Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Imbalances Between Labour Demand and Supply (2015-2024)

The previous COPS projections for the period 2013-2022 used data coded according to the 2006 National Occupational Classification (NOC).

The current exercise uses the 2011 NOC, which is the most up-to-date version of the classification.

The 2011 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment (less than 10,000 workers). To overcome this problem, small occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 292 occupational groupings of sufficient size in terms of employment were obtained. Occupations that were grouped are marked with an asterisk (*).

For more information on the 292 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.

In order to assess projected labour market conditions, the COPS analyzes if the recent labour market imbalances are expected to persist over time or if new imbalances are expected to develop. The methodology used for assessing recent occupational labour market conditions relies on information from three primary labour market indicators (unemployment rate, wages and employment), as well as information from additional indicators (such as job vacancies, overtime and EI information), and involves a careful analysis of that information. If the indicators in a particular occupation (or skill level) behave similarly to all occupations, no signs of broad imbalances are said to be found. However, if the indicators are significantly different than the average for all occupations, it would suggest the presence of imbalanced (shortage or surplus) labour markets.

Once the analysis of the recent occupational labour market conditions is done, COPS estimates the projected number of job openings and job seekers over the period 2015-2024. Job openings can result from employment growth (or expansion demand) and replacement of workers (retirements, deaths and emigration). On the other hand, the sources of new job seekers include full-time students leaving the school system as graduates or drop-outs to join the labour market (school leavers), new immigrants and net re-entrants. In addition to job seekers and job openings, COPS takes into account changes in the labour market composition through occupational mobility.

Finally, the assessment of recent labour market conditions and the projections of job openings and job seekers are combined together to produce the final assessment of future labour market conditions. By looking at prospective changes in both the demand and supply sides of the labour market, COPS allows for identifying occupations where potential labour market imbalances are expected to persist or develop.

Table 1: Occupations showing signs of labour shortage or labour surplus in recent years (2012 to 2014)
Occupations showing signs of: Number of Occupations Share of occupations Employment (2014) Share of total employment (2014)
Shortage 17 6% 1,116,700 6%
Balance 257 88% 16,062,800 90%
Surplus 18 6% 622,800 4%
Total 292 100% 17,802,000 100%
Occupations showing signs of labour shortage Occupations showing signs of labour surplus
  • 7 health-related occupations
  • 5 occupational groupings related to applied sciences
  • 3 occupations related to trades and construction
  • 2 other occupations
  • 4 occupations in primary sector
  • 3 sales and services occupations
  • 3 trades
  • 3 manufacturing-related occupations
  • 2 clerical and office occupations
  • 2 other occupations

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2015 COPS Projections.

Table 1 summarizes the results of the assessment of occupational labour market conditions over the period 2012-2014.

The assessment found 17 occupations showing signs of labour shortage. They represent about 6% of the occupations analyzed, and about 6% of the 2014 Canadian employment. Most of them typically require some form of post-secondary education or apprenticeship training and are predominantly in health, skilled trades related professions and occupational groupings related to applied sciences.

On the other hand, 18 occupations where found to show signs of labour surplus. They represent about 6% of the occupations analyzed, and about 4% of the 2014 employment. Most of them typically require only a high-school diploma or on-the-job training and are predominantly in the sales and services occupations.

A Review of Job Openings and Job Seekers by Skill Level

Once the analysis of the recent occupational labour market conditions is done, COPS estimates the projected number of job openings and job seekers over the period 2015-2024. This is done in order to identify if recent labour market imbalances are expected to persist or if new imbalances are expected to develop over the projection period. Projections of job openings and job seekers are conducted at the occupational level and results are then aggregated by skill level. Skill levels are generally defined as the amount and type of education and training required to enter and perform the duties of an occupation. There are five broad skill level categories: 1) management occupations; 2) skill level A, which includes occupations usually requiring university education; 3) skill level B which includes occupations usually requiring college education or apprenticeship training; 4) skill level C which includes occupations usually requiring secondary school and/or occupation-specific training; and 5) skill level D which includes occupations for which on-the-job training is usually provided. For more information on the occupational analysis, please see the documents titledJob Openings and Job Seekers.

Figure 1: Job Openings from Expansion and Replacement Demand by Skill Level, 2015-2024

Bar figure showing the cumulative job openings from expansion and replacement demand by skill level over the projection period 2015-2024. The data is shown on the link following this figure

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2015 COPS Projections.

Text version of Figure1: Job Openings from Expansion and Replacement Demand by Skill Level, 2015-2024

Figure 1 shows that a total of 5.95 million job openings (those due to economic growth plus those due to replacement needs) are expected over the period 2015-2024.

