Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2019-2028)

The current COPS projections were completed in 2019, well before the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak that resulted in exceptional and abrupt economic and labour market disruptions in Canada as well as abroad. However, the focus of the COPS projections is on long-term trends in occupational labour markets, not on short-term developments. At the moment, these long-term trends are not expected to be affected markedly by the COVID-19 outbreak as its impacts are generally foreseen to be temporary.

Note: The projections were developed for 293 occupational groupings that cover the entire workforce, using the 2016 National Occupational Classification (NOC). For additional information on these groupings, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition. For more information about the methodology used to assess each occupation, please click here.

Search Result : Firefighters & Non-commissioned ranks of the Canadian Armed Forces (4312)

Occupational Outlook
BALANCE: Labour demand and labour supply are expected to be broadly in line for this occupation group over the 2019-2028 period at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
Occupations in this Group
  • Firefighters (4312)
  • Non-commissioned ranks of the Canadian Armed Forces (4313)
Skill Type
Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services
Skill Level
Occupations usually require college or vocational education or apprenticeship training.
Employment in 2018
32,400
Median Age of workers in 2018
40.6 years old
Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2018
58 years old

In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2019-2028) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2019-2028. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions.

The analysis of key labour market indicators such as job vacancies and employment growth as well as the unemployment rate suggests that the number of job seekers was sufficient to fill the job openings in this occupational group over the 2016-2018 period.

Over the period 2019-2028, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Firefighters & Non-commissioned ranks of the Canadian Armed Forces are expected to total 12,100, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 12,100 .

As job openings and job seekers are projected to be at relatively similar levels over the 2019-2028 period, the balance between labour supply and demand seen in recent years is expected to continue over the projection period.

Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2019-2028

This table contains data related to Projected Job Openings.
Level Share
Expansion Demand: 3,200 26%
Retirements: 7,500 62%
Other Replacement Demand: 700 6%
Emigration: 700 6%
Projected Job Openings: 12,100 100%
This table contains data related to Projected Job Seekers.
Level Share
School Leavers: 8,300 69%
Immigration: 400 3%
Other: 3,400 28%
Projected Job Seekers: 12,100 100%
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