Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Computer programmers and interactive media developers (2174)
- Occupational Outlook
- SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Computer programmers and interactive media developers (2174)
- Skill Type
- Natural and applied sciences and related occupations
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require university education.
- Employment in 2021
- 221,300
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 37.8 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 62 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Over the 2019-2021 period, employment in this occupational group increased at a strong pace, substantially higher than the average of all occupations. The unemployment rate fell, reaching historical low in 2021, and remaining well below the national average during this period. Additionally, the number of job vacancy increased significantly, slightly surpassing the strong increase in employment resulting in an increase in the vacancy rate in 2021. The number of unemployed per job vacancy fell below 1 at the end of the period. Employment in this occupation has been trending up over the past decade largely driven by technological progress. During the pandemic years of 2020-2021, this occupation recorded substantial additional gains, as many businesses adopted telework policies, and consumption leaned stronger towards e-commerce, supporting demand for IT services. Overall, the analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the demand exceeded substantially the supply in this occupational group over the 2019-2021 period.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Computer programmers and interactive media developers are expected to total 80,500, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 89,900.
This gap is not considered to be statistically significant, which means that the number of job openings and job seekers are projected to be relatively similar over the 2022-2031 period. As such, the labour shortage conditions seen in recent years will not clear and are expected to persist over the projection period. Employment is projected to grow at a higher rate than the national average. As a result, job creation will represent about 57% of all openings, a proportion that is above the average of all occupations (about 37% of openings). Most of these workers are employed in the computer systems design and related services industry; finance, insurance, real estate, and leasing services; and telecommunications, information, and culture services industries. Demand for workers in this occupation will continue to be driven by the need for businesses and governments to continually upgrade their ICT systems in order to keep up with the most recent technologies and remain competitive. Indeed, computer services benefit from the constant development of innovative computer and communications products that are designed and serviced by the industry. Cloud-based platforms, the Internet of Things (IoT), big data and open-source software continue to gain in popularity, while the implementation of 5G networks and further developments in advanced manufacturing, autonomous transport, virtual and augmented reality, artificial intelligence, machine learning, language processing and biometric security represent a multitude of growth opportunities. Consumers and businesses own multiple electronic devices and are increasingly asking for compatibility, transferability, and access to their content from any of those devices. Retirements will also account for a relatively low proportion of job openings (about 32%). Most workers in this occupational group are younger than average but retire at a similar age than workers in other occupations. Therefore, the share of workers who are retiring and who will need to be replaced is expected to be lower than the average.
Regarding labour supply, given the important level of enrolment in post-secondary programs, the number of school leavers in computer science is projected to continue to be high since this field of study remains attractive to young people. About three quarters of job seekers are expected to come from the school system, mostly from bachelor graduates, but also from the Master and PhD levels. The projected number of school leavers alone is projected to be larger than the number of total job openings, given the popularity of these programs. Immigration will account for one quarter of job seekers. The skills typically required in this occupation are usually standard worldwide and not unique to the Canadian labour market. As a result, there are lower barriers for immigrants to become computer programmers and interactive media developers. In addition, foreigners seeking employment in this occupational group from countries that have a free trade agreement with a labour component with Canada could be eligible to work in Canada, making it easier for them to enter and permanently remain in the country. Given the relatively important supply of workers and that the skills acquired in this occupation can be complemented by other competencies, a significant number of workers are expected to leave this occupation for other related occupations, in particular to seek jobs as a computer and information systems managers (0213), as well as information systems analysts and consultants (NOC 2171). This negative mobility will be sufficient to offset the large number of school leavers and immigrants, relatively levelling the projected flows of job openings and seekers over the projected period and allowing the recent situation of labour shortage to persist over the long run.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 45,900 | 57% |
| Retirements: | 25,400 | 32% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 4,000 | 5% |
| Emigration: | 5,200 | 6% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 80,500 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 93,800 | 104% |
| Immigration: | 32,900 | 37% |
| Other: | -36,900 | -41% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 89,900 | 100% |