Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations (4412)
- Occupational Outlook
- SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations (4412)
- Skill Type
- Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require secondary school and/or occupation-specific training.
- Employment in 2021
- 67,100
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 46.6 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 64 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Over the 2019-2021 period, employment in this occupational group declined, while its unemployment rate rose at a mirroring pace with the average of all occupations. However, the number of job vacancies increased sharply in 2020 and 2021, almost doubling the levels seen in 2018 and 2019, largely outpacing the growth in the number of jobless people in this occupation, resulting in having less than one unemployed worker to fill the existing job vacancies in 2021. This also translated into a jump in the job vacancy rate to reach levels of almost 12% in 2021, which was almost 3 times higher than the all-occupations average. Finally, about 40% of vacancies were not filled in the first 90 days, a proportion that was substantially higher than the all-occupations average. Indeed, the demand for home support workers increased during the pandemic as employers attempted to limit the number of work locations per worker while maintaining the workload in order to minimize the risk of spreading the virus in many jurisdictions in Canada. Hence, analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was sufficient to fill the job openings in this occupational group.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Home support workers, housekeepers and related occupations are expected to total 34,500, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 33,800.
As job openings and job seekers are projected to be relatively similar over the 2022-2031 period, the labour shortage conditions seen in recent years are expected to continue over the projection period. The majority of job openings are projected to arise from retirements. The retirement rate is projected to be above the average for all occupations as workers are generally older than those in other occupations. Employment growth is expected to be similar to the average for all occupations, accounting for 17% of the job openings. Structural factors such as population ageing and the need to send hospital patients home to reduce health expenses fueled the demand for home care workers over the last decade. Over the projection period, employment growth is anticipated to be back in line with the demand for home support services as most of the ambulatory care shift has been completed.
With regard to labour supply, only about 43% of job seekers are projected to come directly from the school system (compared to approximately 70% on average). Low wages and the nature of the tasks make this occupational group relatively unpopular among school leavers. However, a significant number of new immigrants are expected to search for employment in this occupational group. This occupation is very popular among immigrants because of the low requirements, which allow them to obtain Canadian labour market experience. Finally, about one in five workers will continue the historical trend of seeking employment opportunities in other occupations, notably nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates and other assisting occupations in support of health services.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 5,800 | 17% |
| Retirements: | 24,500 | 71% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 2,700 | 8% |
| Emigration: | 1,500 | 4% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 34,500 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 14,500 | 43% |
| Immigration: | 30,700 | 91% |
| Other: | -11,400 | -34% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 33,800 | 100% |