Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics (7311)
- Occupational Outlook
- SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics (7311)
- Skill Type
- Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require college or vocational education or apprenticeship training.
- Employment in 2021
- 94,700
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 43.9 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 63 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Over the 2019-2021 period, employment in this occupational group increased. Employment fell in 2020 as pandemic related restrictions impacted the construction and manufacturing sectors, but it rebounded in 2021, recovering all the employment losses and adding some more. This was reflected in the unemployment rate, which increased to its highest level since the 2009 recession, then fell in 2021 to a level below the national average. The number of job vacancies remained stable over the 2019-2020 period, but increased significantly in 2021. This resulted in an increase in the job vacancy rate in 2021. Finally, with the increase in job vacancies, the number of unemployed workers to fill vacancies fell in 2021, below the national average. Overall, analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the demand exceeded substantially the supply in this occupational group over the 2019-2021 period. For this occupational group, this shortage was largely due rapid rising of labour demand as a result of the re-opening of hard-to-distance businesses.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics are expected to total 35,900, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 34,000.
Although the labour shortage conditions seen in recent years were expected to be temporary, the projected number of job seekers is not expected to be large enough to return this occupation to balance conditions over the projection period. As a result, the shortage conditions will become more structural, continuing over the 2022-2031 period. Retirements are expected to represent about 67% of job openings, a proportion that is higher than the average of all occupations (about 50% of job openings). Workers in this occupational group are generally older than the average and tend to retire at a similar age than those in other occupations, resulting in a retirement rate that is slightly higher than the average rate for all occupations. Employment growth is projected to be lower than the national average. As a result, job creation will represent about 20% of openings, a proportion that is below the occupations average (about 37% of openings). Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics are spread around in several industries, but mostly in construction and manufacturing. On the positive side, outlook for non-residential investment is expected to help supporting growth in construction activity over the projection period, driven by renewed growth in investment related to engineering structures and faster growth in investment related to the construction of non-residential buildings. Canadian businesses are expected to replace or upgrade their existing capital stock in response to the development of new productivity-enhancing technologies and demographic pressures on labour supply. Those factors are projected to result in a sharp pick-up in M&E investment in Canada over the next decade, boosting domestic demand for industrial and commercial machinery. The electric power (utilities), transportation and mining industries are also expected to be important contributors to engineering construction due to growing demand for non-emitting sources of energy, public transit systems and critical minerals (used to produce many of the technologies needed for clean energy). Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are expected to lead to significant investment to develop cleaner power generation and production techniques, supporting the industry’s sales of more sophisticated machinery and equipment in Canada and abroad. However, employment growth will be limited by technological innovations, particularly in advanced robotics, are expected to lead to further increases in the automation of the production process.
With regard to labour supply, school leavers will be the main source of job seekers over the projection period, notably through apprenticeship opportunities. New immigrants are not expected to represent a large part of potential labour supply, accounting for only 9% of job seekers. Workers from other occupations, especially other mechanics, are also expected to continue representing an important source of labour supply in this occupational group. The competitive wages in this occupational group in comparison to other trades and mechanics are attractive to skilled and experienced workers from other occupations, especially other mechanics. However, this is not projected to be large enough to return this occupation to balance conditions over the projection period.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 7,000 | 19% |
| Retirements: | 24,000 | 67% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 2,800 | 8% |
| Emigration: | 2,000 | 6% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 35,900 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 22,500 | 66% |
| Immigration: | 3,400 | 10% |
| Other: | 8,100 | 24% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 34,000 | 100% |