Two-thirds (65.9%) of these are in occupations that usually require post-secondary education (college, university or vocational) or in management occupations. More specifically:

On the other hand, about one-third of job openings (around 2.02 million) over the projection period are expected to be in occupations requiring high school education or only on-the-job training. This can be seen in Figure 2, whichshows the expected total of job seekers over the period 2015-2024.

Figure 2: Cumulative Job Seekers by Skill Level, 2015-2024

Bar figure showing the cumulative job seekers from school leavers, immigrants, mobility and others, by skill level over the projection period 2015-2024. The data is shown on the link following this figure

Source: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2015 COPS Projections.

Text version of Figure2: Cumulative Job seekers by Skill Level, 2015 2024

It is projected that a total of 5.83 million job seekers (from the school system, immigration or other sources) will enter the labour market over the period 2015-2024 (Figure 2).

About two-thirds (64.8% - around 3.81 million individuals) of these entrants are anticipated to be in occupations that usually require post-secondary education (college, university or vocational) or in management occupations. More specifically:

By contrast, over the period 2015-2024, one-third of job seekers (around 2.02 million) are expected to look for work in occupations requiring high school education or only on-the-job training.

Projected Labour Market Conditions by Skill Level

By skill level, the indicators used to assess recent labour market conditions did not behave in a substantially different way from the average of all occupations, suggesting little or no evidence of labour market imbalances by broad skill level in recent years. The only (small) differences were that the unemployment rate was slightly lower than average in skill level A, and higher than average in skill level D.

Figure 3: Projected Ratios of Job Openings and Job Seekers by Skill Level over the Period 2015-2024 as Annual Average Percentage of 2014 Employment

Scatter figure showing the projected job openings (vertical axis) and job seekers (horizontal axis) by skill level over the period 2015-2024 as annual average percentage of 2014 employment. The data is shown on the link following this figure

Source: ESDC 2015 COPS Projections.

Text version of Figure3:Projected Ratios of Job Openings and Job Seekers by Skill Level over the Period 2015-2024 as Annual Average Percentage of 2014 Employment

Figure 3 shows, for each skill level, the projected ratios average of job openings (vertical axis) and job seekers (horizontal axis) as an annual percentage of their respective employment level in 2014. For example, a ratio of job openings to employment of 4% indicates that the average annual number of job openings (from expansion and replacement demand) in a given skill level over the projection period represents 4% of its employment level in 2014.

For points close to the 45 degreeline, the expected ratios of job openings and job seekers to employment are relatively similar. That is, no major imbalances between the number of job openings and job seekers are expected. On the other hand, any point markedly away from the 45 degreeline would signal potential labour market imbalances. Towards the upper left (green) corner, the signals would be of excess demand. Towards the lower right (red) corner, the signals would be of excess supply conditions.

Overall, all skill groupings fall close to the 45 degreeline, which means that job openings (demand) and job seekers (supply) by skill level are projected to be broadly in balance over the period 2015-2024.

With limited or no evidence of imbalances between labour demand and supply in recent years, and with the projections showing a similar number of job openings and job seekers for each broad skill level over the period 2015-2024, no major pressures by skill level are expected over the period 2015-2024.

Projected Labour Market Conditions by Occupation

Even when labour market conditions are broadly in balance for an aggregate skill level, imbalances (excess demand or supply) can exist in many occupations within that skill level. This chart shows, for each of the 292 occupations analyzed, the projected annual average of job openings (vertical axis) and job seekers (horizontal axis) as a percentage share of their respective employment level in 2014. Occupations are colour-coded according to their NOC skill level.

Figure 4: Projected Ratios of Job Openings and Job Seekers by Occupation over the Period 2015-2024 as Annual Average Percentage of 2014 Employment

Scatter figure showing the projected job openings (vertical axis) and job seekers (horizontal axis) by occupation over the period 2015-2024 as annual average percentage of 2014 employment. The data is shown on the link following this figure

Source: ESDC 2015 COPS Projections.

Text version of Figure4: Projected Ratios of Job Openings and Job Seekers by Occupation over the Period 2015-2024 as Annual Average Percentage of 2014 Employment

For points close to the 45 degreeline, the expected ratios of job openings and job seekers to employment are relatively similar. That is, no major imbalance between new job openings and job seekers are expected. On the other hand, any point substantially further from the boundary lines (dotted lines) would signal potential imbalances between the number of job openings and the number of job seekers. Towards the lower right corner, it signals that the occupation has a higher rate of job seekers than of job openings (excess supply). Towards the upper left corner, it signals that the occupation has a higher rate of job openings than of job seekers (excess demand). The overall distribution of the growth in the supply and demand of labour determines the position of those boundaries.

