Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Summary of results (2026-2035)
Background
COPS is a suite of models developed by ESDC to project labour demand and labour supply. It identifies potential labour market shortage/surplus across 459 of the 516 occupations (57 occupations were not assessed due to lack of information) included in the 2021 NOC at the national level for the 2026-2035 period.
The COPS process consists of three steps:
Step 1: The assessment of recent labour market conditions (2023-2025)
The methodology relies on the analysis of about 30 labour market indicators (e.g. unemployment rate, employment growth, job vacancies growth and duration, proportion of overtime workers and EI recipients, etc.) by occupation. Imbalances (shortages or surplus) are identified when indicators diverge significantly from the average for all occupations and/or their own historical norm.
Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and job seekers (2026-2035)
COPS projects the flows of new job openings (labour demand from job creation and replacement needs due to retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration) and new job seekers (labour market entrants from the school system, new immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and workers switching occupation) over the projection period.
Step 3: Future labour market conditions (by 2035)
Future labour market conditions are determined by combining Step 1 (recent labour market conditions) and Step 2 (projected flows of job seekers and job openings). Step 1 is used as a starting point, and Step 2 is used to assess whether the conditions identified in Step 1 will persist through or change during the projection period.
NOC 2021 Training, Education, Experience and Responsibilities (TEER) classification
The current exercise uses the 2021 NOC, which is the most up-to-date version of the classification. It has 516 occupations that are classified based on their usual Training, Education, Experience and Responsibilities (TEER) as follows:
- TEER 0: Management occupations
- TEER 1: Occupations usually requiring a university degree
- TEER 2: Occupations usually requiring a college diploma or apprenticeship of two or more years; or supervisory occupations
- TEER 3: Occupations usually requiring a college diploma or apprenticeship of less than two years; or more than six months of on-the-job training
- TEER 4: Occupations usually requiring a secondary school diploma; or several weeks of on-the-job training
- TEER 5: Occupations usually requiring short-term work demonstration and no formal education
Step 1 - Recent Conditions 2023-2025: Key Findings
During the first step, the assessment of recent conditions found 70 occupations showing strong or moderate signs of shortage conditions and 15 showing strong or moderate signs of surplus conditions over the period 2023-2025.
- These shortage conditions are largely concentrated in occupations related to Health; Trades, Transport and Equipment Operations, as well as Education and social services.
- At the NOC TEER level, shortage conditions are concentrated in occupations requiring university education (TEER level 1) or college diploma or apprenticeship training (TEER level 2 and 3)
- The few occupations with surplus conditions were concentrated among those requiring secondary school or specific training (TEER level 4).
The following tables present the lists of occupations that showed strong signs of shortage or surplus conditions over the period 2023-2025.
| Broad occupational category | Occupations with their NOC code |
|---|---|
| Natural and applied sciences and related occupations | 21300 - Civil engineers; 21310 - Electrical and electronics engineers; 21331 - Geological engineers; 21390 - Aerospace engineers; 22313 - Aircraft instrument, electrical and avionics mechanics, technicians and inspectors |
| Health | 31100 - Specialists in clinical and laboratory medicine; 31101 - Specialists in surgery; 31102 - General practitioners and family physicians; 31103 - Veterinarians; 31111 - Optometrists; 31112 - Audiologists and speech-language pathologists; 31120 - Pharmacists; 31121 - Dietitians and nutritionists; 31200 - Psychologists; 31202 - Physiotherapists; 31203 - Occupational therapists; 31209 - Other professional occupations in health diagnosing and treating; 31300 - Nursing coordinators and supervisors; 31301 - Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses; 31302 - Nurse practitioners; 31303 - Physician assistants, midwives and allied health professionals; 32101 - Licensed practical nurses; 32102 - Paramedical occupations; 32103 - Respiratory therapists, clinical perfusionists and cardiopulmonary technologists; 32109 - Other technical occupations in therapy and assessment; 32120 - Medical laboratory technologists; 32121 - Medical radiation technologists; 32122 - Medical sonographers; 32123 - Cardiology technologists and electrophysiological diagnostic technologists; 32124 - Pharmacy technicians; 32201 - Massage therapists; 33100 - Dental assistants and dental laboratory assistants; 33101 - Medical laboratory assistants and related technical occupations; 33102 - Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates |
