Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Psychologists (4151)
- Occupational Outlook
- SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Psychologists (4151)
- Skill Type
- Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require university education.
- Employment in 2021
- 27,600
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 46.3 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 65 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Over the 2019-2021 period, employment in this occupational group was significantly above the average for all occupations. The unemployment rate remained very low and stood slightly above 1.0% in 2021, well below the national average of 7.5%. As a result of the very low unemployment rate (and limited number of unemployed workers) and a high, and growing, number of job vacancies, there was consistently less than one unemployed worker per job vacancy, limiting the ability of employers to fill vacancies. In addition, two-thirds of vacancies remained unfilled after 90 days, substantially higher than the national average of less than one-third. However, due to the high prevalence of self-employment in this occupational group, this it to be taken with caution as the self-employed are not captured by the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey or as unemployed by the Labour Force Survey. The increasing awareness of mental health treatments has increased the demand for psychologists over recent years. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected the mental health of adults and children, further increasing the need for these professionals. Hence, analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill all job openings in this occupational group.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Psychologists are expected to total 18,800, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 18,400.
As job openings and job seekers are projected to be relatively similar over the 2022-2031 period, it is expected that the shortage between labour supply and demand seen in recent years will continue over the projection period. Job openings are projected to arise from both expansion demand and retirements. Employment growth is expected to be much stronger than the average for all occupations, fueled by the population’s greater awareness of social issues such as population aging, mental health, learning issues/disabilities, and violence; however, this growth could potentially be limited by public spending constraints. Retirements are expected to account for just over 40% of job openings. The retirement rate is expected to be stronger than the average for all occupations. Psychologists are generally substantially older than workers in other occupations but tend to retire around the same age.
With regard to labour supply, school leavers are projected to account for the majority of job seekers. Psychologists are a regulated occupation and workers require a doctorate degree in order to practice in most Canadian provinces. Without a PhD degree, workers must work in closely related occupations for some years before being granted the right to practice as a psychologist. As a result, positive mobility is projected to account for nearly 40% of job seekers. The main sources of this positive mobility will be university professors and lecturers, post-secondary teaching and research assistants, and social policy researchers in the psychology field, in addition to educational counsellors. Finally, new immigrants are expected to account for less than 10% of job seekers.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 9,300 | 49% |
| Retirements: | 7,600 | 40% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 1,200 | 6% |
| Emigration: | 700 | 4% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 18,800 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 10,500 | 57% |
| Immigration: | 1,500 | 8% |
| Other: | 6,400 | 35% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 18,400 | 100% |