The majority of the 292 occupations are in proximity of the 45 degreeline, indicating an expectation of overall balance situation over the period 2015-2024. However, some occupations, mainly high-skill, are expected to have ratios of job openings to employment that exceed those from job seekers (excess demand). On the other hand, some other occupations mostly requiring secondary schooling and some requiring college education or apprenticeship training are projected to have ratios of job seekers to employment that exceed those from job openings (excess supply).

However, these results only show us the expected imbalances between the projected number of job openings and job seekers. Projected labour market conditions are determined by combining information on conditions in recent years and projected trends in job seekers and job openings.

Table 2: Projected Labour Market Conditions over the Period 2015-2024
    Projected Gap between Job Openings and Job Seekers over 2015-2024
    Openings significantly higher than Seekers Openings similar to Seekers Openings significantly lower than Seekers
Recent Labour Market Conditions Recently in shortage
SHORTAGE
4 Occupations
Mostly in the health sector
SHORTAGE
13 Occupations
All but one high skilled 5 in health
 
Recently in balance
SHORTAGE
13 Occupations High skilled: 13 Occ.'s
Low skilled: 1 Occ.'s
BALANCE
216 Occupations
Widespread across all sectors
SURPLUS
28 Occupations Widespread,
but contains 16 high skilled
Recently in surplus  
SURPLUS
15 Occupations
High skilled: 8 Occ.'s
Low skilled: 7 Occ.'s
SURPLUS
3 Occupations All low skilled

Source: ESDC 2015 COPS Projections.

Table 2 presents a summary of the projected labour market conditions at the occupational level. The rows present the occupational split between occupations showing signs of shortage, surplus or balanced conditions in recent years. The columns show the distribution of occupations with projected gaps between job openings and job seekers over the period 2015-2024. The intersection of rows and columns shows the final projected labour market conditions. For example, occupations that were first found to show signs of shortage in recent years (first row) and whose projected job openings are substantially higher than job seekers (first column), are expected to face shortage conditions over the projection period.

Hence, occupations located in the top left quadrants are expected to face shortage conditions over the projection period. This is because their shortage conditions in recent years are not expected to be eliminated over the projection period, or because those that were found to be in balance in recent years are expected to have a shortfall of their projected number of job seekers in comparison to job openings. On the other hand, occupations located in the bottom right quadrantsdisplay a certain level of surplus pressures. The occupations in the middle, top-right and bottom-left blocks are expected to be balanced over the projection period.

Table 3 presents the projected labour market conditions for all 292 occupations (4-digit or occupational groupings).

Table 3: Projected Labour Market Conditions over the Period 2015-2024
    Projected Gap between Job Openings and Job Seekers over 2015-2024
    Openings significantly higher than Seekers Openings similar to Seekers Openings significantly lower than Seekers
Recent Labour Market Conditions Recently in shortage 3012, 3112, 7242*, 7511

