Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2017-2026)

Note: The projections were developed for 292 occupational groupings that cover the entire workforce, using the 2016 National Occupational Classification (NOC). For additional information on these groupings, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.  For more information about the methodology used to assess each occupation, please click here.

Search Result : Payroll administrators (1432)

Occupational Outlook
BALANCE: Labour demand and labour supply are expected to be broadly in line for this occupation group over the 2017-2026 period at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
Occupations in this Group
  • Payroll administrators (1432)
Skill Type
Business, finance and administration occupations
Skill Level
Occupations usually require secondary school and/or occupation-specific training.
Employment in 2016
39,800
Median Age of workers in 2016
44.1 years old
Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2016
62 years old

In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2017-2026) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2017-2026. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions.

Over the 2014-2016 period, this occupational group experienced a decrease in employment. The unemployment rate stayed stable at 4.5% in 2016, compared to the national average of 7.0%. The average hourly wage of this occupational group also remained stable. Hence, despite an employment decline over the recent years, the analysis of labour market indicators suggested that the number of job seekers was sufficient to fill the job openings in this occupational group over the 2014-2016 period.

For Payroll administrators, over the period 2017-2026, new job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 17,700, while 17,900 new job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill them.

As job openings and job seekers are projected to be at relatively similar levels over the 2017-2026 period, the balance between labour supply and demand seen in recent years is expected to continue over the projection period. The majority of job openings are projected to arise from retirements. The retirement rate for this occupation is expected to be high over the projection period, exceeding the average retirement rate for all occupations because these workers tend to be older than the average for all occupations and to retire younger. Employment growth is expected to be similar to the national average, an improvement relative to the job losses recorded over the 2007-2016 period. Indeed, this is a rather specialized clerical position. New technologies such as automated time clocks for workers simplify data entry while others such as direct deposit reduce the amount of work required to process payroll checks. But these technologies are already being used in many businesses, thus allowing for limited growth. With regard to labour supply, the majority of job seekers in the 2017-2026 period are projected to be school leavers. Workers from other occupations, for instance accounting clerks, are projected to account for about 30% of new labour supply over this period.

Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2017-2026

This table contains data related to Projected Job Openings.
Level Share
Expansion Demand: 4,000 23%
Retirements: 12,100 68%
Other Replacement Demand: 1,000 6%
Emigration: 700 4%
Projected Job Openings: 17,700 100%
This table contains data related to Projected Job Seekers.
Level Share
School Leavers: 9,800 55%
Immigration: 2,000 11%
Other: 6,100 34%
Projected Job Seekers: 17,900 100%
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