| Education, law and social, community and government services | 41220 - Secondary school teachers; 41221 - Elementary school and kindergarten teachers; 41300 - Social workers; 41320 - Educational counsellors; 42101 - Firefighters; 42201 - Social and community service workers; 42202 - Early childhood educators and assistants; 42203 - Instructors of persons with disabilities; 43100 - Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants; 44101 - Home support workers, caregivers and related occupations |
| Sales and service | 62020 - Food service supervisors*; 63201 - Butchers - retail and wholesale |
| Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations | 72300 - Plumbers; 72310 - Carpenters; 72311 - Cabinetmakers; 72321 - Insulators; 72400 - Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics; 72401 - Heavy-duty equipment mechanics; 72402 - Heating, refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics; 72404 - Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors; 72410 - Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers; 72411 - Auto body collision, refinishing and glass technicians and damage repair estimators; 72422 - Electrical mechanics; 72600 - Air pilots, flight engineers and flying instructors; 72602 - Deck officers, water transport; 74201 - Water transport deck and engine room crew; 75210 - Boat and cable ferry operators and related occupations |
| Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations | 84101 - Oil and gas well drilling and related workers and services operators; 84120 - Specialized livestock workers and farm machinery operators*; 85100 - Livestock labourers*; 85101 - Harvesting labourers*; 85103 - Nursery and greenhouse labourers* |
| Occupations in manufacturing and utilities | 92101 - Water and waste treatment plant operators; 94141 - Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and related workers*; 94142 - Fish and seafood plant workers*; 95107 - Labourers in fish and seafood processing* |
Source: ESDC, COPS 2026 projections.
Bold: Occupations showing strong signs of shortage.
Note: *Seasonal shortages (shortage during the peak season of the year).
| Broad occupational category | Occupations with their NOC code |
|---|---|
| Business, finance and administration | 12012 Personnel and recruitment officers; 12113 Statistics officers and related research support occupations; 14110 Office administrative assistants; 14111 Data entry clerks |
| Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport | 51120 Producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations; 52100 Technical occupations related to museums and art galleries; 52119 Other technical and co-ordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting and the performing arts; 52120 Graphic designers and illustrators; 53111 Motion pictures, broadcasting, photography and performing arts assistants and operators |
| Sales and service | 65100 Cashiers |
| Occupations in manufacturing and utilities | 94112 Foundry workers; 94124 Labourers in wood, pulp and paper processing; 94200 Motor vehicle assemblers, inspectors and testers; 95102 Labourers in metal fabrication; 95105 Labourers in rubber and plastic products manufacturing |
Source: ESDC, COPS 2026 projections.
Bold: Occupations showing strong signs of surplus.
Step 2: 2026-2035 projection - Job openings and Job seekers
Job openings (new labour demand): A total of 7.45 million job openings (from economic growth and replacement needs) are expected over the period 2026-2035:
- About 1.7 million job openings are projected to come from employment growth driven by expanding economic activity, while 5.7 million are expected to arise from replacement demand, primarily due to retirements (4.4 million);
- As a result, replacement demand, driven primarily by retirements, is expected to account for 76.6% of all job openings projected over the 2026-2035 period; and
- Three-quarters of all projected job openings are in occupations that usually require post-secondary education or in management occupations.
Job seekers (new labour supply): Over 2026-2035, 7.9 million new job seekers are projected to enter the labour market (from school leavers, new immigrants, and working students), while 760,000 are expected to leave, resulting in a net inflow of 7.16 million job seekers:
- An inflow of 7.9 million job seekers from:
- School leavers are expected to contribute about 5.7 million new job seekers;
- New immigrants will contribute about 2.1 million new job seekers;
- A net increase of 128,000 students in the labour market;
- An outflow of 760 thousand seekers will leave the labour market led by the declined in the number of non-permanent residents in Canada.
Version Texte : Figure 1
| Category | Number |
|---|---|
| Unemployment in 2025 | 1.54 million |
| Retirement | 4.4 million |
| Net Job Growth | 1.7 million |
| Deaths and Emigrants | 1.3 million |
| Net Job Openings | 7.45 million |
| School Leavers | 5.7 million |
| New immigrants | 2.1 million |
| Students | 0.13 million |
| Others | -0.76 million |
| Net Job Seekers | 7.16 million |
| Unemployment in 2035 | 1.25 million |
Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC, COPS 2026 projections.
After very tight labour markets in 2022 and 2023, the labour market loosened in 2024 and 2025. Despite this, a considerable number of occupations were facing shortages in 2025.
As the volumes of job seekers and job openings are expected to be relatively similar, the number of occupations in shortage is expected to remain important.