2120*, 2161, 2173, 2232, 2243*, 3131, 3132, 3141, 3213, 3232*, 7237, 7252, 9214*

 
Recently in balance

1122, 2146*, 2234, 2270*, 3111, 3113, 3120*, 3231, 3233, 4021, 4151, 7202, 7302

0010*, 0111, 0112, 0113*, 0121, 0122, 0124*, 0211*, 0213, 0311, 0410*, 0421, 0422, 0423, 0430*, 0510*, 0601, 0621, 0631, 0632, 0651, 0711, 0712, 0714, 0731, 0811, 0820*, 0910*, 1111, 1112, 1113, 1114, 1121, 1123, 1211, 1212, 1213*, 1221, 1222, 1223, 1224, 1225, 1227*, 1242, 1243, 1250*, 1311, 1312*, 1411, 1414, 1431, 1432, 1450*, 1511, 1512, 1513, 1521, 1522*, 1525*, 2110*, 2131, 2132, 2133, 2134, 2141*, 2143*, 2147, 2151, 2152*, 2171, 2172, 2175, 2210*, 2221, 2222*, 2225, 2231, 2233, 2241, 2250*, 2261*, 2264, 2281, 3011, 3114, 3142, 3143*, 3211*, 3214*, 3217*, 3220*, 3234, 3413*, 4011, 4012, 4031, 4032, 4033, 4110*, 4152*, 4153, 4154, 4156, 4162*, 4164*, 4166*, 4168*, 4211, 4212, 4214, 4215, 4311, 4312*, 4411, 4412, 4413, 4420*, 5110*, 5121*, 5125, 5133*, 5210*, 5221, 5243*, 6211, 6221, 6222, 6231, 6232, 6235, 6311, 6312*, 6321, 6331, 6341, 6411, 6421, 6511, 6512, 6513, 6521, 6522, 6523*, 6525, 6541, 6561*, 6611, 6621, 6622, 6711, 6731, 6732, 6733, 6740*, 7201, 7203, 7204, 7205, 7231*, 7233*, 7241, 7244*, 7246*, 7251, 7271, 7281, 7282*, 7284, 7292*, 7295, 7301*, 7304*, 7311, 7312, 7313*, 7314*, 7321, 7330*, 7360*, 7370*, 7441, 7442*, 7450*, 7512, 7513, 7514, 7521, 7522, 7530*, 8211, 8220*, 8231, 8232, 8241, 8252*, 8410*, 8420*, 8432, 9211*, 9213, 9220*, 9240*, 9410*, 9420*, 9431*, 9461*, 9462, 9470*, 9521*, 9524*, 9531*, 9532*, 9611*, 9613*, 9614, 9617* 1226, 1434*, 2174, 2242, 2282*, 3411, 4161, 4216*, 5131*, 5222*, 5230*, 5241, 5242, 5250*, 6322, 6332, 6530*, 6551, 6562, 6720*, 7291, 7294, 7610*, 8431, 8612, 9432*, 9441*, 9523
Recently in surplus  

0130*, 1241, 1415*, 6342*, 6552, 6623, 7272, 7322, 7380*, 7620*, 8260*, 8611*, 8614*, 9230*, 9616*

1422*, 8440*, 9446

Note 1: Occupations with a star are groupings of 4-digit occupations (including 3-digit occupations which are considered as groups of 4-digit occupations).
Note 2: Occupations in bold are those where at least 50% of their workers were women in 2014.
Please visit http://www23.hrsdc.gc.ca/w.2lc.4m.2@-eng.jsp for more information on the 292 occupational groupings.

Source: ESDC 2015 COPS Projections.

Table 3 shows that the large majority of the occupations (216) are expected to have a balanced outlook. These occupations represented about 77.9% of the employment in 2014. Occupations expected to face shortage conditions (30) represented about 9.4% of the 2014 employment, while occupations expected to face surplus conditions (46) represented about 12.6% of the 2014 employment.

Note: In a diversified economy such as Canada’s, with different regions having quite different industrial mixes and demographics, a national-level assessment of pressures in occupational labour markets could easily mask major differences across regions. Some parts of the country may be facing a labour shortfall in an occupation while other regions may have excess supply in that same occupation. Also, it is important to remember that the analysis is based on broad occupational groupings. Therefore, although the projections show balance conditions for all university professors, there might be some particular fields of study facing shortage or surplus conditions. For example, there might be a sufficient number of mathematics professors but a shortage of engineering professors.

Table 4 shows that a large number of occupations that are expected to face labour shortage (excess labour demand) over the projection period are in health, natural and applied sciences, trades, transport and equipment. They are almost all high-skilled occupations (occupations usually requiring a college or a university education, or management occupations).

The analysis of recent labour market conditions suggests that all the occupations projected to be in excess demand over the medium term were already in that situation or in balance in recent years. For instance, higher health care needs due to population ageing will increase demand for several health care occupations. Over the medium term, additional pressures will come from retirements in the health occupations. The number of job openings resulting from retirements will surpass those from new job creation. Therefore, despite the increase in the supply of new workers, the strong labour demand in health occupations is expected to exceed markedly the expected supply over the projection period.

