Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Data for the Figures of Macroeconomic Scenario (2015-2024)

Figure 1 - Growth in Canadian Population of Working Age over the periods 1975-1984, 1985-1994, 1995-2004, 2005-2014 and 2015-2024 (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
  1975-1984 1985-1994 1995-2004 2005-2014 2015-2024
Population Aged 15+ 1.9% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 0.9%
Population Aged 15-64 1.7% 1.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.2%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical data and projections).

Return at position of Figure 1, Growth in Canadian Population of Working Age over the periods 1975-1984, 1985-1994, 1995-2004, 2005-2014 and 2015-2024 (average annual growth, in percentage)

Figure 2 - Distribution of the Working-Age Population by Age Group in 1974, 1984, 1994, 2004, 2014 and 2024 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  1974 1984 1994 2004 2014 2024
15-24 26.5% 22.9% 17.3% 16.6% 15.5% 13.4%
25-54 51.0% 52.8% 57.1% 54.6% 50.0% 46.8%
55-64 11.1% 11.5% 10.8% 13.0% 15.9% 15.7%
65+ 11.4% 12.8% 14.9% 15.8% 18.7% 24.0%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical data and projections).

Return at position of Figure 2, Distribution of the Working-Age Population by Age Group in 1974, 1984, 1994, 2004, 2014 and 2024 (in percentage)

Figure 3 - Labour Force Participation Rates by Age Group over the period 1976-2024 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  15-24 25-54 55-64 65+
1976 63.5% 73.5% 53.1% 9.2%
1977 64.6% 74.1% 52.3% 8.5%
1978 65.6% 75.5% 52.1% 8.3%
1979 67.4% 76.4% 53.0% 8.3%
1980 68.6% 77.3% 52.6% 8.0%
1981 69.3% 78.7% 52.2% 7.8%
1982 67.3% 78.6% 51.7% 7.8%
1983 67.6% 79.4% 51.1% 7.3%
1984 68.0% 80.0% 50.5% 7.3%
1985 68.6% 81.1% 50.5% 7.2%
1986 69.7% 82.0% 49.6% 6.7%
1987 70.3% 82.6% 49.3% 6.7%
1988 70.6% 83.3% 49.4% 6.6%
1989 71.2% 84.0% 49.1% 6.7%
1990 69.9% 84.3% 49.2% 6.5%
1991 68.1% 84.1% 48.5% 6.5%
1992 66.2% 83.4% 48.2% 6.3%
1993 64.4% 83.5% 47.8% 6.1%
1994 63.9% 83.3% 47.1% 6.4%
1995 63.2% 83.3% 47.1% 6.1%
1996 62.2% 83.4% 47.2% 6.0%
1997 61.5% 83.9% 48.1% 6.2%
1998 61.8% 84.3% 48.7% 6.4%
1999 63.5% 84.7% 49.8% 6.0%
2000 64.4% 84.8% 50.9% 5.9%
2001 64.7% 85.1% 51.2% 5.9%
2002 66.5% 85.9% 53.4% 6.5%
2003 67.3% 86.4% 56.6% 7.4%
2004 66.9% 86.6% 57.3% 7.5%
2005 65.9% 86.3% 57.9% 8.0%
2006 66.2% 86.2% 58.6% 8.1%
2007 67.0% 86.6% 60.1% 8.8%
2008 67.3% 86.7% 60.4% 10.0%
2009 65.4% 86.5% 61.6% 10.5%
2010 64.5% 86.5% 62.2% 11.3%
2011 64.5% 86.4% 62.6% 11.8%
2012 63.6% 86.7% 63.4% 12.5%
2013 63.8% 86.7% 64.4% 13.0%
2014 66.2% 86.2% 64.4% 13.4%
2015 64.6% 86.2% 64.9% 12.9%
2016 64.9% 86.2% 65.5% 13.0%
2017 65.0% 86.9% 66.1% 13.1%
2018 65.1% 86.6% 66.6% 13.3%
2019 65.1% 86.7% 67.1% 13.5%
2020 65.0% 86.9% 67.5% 13.7%
2021 64.9% 87.1% 67.8% 13.8%
2022 64.8% 87.4% 68.0% 13.9%
2023 64.7% 87.6% 68.2% 14.1%
2024 64.7% 87.9% 68.4% 14.2%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2015 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 3, Labour Force Participation Rates by Age Group over the period 1976-2024 (in percentage)

Figure 4 - Overall Labour Force Participation Rate (15+ and 15-64) over the period 1976-2024 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  Population Aged 15+ Population Aged 15-64
1976 61.5% 67.9%
1977 61.9% 68.5%
1978 62.8% 69.6%
1979 63.7% 70.8%
1980 64.2% 71.6%
1981 65.0% 72.6%
1982 64.5% 72.0%
1983 64.7% 72.5%
1984 65.1% 73.0%
1985 65.6% 73.9%
1986 66.1% 74.6%
1987 66.5% 75.3%
1988 66.8% 75.9%
1989 67.2% 76.6%
1990 67.1% 76.6%
1991 66.6% 76.2%
1992 65.7% 75.3%
1993 65.4% 75.1%
1994 65.2% 74.9%
1995 64.8% 74.7%
1996 64.7% 74.6%
1997 64.8% 74.9%
1998 65.1% 75.2%
1999 65.5% 75.8%
2000 65.8% 76.2%
2001 65.9% 76.4%
2002 66.8% 77.4%
2003 67.5% 78.2%
2004 67.5% 78.2%
2005 67.1% 77.7%
2006 67.0% 77.7%
2007 67.4% 78.3%
2008 67.6% 78.5%
2009 67.2% 78.0%
2010 66.9% 77.8%
2011 66.7% 77.8%
2012 66.5% 77.8%
2013 66.4% 78.0%
2014 66.0% 77.7%
2015 65.7% 77.9%
2016 65.6% 78.1%
2017 65.5% 78.3%
2018 65.3% 78.5%
2019 65.2% 78.7%
2020 65.0% 78.9%
2021 64.9% 79.1%
2022 64.7% 79.3%
2023 64.5% 79.5%
2024 64.3% 79.7%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2015 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 4, Overall Labour Force Participation Rate (15+ and 15-64) over the period 1976-2024 (in percentage)

Figure 5 - Total Labour Force and its Annual Average Percentage Growth over the period 1978-2024The source is located after the table
  Growth (in percentage) Level (in millions)
1978 3.4% 11.2
1979 3.4% 11.5
1980 2.9% 11.9
1981 3.1% 12.2
1982 0.7% 12.3
1983 1.7% 12.5
1984 1.8% 12.8
1985 2.1% 13.0
1986 2.0% 13.3
1987 1.8% 13.5
1988 1.9% 13.8
1989 1.9% 14.0
1990 1.4% 14.2
1991 0.6% 14.3
1992 0.0% 14.3
1993 0.7% 14.4
1994 0.9% 14.6
1995 0.8% 14.7
1996 1.1% 14.8
1997 1.5% 15.1
1998 1.6% 15.3
1999 1.8% 15.6
2000 1.7% 15.8
2001 1.6% 16.1
2002 2.8% 16.6
2003 2.3% 16.9
2004 1.2% 17.2
2005 0.8% 17.3
2006 1.3% 17.5
2007 2.1% 17.9
2008 1.5% 18.1
2009 0.8% 18.3
2010 1.1% 18.4
2011 0.9% 18.6
2012 1.1% 18.8
2013 1.1% 19.0
2014 0.4% 19.1
2015 0.6% 19.2
2016 0.8% 19.4
2017 0.7% 19.5
2018 0.7% 19.7
2019 0.7% 19.8
2020 0.6% 19.9
2021 0.6% 20.1
2022 0.6% 20.2
2023 0.7% 20.3
2024 0.6% 20.4

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2015 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 5, Total Labour Force and its Annual Average Percentage Growth over the period 1978-2024