Step 3: 2026-2035 projection - Future conditions
A total of 82 occupations are expected to have a moderate or strong risk of facing shortage conditions over the projection period:
- Most of these occupations were already showing signs of shortages over the 2023-2025 period (Step 1). For example Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses will continue to face a strong risk of shortages over the projection period..
- 12 new occupations are expected to face risks of shortages, with projected new job openings substantially outpacing projected new job seekers. For instance, Bricklayers were found to be in relative balance over the period 2023-2025 but are expected to be at risk of facing shortages over the 2026-2035 projection period..
- It should be noted that occupations facing a risk of shortages over the projection period are primarily concentrated in health occupations; trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations; occupations in education, law, and social, community and government services; as well as occupations in manufacturing and utilities.. Certain occupations at risk are also found in natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations; natural and applied sciences and related occupations; sales and service occupations; and business, finance and administration occupations.
- Finally, 22 occupations were found to be at risk to face surpluses, , mostly related to art, culture, recreation and sport; business, finance and administration; and manufacturing and utilities..
Users can find the list of occupations with risks of facing shortage or surplus conditions over the 2026-2035 period in the following tables.
| Broad occupational category | Occupations with their NOC code |
|---|---|
| Business, finance and administration | 13200 – Customs, ship and other brokers |
| Natural and applied sciences and related occupations | 21300 - Civil engineers; 21310 - Electrical and electronics engineers; 21331 - Geological engineers; 21390 - Aerospace engineers 22313 - Aircraft instrument, electrical and avionics mechanics, technicians and inspectors |
| Health | 31100 - Specialists in clinical and laboratory medicine; 31101 - Specialists in surgery; 31102 - General practitioners and family physicians; 31103 - Veterinarians; 31111 - Optometrists; 31112 - Audiologists and speech-language pathologists; 31120 - Pharmacists; 31121 - Dietitians and nutritionists; 31200 - Psychologists; 31202 - Physiotherapists; 31203 - Occupational therapists; 31209 - Other professional occupations in health diagnosing and treating; 31300 - Nursing coordinators and supervisors; 31301 - Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses; 31302 - Nurse practitioners; 31303 - Physician assistants, midwives and allied health professionals; 32101 - Licensed practical nurses; 32102 - Paramedical occupations; 32103 - Respiratory therapists, clinical perfusionists and cardiopulmonary technologists; 32109 - Other technical occupations in therapy and assessment; 32120 - Medical laboratory technologists; 32121 - Medical radiation technologists; 32122 - Medical sonographers; 32123 - Cardiology technologists and electrophysiological diagnostic technologists; 32124 - Pharmacy technicians; 32201 - Massage therapists; 33100 - Dental assistants and dental laboratory assistants; 33101 - Medical laboratory assistants and related technical occupations; 33102 - Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates |
| Education, law and social, community and government services | 41220 - Secondary school teachers; 41221 - Elementary school and kindergarten teachers; 41300 - Social workers; 41320 - Educational counsellors; 42101 - Firefighters; 42201 - Social and community service workers; 42202 - Early childhood educators and assistants; 42203 - Instructors of persons with disabilities; 43100 - Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants; 44101 - Home support workers, caregivers and related occupations |
| Sales and service | 62020 - Food service supervisors*; 62201 - Funeral directors and embalmers; 63201 - Butchers - retail and wholesale; 63221 Upholsterers |
| Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations | 72300 - Plumbers; 72310 - Carpenters; 72311 - Cabinetmakers; 72320 - Bricklayers; 72321 - Insulators; 72400 - Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics; 72401 - Heavy-duty equipment mechanics; 72402 - Heating, refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics; 72404 - Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors; 72410 - Automotive service technicians, truck and bus mechanics and mechanical repairers; 72411 - Auto body collision, refinishing and glass technicians and damage repair estimators; 72422 - Electrical mechanics; 72600 - Air pilots, flight engineers and flying instructors; 72602 - Deck officers, water transport; 74201 - Water transport deck and engine room crew; 75210 - Boat and cable ferry operators and related occupations |
| Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations | 80020 – Managers in agriculture; 84101 - Oil and gas well drilling and related workers and services operators; 84120 - Specialized livestock workers and farm machinery operators*; 85100 - Livestock labourers*; 85101 - Harvesting labourers*; 85102 – Aquaculture and marine harvest labourers; 85103 - Nursery and greenhouse labourers* |
| Occupations in manufacturing and utilities | 92101 - Water and waste treatment plant operators; 93200 – Aircraft assemblers and aircraft assembly inspectors; 94103 – Concrete, clay and stone forming operators; 94104 – Inspectors and testers, mineral and metal processing; 94141 - Industrial butchers and meat cutters, poultry preparers and related workers*; 94142 - Fish and seafood plant workers*; 94150 – Plateless printing equipment operators; 94211 – Assemblers and inspectors of other wood products; 95104 – Labourer in rubber and plastic product manufacturing; 95107 - Labourers in fish and seafood processing* |
Source: ESDC, COPS 2026 projections.