Table 4: Occupations Projected to be in Shortage Conditions by NOC Skill Type over the Period 2015-2024
Skill Types Occupations in Shortage
Business, Finance and Administration Occupations 1122 - Professional occs. in business management consulting
Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations 2120* - Life science professionals, 2146* - Aerospace engineers & Other professional engineers, n.e.c., 2161 - Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries, 2173 - Software engineers and designers, 2232 - Mechanical engineering technologists and technicians, 2234 - Construction estimators, 2243* - Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics & Aircraft instrument, electrical and avionics mechanics, technicians and inspectors, 2270* - Transportation officers and controllers
Health Occupations 3012 - Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses, 3111 - Specialist physicians, 3112 - General practitioners and family physicians, 3113 – Dentists, 3120* - Optometrists, chiropractors and other health diagnosing and treating practitioners, 3131 – Pharmacists, 3132 - Dietitians and nutritionists, 3141 - Audiologists and speech-language pathologists, 3213 - Animal health technologists and veterinary technicians, 3231 – Opticians, 3232* - Practitioners of natural healing; Massage therapists & Other technical occs. in therapy and assessment, 3233 - Licensed practical nurses
Occupations in Social Science, Education, Government Service and Religion 4021 - College and other vocational instructors, 4151 - Psychologists
Trades Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occupations 7202 - Contractors and supervisors, electrical trades and telecommunications occs., 7237 - Welders and related machinery operators, 7242* - Industrial electricians & Power system electricians, 7252* - Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers & Gas fitters, 7302 - Contractors and supervisors, heavy equipment operator crews, 7511 - Transport truck drivers
Occupations Unique to Manufacturing and Utilities 9214* - Supervisors, plastic and rubber products manufacturing; Supervisors, forest products processing & Supervisors, textile, fabric, fur and leather products processing and manufacturing

Note 1: Occupations with a star are groupings of 4-digit occupations (including 3-digit occupations which are considered as groups of 4-digit occupations).
Note 2: Occupations in bold are those where at least 50% of their workers were women in 2014.

Source: ESDC 2015 COPS Projections.

Men are more represented than women in most occupations projected to face shortage conditions, with the exception of occupations in health and in the social science, education, government service and religion sectors. All occupations in trades, transport and equipment or manufacturing and utilities projected to face shortage conditions are male dominated.

Although the share of women in natural and applied sciences and related occupations has increased over the last two decades, all occupations facing shortage conditions in this sector employed more men than women in 2014.

Figure 5 shows an exampleof the assessment of an occupation expected to face shortage conditions over the period 2015-2024.

Figure 5: Example of an occupation projected to face shortage conditions: Psychologists (NOC 4151)

Recent Labour Market Conditions:
Balance Conditions

Projected Job Openings and Job Seekers:
Job Openings > Job Seekers
Labour Market Outlook:
Shortage Conditions
Bar figure showing the expected job openings and job seekers by components of the occupation Psychologists (NOC 4151), as an example of an occupation projected to face shortage conditions over the projection period. The data is shown on the link following this figure

Source: ESDC 2015 COPS Projections.

Text version of Figure5: Example of an occupation projected to face shortage conditions: Psychologists (NOC 4151)

Over the period 2012-2014, employment growth in this occupational group was below the average of all occupations. The unemployment rate remained relatively stable and very low at 1.3% in 2014, well below the national average of 6.9%. The increase in the average hourly wage was at par with the average of all occupations. Hence, analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was sufficient to fill the job openings in this occupational group.

Figure 5 shows that the period 2015-2024, for Psychologists, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 10,000 while job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to total 8,800, which means that over 1,000 jobs would remain unfilled.

Based on the analysis of recent labour market conditions and the projections, it is expected that this occupation will face a labour shortage over the period 2015-2024. Job openings are projected to arise mainly from retirements but also from a strong expansion demand. Although employment growth is expected to be much stronger than the economic average, it is projected to be substantially weaker than what was recorded over the 2005-2014 period. Employment growth in this occupation will be fuelled by the public’s greater awareness to social needs such attributable to the aging population, mental health, violence and others. However, this strong growth is expected to slow down over the projection period because demand for psychologists also depends on the level of governments spending, which will be restrained due to deficit reduction commitments made by many governments. Positions left vacant because of retirement are expected to account for nearly 55% of available jobs. The retirement rate is expected to be similar to the average of all occupations. With regard to labour supply, occupational movers are projected to account for the majority of job seekers. Most of them will come from being university professors and lecturers (NOC 4011) or post-secondary teaching and research assistants (NOC 4012) in the psychology field and will decide to start or resume practicing. School leavers and new immigrants are expected to represent about 45% of job seekers. This relatively low number is notably due to the fact that a doctoral degree in psychology is required to use the designation "psychologist" in many provinces. Moreover, the successful completion of the written Examination for Professional Practice in Psychology (EPPP) and the registration with the regulatory body required in all provinces is also expected to limit the number of individuals seeking employment in this occupational group.

There are also several occupations that are projected to face labour surplus conditions over the projection period. Table 5 shows that surplus conditions are projected to be more evenly distributed across high- (usually requiring post-secondary or more) and low-skill (usually requiring high school diploma or less) occupations than occupations with shortage conditions.

