 82.2 2192.8
2009 11.7 79.7 2198.4
2010 10.9 77.8 2191.5
2011 10.6 76.7 2178.9
2012 10.6 75.2 2154.1
2013 10.9 73.2 2119.3
2014 11.3 70.3 2076.0
2015 11.7 67.2 2034.4
2016 12.2 64.8 2000.4
2017 12.6 63.4 1976.6
2018 13.0 62.8 1964.6
2019 13.2 62.7 1966.9
2020 13.2 63.1 1972.2
2021 13.1 63.9 1993.7
2022 12.9 65.0 2029.6
2023 12.5 66.3 2073.9
2024 12.2 67.8 2114.0
2025 11.7 69.5 2152.9
2026 11.3 71.2 2181.6

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 7, School Leavers with High School Diploma and High School Dropouts 1990-2026 (in thousands)

Figure 8 - Historical and Projected Distribution of School Leavers by Education Level (in percentage) The source is located after the table
  Less than High School High school or some PSE College University
1997-2006 5.1% 22.5% 41.8% 30.6%
2007-2016 2.8% 17.7% 40.0% 39.6%
2017-2026 2.6% 13.5% 38.7% 45.2%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 8, Historical and Projected Distribution of School Leavers by Education Level (in percentage)

Figure 9 - Share of the Labour Force (15+) with a Post-secondary Education, 1990-2026 The source is located after the table
  share of the labour force (15+) with a PSE (%)
1990 39.7%
1991 40.7%
1992 42.0%
1993 43.8%
1994 45.9%
1995 47.1%
1996 47.8%
1997 49.6%
1998 50.6%
1999 51.0%
2000 51.4%
2001 52.6%
2002 53.1%
2003 54.0%
2004 54.4%
2005 55.9%
2006 56.6%
2007 57.4%
2008 57.6%
2009 58.5%
2010 59.4%
2011 60.3%
2012 61.4%
2013 61.9%
2014 62.6%
2015 63.9%
2016 65.0%
2017 65.6%
2018 66.3%
2019 67.1%
2020 67.8%
2021 68.5%
2022 69.2%
2023 69.8%
2024 70.5%
2025 71.1%
2026 71.7%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 9, Share of the Labour Force (15+) with a Post-secondary Education, 1990-2026

Figure 10 - Historical and Projected Distribution of School Leavers by Skill Level (in percentage) The source is located after the table
Occupations where on-the job training is usually provided Occupations usually require secondary school and/or occupation-specific training Occupations usually require college education or apprenticeship training Occupations usually require university education Management occupations
1997-2006 13.2% 32.0% 32.4% 20.9% 1.5%
2007-2016 11.9% 27.5% 34.8% 24.6% 1.2%
2017-2026 11.1% 25.0% 34.7% 28.2% 0.9%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 10, Historical and Projected Distribution of School Leavers by Skill Level (in percentage)

Figure 11 - Projected Distribution of School Leavers by Education Level (in percentage) The source is located after the table
  Less than High School High School or Some PSE College University
2017-2026 2.6% 13.5 38.7% 45.2%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 11, Projected Distribution of School Leavers by Education Level (in percentage)

Figure 12 - Annual Immigration Levels (in thousands) and Rates, 1996-2026 The source is located after the table
  Immigration Immigration Rate Immigration Rate Average, 2007-2016
1996 217.5 0.74% 0.75%
1997 224.9 0.76% 0.75%
1998 194.5 0.65% 0.75%
1999 173.2 0.57% 0.75%
2000 205.7 0.68% 0.75%
2001 252.5 0.82% 0.75%
2002 256.4 0.83% 0.75%
2003 199.2 0.64% 0.75%
2004 239.1 0.76% 0.75%
2005 244.6 0.77% 0.75%
2006 254.4 0.79% 0.75%
2007 238.1 0.73% 0.75%
2008 249.6 0.76% 0.75%
2009 245.3 0.74% 0.75%
2010 270.6 0.80% 0.75%
2011 259.1 0.76% 0.75%
2012 260.1 0.76% 0.75%
2013 263.2 0.76% 0.75%
2014 267.9 0.76% 0.75%
2015 240.8 0.68% 0.75%
2016 320.9 0.90% 0.75%
2017 300.0 0.83% 0.75%
2018 308.2 0.84% 0.75%
2019 311.5 0.84% 0.75%
2020 314.8 0.84% 0.75%
2021 318.1 0.84% 0.75%
2022 321.4 0.84% 0.75%
2023 324.7 0.84% 0.75%
2024 327.9 0.84% 0.75%
2025 331.2 0.84% 0.75%
2026 334.4 0.84% 0.75%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 12, Annual Immigration Levels (in thousands) and Rates, 1996-2026

Figure 13 - Population Growth by Component, Annual Averages Over: 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (in thousands) The source is located after the table
  Natural Increase - Average Natural Increase - Percentage Net immigration - Average Net immigration - Percentage
1997-2006 116.9 37.2% 197.0 62.8%
2007-2016 133.1 35.9% 237.7 64.1%
2017-2026 122.9 32.8% 252.4 67.2%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 13, Population Growth by Component, averages over: 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (in thousands)

Figure 14 - Contribution of New Immigrants and Domestic Supply to Total Labour Force Growth: Averages Over 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (in thousands) The source is located after the table
  1997-2006 2007-2016 2017-2026
New Immigrants Level 94,128 115,425 143,258
Domestic Supply (Labour Force minus new immigrants) 171,660 78,293 9,056
  1997-2006 2007-2016 2017-2026
New Immigrants Percentage 35.5% 59.6% 94.1%
Labour Force (less new immigrants) 64.6% 40.4% 5.9%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 14, Contribution of New Immigrants and Domestic Supply to Total Labour Force Growth: Averages Over 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (in thousands)

Figure 15 - Projected Number of People Moving Between Skill Levels, in Thousands and As a Percentage Share of Base-year Employment for Each Skill Level (2017-2026) The source is located after the table
  thousands percentage
Management 359.5 22.1%
Skill Level A 21.6 0.6%
Skill Level B 133.1 2.2%
Skill Level C -190.2 -3.9%
Skill Level D -324.0 -16.5%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 15, Projected Number of People Moving Between Skill Levels, in Thousands and As a Percentage Share of Base-year Employment for Each Skill Level (2017-2026)

Figure 16 - Sources of New Job Seekers: Totals Over 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (in thousands) The source is located after the table
  1997-2006 2007-2016 2017-2026
School leavers 4,067,568 4,650,060 5,026,066
Immigrants 878,776 1,112,556 1,236,062
Other 207,174 -432,678 -437,466

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 16, Sources of New Job Seekers: Totals Over 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (in thousands)

Figure 17 - Job Seekers by Skill Level, 2017-2026 (in thousands) The source is located after the table
  School Leavers Immigrants Mobility Others Job seekers (%)
Management 200,007 93,170 359,528 -30,431 10.7%
Skill Level A 1,046,430 246,735 21,574 -78,492 21.2%
Skill Level B 1,613,190 347,190 133,063 -143,014 33.5%
Skill Level C 1,419,385 355,357 -190,189 -123,860 25.1%
Skill Level D 747,055 193,610 -323,976 -61,669 9.55%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 17, Job Seekers by Skill Level, 2017-2026 (in thousands)

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