Note: *Seasonal shortages (shortage during the peak season of the year).
Bold: Occupations expected to face strong risks of shortage conditions (2026-2035).
| Broad occupational category | Occupations with their NOC code |
|---|---|
| Business, finance and administration | 12012 - Supervisors, library, correspondence and related information workers; 12113 Statistics officers and related research support occupations; 14102 Personnel Clerks; 14110 - Survey interviewers and statistical clerks; 14111 - Data entry clerks |
| Natural and applied sciences and related occupations | 22112 – Forestry technologists and technicians; 22222 – Information systems testing technicians |
| Education, law and social, community and government services | 45100 – Student monitors, crossing guards and related occupations |
| Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport | 51100 Librarians; 51112 – Technical writers; 51120 - Producers, directors, choreographers and related occupations; 52100 - Library and public archive technicians; 52119 - Other technical and coordinating occupations in motion pictures, broadcasting and the performing arts; 52120 - Graphic designers and illustrators; 53111 - Motion pictures, broadcasting, photography and performing arts assistants and operators |
| Sales and service | 64300 – Maîtres d’hôtel and hosts/hostesses; 65100 - Cashiers |
| Occupations in manufacturing and utilities | 94112 - Rubber processing machine operators and related workers; 94124 - Woodworking machine operators; 94200 - Motor vehicle assemblers, inspectors and testers; 95102 - Labourers in chemical products processing and utilities; 95105 - Labourers in textile processing and cutting |
Source: ESDC, COPS 2026 projections.
Bold: Occupations expected to face strong risks of surplus conditions (2026-2035).
Annex
Key assumptions underlying the occupational projections
Population growth
Statistics Canada’s medium population growth projection scenario published on January 27, 2026.
Immigration
- Aligned with IRCC 2026-2028 target plans: 380,000 per year (2026 to 2028), plus a two years one-time initiative adding about 75,000 in the first two years. For the remaining projection period covered by COPS, a rate of 9.1 new immigrants per 1,000 population.
- Reduction in the number on non-permanent residents (NPR) in 2026 and 2027 in order to reach 5% of the population by the end of 2027. Number of NPR remains just below 5% from 2028 to 2035.
Participation rates
- Projected by age, educational attainment level and gender: increasing, but at a slower pace
- Overall participation rate (15+): as participation drops with age, aging implies a decline in the overall participation rate
Employment growth
- Weaker population growth in the short-term will translate into weaker labour force and employment growth during the first three years of the projection period. In the medium-term, population aging and the overall decline in the participation rate will restrain employment growth.
- Massive retirements of baby-boomers from the labour market will continue to generate job vacancies, which will facilitate job finding for any new unemployed individual, thereby maintaining the low unemployment rate.
Trade
The macroeconomic forecast that anchors the industrial outlook was prepared in March 2026, and the industry-specific forecasts reflect information available through April 2026.
- It assumes that no additional tariffs would be imposed and the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) would be renegotiated and adopted without changes.
Housing
- In the short term, the outlook for housing starts follows CMHC's forecast, which projects a decline over the 2026-2028 period. Weaker housing demand, driven by high home prices and slower household formation, is expected to reduce incentives for new residential construction.
- In the long term, housing starts are expected to increase gradually, reaching 285,000 units by 2035, which would represent a record high. Growth in housing supply is expected to be supported by a range of federal and provincial programs and incentives, including the Build Canada Homes initiative.
Structural forces
- Acceleration in productivity supported by increased investment in technology, software, automation and artificial intelligence.
- The projection assumes a gradual transition from the consumption-led growth that has dominated much of the past decade to a more investment-driven growth.
- Contribution of population growth and labour force expansion are expected to moderate with the combined impact of population aging and weaker population growth.
- Investment and productivity gains are expected to assume a larger role in supporting economic growth. This will be led by government investment in major projects, increased spending on defence, a more favourable regulatory environment for energy and natural resource development, and continued investment in enabling infrastructure.
- Strong government support towards investment through the Major Projects Office and government intention to increase defence spending from 2% of GDP to 3.5% by 2035 and invests an additional 1.5% of GDP in defence and security.