Table 5: Occupations Projected to be in Surplus Conditions by NOC Skill Type over the Period 2015-2024
Skill Types Occupations in Surplus
Business, Finance and Administration Occupations

0130* - Managers in communication (except broadcasting), 1226 - Conference and event planners, 1241 - Administrative assistants, 1415* - Personnel clerks, 1422* - Data entry clerks & Desktop publishing oper. and related occs., 1434* - Banking, insurance and other financial clerks & Collectors

Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations

2174 - Computer programmers and interactive media developers, 2242 - Electronic service techn. (household and business equipment), 2282* - User support techn. & Information systems testing technicians,

Health Occupations

3411 - Dental assistants

Occupations in Social Science, Education, Government Service and Religion

4161 - Natural and applied science policy researchers, consultants and program officers, 4216* - Other instructors & Other religious occs.

Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport

5131* - Producers, directors, choreographers and related occs. & Conductors, composers and arrangers, 5222* - Film/video camera operators; Graph. arts technicians; Broadcast technicians; Audio/video recording technicians; Other technical and co-ordinating occs. in motion pictures, broadcasting, arts & Support occs. in motion pictures, broadcasting, photography and the performing arts, 5230* - Announcers and other performers, n.e.c., 5241 - Graphic designers and illustrators, 5242 - Interior designers and interior decorators, 5250* - Athletes, coaches, referees and related occs.

Sales and Service Occupations

6322 – Cooks, 6332 – Bakers, 6342* - Tailors, dressmakers, furriers and milliners & Shoe repairers and shoemakers; Jewellers, jewellery and watch repairers and related occs.; Upholsterers; Funeral directors and embalmers, 6530* - Tourism and amusement services occs., 6551 - Customer services representatives - financial institutions, 6552 - Other customer and information services Representatives, 6562 - Estheticians, electrologists and related occs., 6623 - Other sales related occs., 6720* - Support occs. in accommodation, travel and amusement services

Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occ’s.

7272 – Cabinetmakers, 7291 - Roofers and shinglers, 7294 - Painters and decorators (except interior decorators), 7322 - Motor vehicle body repairers, 7380* - Printing press operators and other trades and related occs., n.e.c., 7610* - Trades helpers and labourers, 7620* - Public works and other labourers, n.e.c.

Occupations Unique to Primary Industry

8260* - Fishing vessel masters and fishermen/women, 8431 - General farm workers, 8440* - Other workers in fishing and trapping and hunting occs., 8611* - Harvesting labourers; Aquaculture and marine harvest labourers & Logging and forestry labourers, 8612 - Landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers, 8614 - Mine labourers & Oil and gas drilling, servicing and related labourers

Occupations Unique to Manufacturing and Utilities

9230* - Central control and processing operators in processing and manufacturers, 9432* - Pulp mill machine operators; Papermaking and finishing machine operators & Paper converting machine operators, 9441* - Textile fibre and yarn, hide and pelt processing machine operators and workers; Weavers, knitters and other fabric making occs.; Fabric, fur and leather cutters & Inspectors and graders, textile, fabric, fur and leather products manufacturing, 9446 - Industrial sewing machine operators, 9523 - Electronics assemblers, fabricators, inspectors and testers, 9616* - Labourers in textile processing & Other labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities

Note 1: Occupations with a star are groupings of 4-digit occupations (including 3-digit occupations which are considered as groups of 4-digit occupations).
Note 2: Occupations in bold are those where at least 50% of their workers were women in 2014.

Source: ESDC 2015 COPS Projections.

Some of the occupations facing surplus conditions are related to administrative and clerical work, such as office equipment operators, secretaries and clerks. For some time now, the nature of clerical and office work has been changing as tasks have become increasingly specialized. In addition, following the introduction of new technologies, the productivity in clerical and administrative occupations has increased, reducing the number of workers needed to do the same quantity of work.

Some computer related occupations are also in the list. Although employment growth is expected to be strong for these occupations, the relative contribution of retirements to job openings is anticipated to be below the national average as workers in these occupations are typically younger. Furthermore, the projections show a large pool of students registering in related fields of study, which will seek employment opportunities in these occupations. These occupations are also amongst the ones receiving the highest proportion of immigrants.

There are also some occupations specific to the primary, and processing, manufacturing and utilities sectors, where employment growth (expansion demand) is not projected to be as strong as in the rest of the economy. For instance, a large number of occupations in the processing and manufacturing industries are expecting to face limited or declining employment growth due to the intensification of international competition, especially from low-cost countries. Also, gains in productivity in those sectors will limit employment growth over the projection period.

