Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2017-2026)

Note: The projections were developed for 292 occupational groupings that cover the entire workforce, using the 2016 National Occupational Classification (NOC). For additional information on these groupings, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.  For more information about the methodology used to assess each occupation, please click here.

Search Result : Theatre, fashion, exhibit and other creative designers & Artisans and craftspersons; Patternmakers - textile, leather and fur products (5243)

Occupational Outlook
BALANCE: Labour demand and labour supply are expected to be broadly in line for this occupation group over the 2017-2026 period at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
Occupations in this Group
  • Theatre, fashion, exhibit and other creative designers (5243)
  • Artisans and craftspersons (5244)
  • Patternmakers - textile, leather and fur products (5245)
Skill Type
Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport
Skill Level
Occupations usually require college or vocational education or apprenticeship training.
Employment in 2016
21,000
Median Age of workers in 2016
43.2 years old
Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2016
66 years old

In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2017-2026) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2017-2026. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions.

Over the 2014-2016 period, employment in this occupational group remained mostly stable. The unemployment rate increased sharply to 11.6% in 2016, a rate well above the national average of 7.0%. However, this increase was not observed in the employment insurance claims. Moreover, a significant proportion of workers in this occupation are self-employed, which limits the value of the unemployment rate as a reliable indicator of labour market conditions for this occupation. For its part, the average hourly wage growth during this period was slightly higher than the average for all occupations. Hence, the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was sufficient to fill the job openings in this occupational group over the 2014-2016 period.

For Theatre, fashion, exhibit and other creative designers & Artisans and craftspersons; Patternmakers - textile, leather and fur products, over the period 2017-2026, new job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 6,100, while 6,000 new job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill them.

As job openings and job seekers are projected to be at relatively similar levels over the 2017-2026 period, it is expected that the balance between labour supply and demand seen in recent years will continue over the projection period. Over this period, the majority of job openings are projected to arise from retirements. Nevertheless, the retirement rate is projected to be under the average for all occupations, mainly because workers are typically younger than in other occupations and tend to retire later in their career. Employment growth is expected to be much lower than the average for all occupations, which still represents an improvement over the job losses over the 2007-2016 period. This occupational group encompasses very different occupations, and therefore, a number of factors explain the losses over the last decade. Among these reasons are the elimination of tariffs and quotas on clothing imports and the high value of the Canadian dollar, the decline in popularity of theater due to strong competition in the entertainment industry and the change in consumers' taste in arts and crafts products. Over the 2017-2026 period, the outlook for this group is expected to be slightly better due to the lower value of the Canadian dollar, which will favor local clothing production and stimulate sales of arts and crafts products, notably through an increase in foreign tourism. Additionally, there was a significant restructuring of the clothing industry towards a new clothing design niche, as well as towards more high-end garments, which should help encourage job creation for some of these occupations. With regard to labour supply, school leavers are expected to account for the majority of job seekers. The number of school leavers alone is projected to exceed total job openings. Still, more than 40% of those searching for a job will be immigrants. This occupational group is very popular among newcomers largely due to the low employment requirements for a number of positions. However, a significant number of workers are expected to leave this group to work in other occupations. For instance, many will accept a promotion and become retail and wholesale trade supervisors or managers.

Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2017-2026

This table contains data related to Projected Job Openings.
Level Share
Expansion Demand: 700 11%
Retirements: 4,300 70%
Other Replacement Demand: 700 11%
Emigration: 400 7%
Projected Job Openings: 6,100 100%
This table contains data related to Projected Job Seekers.
Level Share
School Leavers: 6,200 103%
Immigration: 2,700 45%
Other: -2,800 -47%
Projected Job Seekers: 6,000 100%
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