Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Educational counsellors (4033)
- Occupational Outlook
- SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
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- Educational counsellors (4033)
- Skill Type
- Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require university education.
- Employment in 2021
- 34,300
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 46.2 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 61 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Over the 2019-2021 period, employment growth in this occupational group was significantly above the average for all occupations. The unemployment rate declined to less than 4.0% in 2021, well below the national average of 7.5%. Although the number of unemployed workers per job vacancy was below the average for all occupations, the strong employment growth suggests that a lack of available workers did not restrict hiring in this occupation. Indeed, the job vacancy rate (unmet demand) was half the national rate. Hence, analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was sufficient to fill all job openings in this occupational group.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Educational counsellors are expected to total 17,300, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 12,700.
2021, well below the national average of 7.5%. Although the number of unemployed workers per job vacancy was below the average for all occupations, the strong employment growth suggests that a lack of available workers did not restrict hiring in this occupation. Indeed, the job vacancy rate (unmet demand) was half the national rate. Hence, analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was sufficient to fill all job openings in this occupational group. Although this occupational group has had a balanced market in recent years, projected job openings are substantially higher than projected job seekers, creating a shortage of workers over the 2022-2031 period. Job openings are projected to arise mainly from retirements, accounting for nearly two-thirds of job openings. Pressures arising from these departures are anticipated to be substantially above the national average as workers in this occupational group tend to be older and retire at an earlier age than in other occupations. Employment growth is expected to be slightly above the average for all occupations, which represents, nevertheless, weaker growth than over the 2009-2018 period. Over the last decade, this occupational group benefited from the upswing in the demand for guidance counselling arising from the constantly evolving labour market and the complexity of the educational system. Over the projection period, this demand for educational counsellors is expected to largely be sustained; however, it will be limited by the fact that some provincial governments face budget constraints. Furthermore, many institutions often opt to hire staff that are more directly related to the needs of students with difficulties (ex. social workers, educational psychologists, psychoeducators, special education teachers, or teacher support workers).
With regard to labour supply, school leavers are projected to account for the majority of job seekers. New immigrants are expected to represent less than 10% of potential workers for this occupational group, which is not popular among newcomers due to the high requirements (a master's degree in counselling psychology or a related field as well as knowledge of the Canadian labour market and school system is required). Finally, a number of workers are expected to join this occupational group from other occupations in the education sector, notably secondary school teachers.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 6,000 | 35% |
| Retirements: | 9,700 | 56% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 1,000 | 6% |
| Emigration: | 600 | 3% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 17,300 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 10,900 | 86% |
| Immigration: | 1,200 | 9% |
| Other: | 700 | 6% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 12,700 | 100% |