Figure6 shows an exampleof the assessment of an occupation expected to face surplus conditions over the period 2015-2024.

Figure 6: Example of an occupation projected to face surplus conditions: Data entry clerks & Desktop publishing operators and related occupations (NOC 1422/1423)

Recent Labour Market Conditions:
Signs of surplusConditions

Projected Job Openings and Job Seekers:
Job Seekers > Job Openings
Labour Market Outlook:
Surplus Conditions

Note: Total job openings represent the summation of expansion demand (negative), retirement, death and emigration, while total job seekers represent the summation of school leavers, immigration and mobility & others (negative).

Bar figure showing the expected job openings and job seekers by components of the occupation Data entry clerks & Desktop publishing operators and related occupations (NOC 1422/1423), as an example of an occupation projected to face ssurplus conditions over the projection period. The data is shown on the link following this figure

Source: ESDC 2015 COPS Projections.

Text version of Figure6: Example of an occupation projected to face surplus conditions: Data entry clerks & Desktop publishing operators and related occupations (NOC 1422/1423)

Over the period 2012-2014, employment in this occupation declined at a faster rate than the average for all occupations. The unemployment rate slightly increased to 11.2%, well above the national average of 6.9% in 2014. The average hourly wage decreased by 1.1% over the projection period. These key labour market indicators suggest that the number of job seekers was greater than the number of job openings in recent years.

Figure 6 shows that over the period 2014-2025, for Data entry clerks & Desktop publishing operators and related occupations, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 9,900 while job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to total 12,100.

Based on the analysis of recent labour market conditions and the projections, it is expected that the labour surplus will continue over the period 2015-2024. All of the job openings are expected to result from replacement demand, specifically the need to replace individuals who will retire. As a result of technological advances, employment is expected to continue decreasing over the projection period. The retirement rate will be at par with the average of all occupations. With regard to labour supply, most job seekers will come directly from the school system. Immigration will also account for a sizeable number of job seekers over the projection period. However, because of the low wages and poor job prospects, many workers are expected to leave this occupation over the next few years, primarily for other clerical or administrative occupations. This will likely eliminate part, but not all of the labour surplus in this occupation.

Annex 1 - Projected Labour Market Conditions by Skill Level

Table 6: Projected labour market conditions for management occupations, 4-digit occupational groupings, 2015-2024
Management Occupations Shortage Balance Surplus Total
Number of Occupations 0 28 1 29
Employment in Base Year (2014) 0 1,612,800 12,200 1,625,000
Share of Total Employment in 2014 0% 9.1% 0.1% 9.2%

Source: ESDC 2015 COPS Projections.

Overall, the management skill level is projected to be in balance over the period 2015-2024 period. In 2014, this skill level, which includes 29 occupations, employed about 1.6 million workers (9.2% of total employment). Over the projection period, about 660,000 job openings and 622,000 job seekers are expected in this skill level. The main source of job seekers for these occupations is vertical mobility (58%) as experienced workers from other skill levels seek to fill vacant management positions.

The majority of the occupations (28 out of 29) within this skill level are expected to face balanced conditions over the projection period (Table 6). Those occupations employed about 1.6 million workers in 2014 (9.1% of total employment).

However, imbalances are projected for one occupation within this skill level. Indeed, over the period 2015-2024, only Managers in communication except broadcasting. Indeed, this occupation, accounting for 12,000 workers in 2014, is expected to face surplus conditions over the period 2015-2024. Employment in this occupation represented only 0.1% of total employment in 2014. No occupations are expected to face shortage conditions over the projection period.

Table 7: Projected labour market conditions for occupations usually requiring university education (Skill Level A), 4-digit occupational groupings, 2015-2024
Occupations usually requiring university education (Skill level A) Shortage Balance Surplus Total
Number of Occupations 15 41 3 59
Employment in Base Year (2014) 865,300 2,307,100 209,100 3,381,500
Share of Total Employment in 2014 4.9% 13.0% 1.2% 19.1%

Source: ESDC 2015 COPS Projections.

Overall, skill level A (occupations usually requiring university education) is projected to be in balance over the period 2015-2024. In 2014, this skill level, which includes 59 occupations, employed about 3.4 million workers (19% of total employment). Over the projection period, we expect about 1,318,000 job openings and 1,235,000 job seekers in this skill level. Despite an "apparent" excess demand, this difference is not sufficient to conclude to a broad shortage of workers in occupations usually requiring university education.

The majority of the occupations (41 out of 59) within this skill level are expected to face balanced conditions over the projection period (Table 7). Those occupations employed 2.3 million workers in 2014 (13.0% of total employment).

