Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Practitioners of natural healing; Massage therapists & Other technical occupations in therapy and assessment (3232)
- Occupational Outlook
- SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Practitioners of natural healing (3232)
- Massage therapists (3236)
- Other technical occupations in therapy and assessment (3237)
- Skill Type
- Health occupations
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require college or vocational education or apprenticeship training.
- Employment in 2021
- 66,800
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 42.2 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 63 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Over the 2019-2021 period, employment in this occupational group increased at a faster pace than the average for all occupations. The unemployment rate fell to less than 3.0% in 2021, well below the national average of 7.5%. The difficult working environment created by the COVID-19 pandemic led to the burnout of many medical professionals. Moreover, the rapid spread of COVID-19 left many health care practitioners out sick or in isolation. Despite this, and the fact that the number of unemployed workers per job vacancy was well below the average of all occupations, the steady employment growth suggests that a lack of available workers did not restrict hiring in this occupation. Hence, the analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was sufficient to fill all job openings in this occupational group.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Practitioners of natural healing; Massage therapists & Other technical occupations in therapy and assessment are expected to total 36,000, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 28,300.
Although this occupational group has had a balanced market in recent years, projected job openings are substantially higher than projected job seekers, creating a shortage of workers over the 2022-2031 period. Job openings are projected to arise mostly from employment growth. The increase in the demand for massage therapists is expected to continue, mostly attributable to a wider knowledge of their benefits, as well as to the increasing coverage by insurance plans. In addition, population aging is expected to increase the demand for physical rehabilitation services following surgeries and accidents that older people are prone to. As a result, employment growth for this occupational group is expected to be above the average for all occupations. Additionally, almost 40% of the job openings are projected to result from retirements. Pressures from these departures are expected to be in line with the national average, as workers in this occupational group have a similar age structure to that of other occupations.
With regard to labour supply, school leavers are projected to account for the majority of job seekers. Moreover, a sizeable number of the new labour supply is expected to come from new immigrants and workers from other occupations. Nevertheless, job seekers are not expected to meet the projected job openings.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 19,000 | 53% |
| Retirements: | 13,100 | 36% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 2,200 | 6% |
| Emigration: | 1,600 | 4% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 36,000 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 22,700 | 80% |
| Immigration: | 5,700 | 20% |
| Other: | -200 | -1% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 28,300 | 100% |