Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Industrial Summary

Public Administration

NAICS 9111-9119; 9121-9129; 9131-9139; 9141; 9191

Public administration comprises establishments primarily engaged in activities of a governmental nature at the federal, provincial, territorial, regional, municipal and local levels. It covers legislative activities, taxation, national defence, public order and safety, immigration services, foreign affairs and international assistance, and the administration of government programs. The industry includes not only public servants, but also members of the Canadian armed forces, policemen and firefighters. The federal administration is the the largest of the five segments, accounting for 38% of production and 37% of employment in 2016 (excluding full time members of the Canadian armed forces), followed by local, municipal and regional administration (32% of production and 33% of employment), and provincial and territorial administration (27% and 29%). Aboriginal administration along with international and other extra-territorial administration account for the remaing share of production and employment (3% and 1%). Overall, public administration employed 927,300 workers in 2016, distributed proportionately to population: 38% in Ontario, 26% in Quebec, 11% in British Columbia, 10% in Alberta, and 15% in the remaining provinces and territories. The workforce is evenly split between men (49%) and women (51%) and benefits from much higher wages than the national average, partly attributable to high unionization rates (72%). Given the wide variety of activities, key occupations (4-digit NOC) include a mix of:

  • Police officers (4311)
  • Employment insurance, immigration, border services and revenue officers (1228)
  • Government managers (0411-0414)
  • Social policy researchers, consultants and program officers (4164)
  • Firefighters (4312)
  • Information systems analysts and consultants (2171)
  • Financial auditors and accountants (1111)
  • Correctional service officers (4422)
  • Lawyers and Quebec notaries (4112)
  • Computer programmers and interactive media developers (2174)
  • Security guards and related security service occupations (6541)
  • User support technicians (2282)
  • Natural and applied science policy researchers, consultants and program officers (4161)
  • Public works and maintenance labourers (7621)
  • Purchasing agents and officers (1225)
  • Civil engineers (2131)
  • Senior government managers and officials (0012)
  • Economists and economic policy researchers and analysts (4162)
  • Executive assistants (1222)
  • Financial managers (0111)
  • Construction inspectors (2264)
  • Inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety (2263)
  • Health policy researchers, consultants and program officers (4165)
  • Urban and land use planners (2153)
  • Civil engineering technologists and technicians (2231)
  • Correspondence, publication and regulatory clerks (1452)
  • Survey interviewers and statistical clerks (1454)
  • Probation and parole officers (4155)
  • Database analysts and data administrators (2172)
  • Program officers unique to government (4168)
  • Court officers and justices of the peace (1227)
  • Data entry clerks (1422)
  • By-law enforcement and other regulatory officers, n.e.c (4423)
  • Biologists and related scientists (2121)
  • Biological technologists and technicians (2221) Legislators (0011)
  • Court clerks (1416)
  • Engineering inspectors and regulatory officers (2262)
  • Agricultural and fish products inspectors (2222)
  • Translators, terminologists and interpreters (5125)
  • Technical occupations in geomatics and meteorology (2255)
  • Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries (2161)
  • Judges (4111)
  • Physicists and astronomers (2111)
  • Meteorologists and climatologists (2114)

During and shortly after the recession of 2008-2009, the various programs put in place by the federal and provincial governments in order to stimulate the economy boosted output and employment in public administration. As a result, from 2007 to 2011, real GDP and employment growth in this industry averaged 3.6% and 2.0% per year respectively. However, lower tax revenues and increased public spending resulted in large fiscal deficits across all levels of governments. Starting in 2012, the federal and provincial governments announced plans to curtail growth in spending programs in order to balance their budgets. This led to marginal declines in output and employment in public administration from 2012 to 2015. The federal government was the most restrictive in terms of program spending in order to achieve a balanced budget by 2014-2015. While the federal administration was successful in achieving its goal, the situation deteriorated again following the collapse in crude oil prices, as weaker economic growth in Canada reduced growth in government revenues. In 2016, the federal government increased spending significantly to stimulate the economy, strengthening output growth in public administration. This development, combined with hiring related to the 2016 Census, led to a notable rebound in employment. On average, real GDP in public administration increased at an annual rate of 1.8% over the period 2007-2016, compared to 1.1% for employment. Fiscal challenges were the main factors behind the creation of more efficient models to improve government program management and public services delivery, resulting in healthy gains in productivity.

Over the period 2017-2026, output and employment growth in public administration is projected to weaken significantly relative to the previous ten years, primarily reflecting additional pressures on public finances resulting from demographic changes. Slower growth in the working-age population and the decline anticipated in the overall participation rate due to population aging are projected to lower the pace of growth in the Canadian labour force over the long term, restraining employment and economic growth in the country, which in turn will affect growth in government revenues. In addition to erode the federal and provincial tax bases, population aging will put further pressures on the health care system, limiting the ability to expand expenditures in government programs and public administration. This double-edged sword will certainly lead to a prolonged period of cost containment for governments who already find themselves in delicate fiscal positions. As a result, real GDP growth in public administration is projected to average 1.1% annually from 2017 to 2026, a significant slowdown relative to the previous ten years. The decelaration in employment growth is projected to be even more pronounced, with job creation averaging only 0.4% per year, less than half the pace recorded from 2007 to 2016. By the end of the projection period, government hiring is expected to be negligible. In addition to fiscal constraints, the weaker pace of growth anticipated in Canada’s labour supply and the gradual tightening of the labour market are expected to induce governments to automate some of their operations and to keep implementing new labour-saving ways of delivering services, leading to further gains in productivity. With rapid advancements anticipated in cognitive technologies, government operations involving routine tasks (in occupations such as clerks, inspectors and program officers) are expected to become increasingly automated and performed by specialized software, smart systems and online applications, while those involving non-routine tasks (in occupations such as researchers, analysts and scientists) are expected to become increasingly complemented and enhanced by big data analytics, artificial intelligence and machine learning.

Real GDP and Employment Growth Rates in Public Administration

Figure showing the annual growth of real GDP and employment over the periods 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 for the industry of Public Administration. The data is shown on the table following this figure

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).

Text Version of Figure Real GDP and Employment Growth Rates in Public Administration, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026, in Percent
  Real GDP Employment
2007-2016 1.8 1.1
2017-2026 1.1 0.4

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).

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