Figure 6 - Real and Potential GDP (in billions of 2007 dollars) over the period 1982-2024The source is located after the table
  Real GDP (Aggregate Demand) Potential GDP
1982 661.3 710.1
1983 679.1 725.5
1984 717.2 743.4
1985 754.4 762.7
1986 774.9 781.9
1987 805.4 802.0
1988 840.5 824.4
1989 858.8 845.8
1990 860.8 863.5
1991 844.7 881.2
1992 850.4 894.5
1993 870.6 910.0
1994 911.1 935.2
1995 934.4 960.0
1996 947.1 988.6
1997 988.4 1,025.0
1998 1,028.3 1,063.2
1999 1,087.8 1,102.1
2000 1,150.1 1,143.0
2001 1,167.1 1,182.0
2002 1,196.7 1,214.6
2003 1,221.6 1,244.4
2004 1,260.6 1,275.1
2005 1,296.4 1,307.4
2006 1,332.8 1,338.7
2007 1,364.5 1,365.7
2008 1,375.8 1,392.2
2009 1,328.2 1,407.4
2010 1,375.3 1,429.8
2011 1,416.5 1,453.8
2012 1,443.9 1,481.1
2013 1,473.2 1,508.2
2014 1,507.3 1,533.3
2015 1,535.9 1,557.2
2016 1,569.2 1,584.2
2017 1,605.1 1,613.0
2018 1,6439.6 1,644.0
2019 1,674.8 1,675.6
2020 1,708.3 1,707.1
2021 1,740.9 1,739.6
2022 1,774.0 1,772.8
2023 1,808.0 1,806.8
2024 1,842.7 1,841.5

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2015 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 6, Real and Potential GDP (in billions of dollars) over the period 1982-2024

Figure 7 - Annual Average Growth in Employment and Labour Force over the period 2000-2024 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  Employment Labour force
2000 2.5% 1.7%
2001 1.2% 1.6%
2002 2.4% 2.8%
2003 2.4% 2.3%
2004 1.7% 1.2%
2005 1.3% 0.8%
2006 1.8% 1.3%
2007 2.4% 2.1%
2008 1.7% 1.8%
2009 -1.6% 0.7%
2010 1.4% 1.1%
2011 1.5% 0.9%
2012 1.3% 1.1%
2013 1.4% 1.1%
2014 0.6% 0.4%
2015 0.8% 0.6%
2016 0.9% 0.8%
2017 1.0% 0.7%
2018 1.0% 0.7%
2019 0.7% 0.7%
2020 0.6% 0.6%
2021 0.6% 0.6%
2022 0.7% 0.6%
2023 0.7% 0.7%
2024 0.7% 0.6%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2015 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 7, Annual Average Growth in Employment and Labour Force over the period 2000-2024 (in percentage)

Figure 8 - U.S. Real GDP Annual Average Growth over the period 1982-2024 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  Real GDP Growth
1982 -1.9%
1983 4.6%
1984 7.3%
1985 4.2%
1986 3.5%
1987 3.5%
1988 4.2%
1989 3.7%
1990 1.9%
1991 -0.1%
1992 3.6%
1993 2.7%
1994 4.0%
1995 2.7%
1996 3.8%
1997 4.5%
1998 4.4%
1999 4.8%
2000 4.1%
2001 0.9%
2002 1.8%
2003 2.8%
2004 3.8%
2005 3.4%
2006 2.7%
2007 1.8%
2008 -0.3%
2009 -2.8%
2010 2.5%
2011 1.6%
2012 2.3%
2013 2.2%
2014 2.4%
2015 3.1%
2016 3.0%
2017 2.8%
2018 2.6%
2019 2.6%
2020 2.5%
2021 2.5%
2022 2.5%
2023 2.4%
2024 2.4%
  Average Annual Growth (in percentage)
2005-2014 +1.6%
2015-2024 +2.6%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (historical) and ESDC 2015 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 8, U.S. Real GDP Annual Average Growth over the period 1982-2024 (in percentage)

