Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Information Documents

Imbalances Between Labour Demand and Supply (2015-2024)

Every two years, the Economic Policy  Directorate (EPD) of Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) produces a detailed 10-year labour market forecast at the national level. ESDC uses projection models to identify likely trends over the medium term in the level, composition and sources of labour demand and labour supply. A key objective is to identify occupations where the current and projected states of supply and demand suggest that imbalances could develop or persist over time.

This document presents the results 2015 COPS projections. It provides a comprehensive analysis of occupational imbalances over the projection period.

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Job Seekers (2015-2024)

Every two years, the Economic Policy Directorate (EPD) of Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) produces a detailed 10-year labour market forecast at the national level. ESDC uses projection models to identify likely trends over the medium term in the level, composition and sources of labour demand and labour supply. A key objective is to identify occupations where the current and projected states of supply and demand suggest that imbalances could develop or persist over time.

This document presents the jobs seekers results by component that underlay the 2015 COPS projections.

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Job Openings (2015-2024)

Every two years, the Economic Policy Directorate (EPD) of Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) produces a detailed 10-year labour market forecast at the national level. ESDC uses forecasting models to identify likely trends over the medium term in the level, composition and sources of labour demand and labour supply. A key objective is to identify occupations where the current and projected states of supply and demand suggest that imbalances could develop or persist over time.

This document presents the job openings results by component that underlay the 2015 COPS projections.

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Industrial Scenario (2015-2024)

Occupational projections such as those prepared under the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) require the production of an industrial scenario to determine the future long-term trends in overall employment growth and in the distribution of employment across industries and occupations.

This document presents the industrial scenario that underlies the 2015 COPS projections. It provides a comprehensive analysis of the historical and future trends for the 33 industries covered by COPS, including a 10-year outlook for production and employment. The information is presented for different levels of industrial aggregation (sectors, sub-sectors and industries) and the projections are based on the anticipated changes in external and domestic drivers of aggregate demand presented in the macroeconomic scenario.

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Industrial Summaries (2015-2024)

The industrial summaries are provided as a complement to the industrial scenario. They present additional information and analysis about the historical and future performance of the 33 industries covered by COPS.  Each of the 33 industrial summaries includes the following information: definition and characteristics of the industry; key stylized facts and statistics; main occupations related to the industry; historical performance in terms of production, employment and productivity; domestic and external drivers of demand for goods or services produced by the industry; challenges and opportunities; and a 10-year outlook for the industry’s GDP and employment.

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Macroeconomic Scenario (2015-2024)

Occupational projections such as those prepared under the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) require the production of a macroeconomic scenario to determine the future long-term trends in overall employment growth and in the distribution of employment across industries and occupations.

This document presents the macroeconomic scenario that underlies the 2015 COPS projections. This scenario was developed in collaboration with the Conference Board of Canada based on information available as of Spring 2015.

The future long-term trends in Canada's economic growth will be heavily influenced by demographic developments, namely slower population growth and population aging. Such demographic changes, which cannot be avoided, are projected to have a major influence in the long-term evolution of Canada's labour force, employment, and economic potential.

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COPS Occupational Groupings

The 2011 National Occupational Classification (NOC) has 500 unit groups. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. To overcome this problem, small occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 292 occupational groupings of sufficient size in terms of employment were obtained. The table below displays the compositions of each of these groupings and the skill level where they belong according to NOC.

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