Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Licensed practical nurses (3233)
- Occupational Outlook
- SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Licensed practical nurses (3233)
- Skill Type
- Health occupations
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require college or vocational education or apprenticeship training.
- Employment in 2021
- 71,600
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 39.9 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 63 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Over the 2019-2021 period, this occupational group recorded a slight decrease in employment and corresponding increase in the unemployment rate; however, the unemployment rate stood at less than 2.0% in 2021, well below the national average of 7.5%. Meanwhile, the number of job vacancies increased sharply over the period. As a result of the very low unemployment rate (and limited number of unemployed workers) and a high, and growing, number of job vacancies, there was consistently less than one unemployed worker per job vacancy, limiting the ability of employers to fill vacancies. The difficult working environment created by the COVID-19 pandemic led to the burnout of many medical professionals. Moreover, the rapid spread of COVID-19 left many health care practitioners out sick or in isolation. Hence, the analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill all job openings in this occupational group.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Licensed practical nurses are expected to total 27,800, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 26,300.
As job openings and job seekers are projected to be relatively similar over the 2022-2031 period, it is expected that the shortage between labour supply and demand seen in recent years will continue over the projection period. Job openings are projected to arise from both employment growth and retirements. Similar to most occupations in the health sector, the aging population will demand more health care workers, including licensed practical nurses. Indeed, the increase in the number of seniors, coupled with a longer life expectancy, should lead to a higher demand for hospital centers for long-term care. In addition, the importance of auxiliary nurses in providing home care services is expected to also contribute to this growth. As a result, employment is expected to grow above the average for all occupations. Additionally, 39% of the job openings are projected to result from the need to replace people who retire. Pressures arising from these departures are anticipated to be in line with the national average. Workers in this occupational group are generally younger than in other occupations but tend to retire at an earlier age in their career.
With regard to labour supply, school leavers are projected to account for the vast majority of job seekers, while 23% are expected to be new immigrants. To be allowed to practice in this occupational group, workers need to be registered with a provincial or territorial regulatory body and successfully complete the national examination, imposing barriers to new job seekers. As a result of the barriers to entry and difficult working conditions (night and weekend shifts, part-time work, and physical working conditions, among others), turnover in the occupation will continue to be high, resulting in substantial negative net mobility (representing about 30% of job seekers).
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 13,900 | 50% |
| Retirements: | 10,800 | 39% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 1,500 | 5% |
| Emigration: | 1,600 | 6% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 27,800 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 31,400 | 119% |
| Immigration: | 9,600 | 37% |
| Other: | -14,800 | -56% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 26,300 | 100% |