Figure 9 - Canada-U.S. Exchange Rate (in U.S. cents) and World Oil Prices (in U.S. dollars) over the period 1978-2024The source is located after the table
  Exchange Rate (in U.S. cents) Oil Prices (in U.S. dollars)
1978 87.7 14.9
1979 85.4 22.4
1980 85.5 37.4
1981 83.4 36.7
1982 81.1 33.6
1983 81.1 30.4
1984 77.2 29.2
1985 73.2 28.0
1986 72.0 15.0
1987 75.4 19.2
1988 81.3 16.0
1989 84.5 19.6
1990 85.7 24.5
1991 87.3 21.5
1992 82.7 20.6
1993 77.5 18.5
1994 73.2 17.2
1995 72.9 18.4
1996 73.3 22.2
1997 72.2 20.6
1998 67.5 14.4
1999 67.3 19.3
2000 67.3 30.3
2001 64.6 25.9
2002 63.7 26.1
2003 71.6 31.1
2004 77.0 41.4
2005 82.6 56.5
2006 88.2 66.1
2007 93.5 72.4
2008 94.3 99.6
2009 87.9 61.7
2010 97.1 79.4
2011 101.1 95.1
2012 100.1 94.2
2013 97.1 94.1
2014 90.5 93.3
2015 80.4 54.7
2016 83.0 68.2
2017 85.7 74.5
2018 86.3 78.4
2019 86.4 80.0
2020 86.4 79.4
2021 86.4 81.3
2022 86.4 83.6
2023 86.4 85.6
2024 86.4 87.8

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2015 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 9, Canada-U.S. Exchange Rate (in U.S. cents) and World Oil Prices (in U.S. dollars) over the period 1978-2024

Figure 10 - Canada’s Government Spending as a Share of Total Real GDP (includes government expenditures and investment) over the period 1992-2024 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  Share of Total Real GDP
1992 28.8
1993 28.1
1994 26.7
1995 25.8
1996 25.0
1997 23.6
1998 23.3
1999 22.8
2000 22.3
2001 22.9
2002 22.8
2003 23.0
2004 22.9
2005 22.8
2006 23.0
2007 23.3
2008 24.1
2009 25.8
2010 26.0
2011 25.1
2012 24.6
2013 24.2
2014 23.6
2015 23.3
2016 23.0
2017 22.9
2018 22.7
2019 22.5
2020 22.4
2021 22.3
2022 22.2
2023 22.1
2024 22.1

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2015 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 10, Canada’s Government Spending as a Share of Total Real GDP (includes government expenditures and investment) over the period 1992-2024 (in percentage)

Figure 11 - Growth in Real GDP, Final Domestic Demand and Exports over the periods 2005-2014 and 2015-2024 (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
  GDP (Aggregate Demand) Final Domestic Demand Exports (Foreign Demand)
2005-2014 1.9% 2.6% 0.7%
2015-2024 2.0% 1.7% 3.2%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2015 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 11, Growth in Real GDP, Final Domestic Demand and Exports over the periods 2005-2014 and 2015-2024 (average annual growth, in percentage)

Figure 12 - Growth in Major Components of Real Final Domestic Demand over the periods 2005-2014 and 2015-2024 (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
  Consumer Spending Residential Investment Investment in Non-Residential Structures Investment in Machinery & Equipment Government Spending & Investment
2005-2014 2.8% 1.5% 5.6% 2.2% 2.2%
2015-2024 2.0% 1.3% 0.2% 3.5% 1.4%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2015 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 12, Growth in Major Components of Real Final Domestic Demand over the periods 2005-2014 and 2015-2024 (average annual growth, in percentage)

Figure 13 - Real Net Exports over the period 1982-2024 (in percentage of total real GDP)The source is located after the table
  Real net exports
1982 2.5%
1983 4.8%
1984 4.4%
1985 5.1%
1986 4.5%
1987 4.3%
1988 3.9%
1989 2.4%
1990 3.0%
1991 2.9%
1992 3.5%
1993 4.5%
1994 5.8%
1995 6.9%
1996 7.2%
1997 6.1%
1998 7.5%
1999 8.7%
2000 9.2%
2001 9.3%
2002 9.0%
2003 7.1%
2004 6.4%
2005 5.0%
2006 3.6%
2007 2.1%
2008 0.3%
2009 0.0%
2010 -1.8%
2011 -2.2%
2012 -2.6%
2013 -2.3%
2014 -1.2%
2015 -0.2%
2016 0.3%
2017 0.4%
2018 0.7%
2019 0.9%
2020 1.1%
2021 1.2%
2022 1.4%
2023 1.6%
2024 1.7%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2015 COPS macroeconomic scenario (projections).

Return at position of Figure 13, Real Net Exports over the period 1982-2024 (in percentage of total real GDP)

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