However, imbalances are projected for several occupations within this skill level. Over the period 2015-2024, fifteen occupations are projected to face shortage conditions. Employment in those occupations represented 865,000 workers in 2014 (4.9% of total employment).

On the other hand, three occupations in this skill level, accounting for 209,000 workers in 2014, are expected to face surplus conditions over the projection period. Employment in these occupations represented 1.2% of total employment in 2014.

Table 8: Projected labour market conditions for occupations usually requiring college education or apprenticeship training (Skill Level B), 4-digit occupational groupings, 2015-2024
Occupations usually requiring college education or apprenticeship training (Skill level B) Shortage Balance Surplus Total
Number of Occupations 41 86 20 120
Employment in Base Year (2014) 497,500 4,410,000 1,026,000 5,933,500
Share of Total Employment in 2014 2.8% 24.8% 5.8% 33.4%

Source: ESDC 2015 COPS Projections.

Overall, skill level B (occupations usually requiring college education or apprenticeship training) is projected to be in balance over the period 2015-2024. In 2014, this skill level, which includes 120 occupations, employed about 5.9 million workers (33.4% of total employment). Over the projection period, we expect similar number of job openings and job seekers (1.95 million) in this skill level.

The majority of the occupations (86 out of 118) within this skill level are expected to face balanced conditions over the projection period (Table 8). Those occupations employed 4.4 million workers in 2014 (24.8% of total employment).

However, imbalances are projected for several occupations within this skill level. Over the period 2015-2024, fourteen occupations are projected to face shortage conditions. Employment in those occupations represented 497,000 workers in 2014 (2.8% of total employment).

On the other hand, twenty occupations in this skill level, accounting for 1,026,000 workers in 2014, are expected to face surplus conditions over the projection period. Employment in these occupations represented 5.8% of total employment in 2014.

Table 9: Projected labour market conditions for occupations usually requiring high school education (Skill Level C), 4-digit occupational groupings, 2015-2024
Occupations usually requiring high school education (Skill Level C) Shortage Balance Surplus Total
Number of Occupations 1 49 14 64
Employment in Base Year (2014) 317,100 3,971,000 616,200 4,904,300
Share of Total Employment in 2014 1.8% 22.3% 3.5% 27,6%

Source: ESDC 2015 COPS Projections.

Overall, skill level C (occupations usually requiring secondary school) is projected to be in balance over the period 2015-2024. In 2014, this skill level, which includes 64 occupations, employed about 4.9 million workers (27.6% of total employment). Over the projection period, we expect similar number of job openings and job seekers (1.5 million) in this skill level.

The majority of the occupations (49 out of 64) within this skill level are expected to face balanced conditions over the projection period (Table 9). Those occupations employed about 4.0 million workers in 2012 (22.3% of total employment).

However, imbalances are projected for several occupations within this skill level. Over the period 2015-2024, one occupation is projected to face shortage conditions. Employment in this occupation represented 317,000 workers in 2014 (1.8% of total employment).

On the other hand, fourteen occupations in this skill level, accounting for about 616,000 workers in 2014, are expected to face surplus conditions over the projection period. Employment in these occupations represented 3.5% of total employment in 2014.

Table 10: Projected labour market conditions for Occupations usually requiring on-the-job training (Skill Level D), 4-digit occupational groupings, 2015-2024.
Occupation usually requiring on-the-job training (Skill Level D) Shortage Balance Surplus Total
Number of Occupations 0 12 8 20
Employment in Base Year (2014) 0 1,575,900 382,100 1,958,00
Share of Total Employment in 2014 0% 8.9% 2.1% 11.0%

Source: ESDC 2015 COPS Projections.

Overall, skill level D (occupations usually requiring on-the-job training) is projected to be in balance over the period 2015-2024. In 2014, this skill level, which includes 20 occupations, employed about 2.0 million workers (11.0% of total employment). Over the projection period, we expect about 526,000 job openings and about 555,000 job seekers in this skill level. Despite an "apparent" excess supply, this difference is not sufficient to conclude to a broad surplus of workers in occupations usually requiring on-the-job training.

Over the period 2015-2024, twelve out of 20 occupations in this skill level are expected to face balanced conditions (Table 10). Employment in these occupations represented 1.6 million workers (8.9% of total employment) in 2014.

No occupation in this skill level is projected to face shortage conditions.

On the other hand, eight occupations within this skill level are expected to face surplus conditions. Those occupations employed 382,000 workers in 2014 (2.1% of total employment).

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