Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Information Documents

** NOTE **

The current COPS projections were completed in 2019, well before the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak that resulted in exceptional and abrupt economic and labour market disruptions in Canada as well as abroad. However, the focus of the COPS projections is on long-term trends in occupational labour markets, not on short-term developments. At the moment, these long-term trends are not expected to be affected markedly by the COVID-19 outbreak as its impacts are generally foreseen to be temporary.


Imbalances Between Labour Demand and Supply (2019-2028)

Every two years, the Economic Policy Directorate (EPD) of Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) produces a detailed 10-year labour market forecast at the national level. ESDC uses projection models to identify likely trends over the medium term in the level, composition and sources of labour demand and labour supply. A key objective is to identify occupations where the current and projected states of supply and demand suggest that imbalances could develop or persist over time.

This document presents the results 2019 COPS projections. It provides a comprehensive analysis of occupational imbalances over the projection period.

Files


Job Seekers (2019-2028)

Every two years, the Economic Policy Directorate (EPD) of Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) produces a detailed 10-year labour market forecast at the national level. ESDC uses projection models to identify likely trends over the medium term in the level, composition and sources of labour demand and labour supply. A key objective is to identify occupations where the current and projected states of supply and demand suggest that imbalances could develop or persist over time.

This document presents the jobs seekers results by component that underlay the 2019 COPS projections.

Files


Job Openings (2019-2028)

Every two years, the Economic Policy Directorate (EPD) of Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) produces a detailed 10-year labour market forecast at the national level. ESDC uses forecasting models to identify likely trends over the medium term in the level, composition and sources of labour demand and labour supply. A key objective is to identify occupations where the current and projected states of supply and demand suggest that imbalances could develop or persist over time.

This document presents the job openings results by component that underlay the 2019 COPS projections.

Files


Industrial Summaries (2019-2028)

The industrial summaries are provided as a complement to the industrial projections. They present additional information and further analysis about the historical and future performance of the 42 industries defined by COPS. Each of the industrial summaries includes the following information: definition and characteristics of the industry; key stylized facts and statistics; key occupations related to the industry; historical performance in terms of output, employment and productivity; domestic and external drivers of demand for goods or services produced by the industry; challenges, opportunities and technologies; and the outlook for the industry's productivity, GDP, and employment.

Files


Industrial Outlook (2019-2028)

Occupational projections such as those prepared under the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) require the production of an industrial scenario to determine the future long-term trends in overall employment growth and in the distribution of employment across industries and occupations. 

This document presents the industrial scenario that underlies the 2019 COPS projections. It provides an analysis of the historical and projected trends in output, employment and productivity by aggregate sector (primary, manufacturing, construction and services sectors), including a 10-year outlook for the 42 industries defined by COPS. The projections are based on the anticipated changes in external and domestic drivers of aggregate demand presented in the macroeconomic scenario. In addition to provide comparisons of output and employment projections across industries, the analysis also discusses the potential impact of new technologies (such as advanced robotics, mobile applications, machine learning and artificial intelligence) on productivity and employment growth by industry.

Files


Macroeconomic Outlook (2019-2028)

Occupational projections such as those prepared under the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) require the production of a macroeconomic scenario to determine the future long-term trends in overall employment growth and in the distribution of employment across industries and occupations. 

This document presents the macroeconomic scenario that underlies the 2019 COPS projections. This scenario was developed in collaboration with the Conference Board of Canada based on information available as of Spring 2019.

The future long-term trends in Canada’s economic growth will be heavily influenced by demographic developments, namely slower population growth and population aging. Such demographic changes, which cannot be avoided, are projected to have a major influence in the long-term evolution of Canada's labour force, employment, and economic potential.

Files


COPS Occupational Groupings

The 2016 National Occupational Classification (NOC) has 500 unit groups. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. To overcome this problem, small occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings of sufficient size in terms of employment were obtained. The table below displays the compositions of each of these groupings and the skill level where they belong according to NOC.

Files


Date modified: