Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Technical occupations in architecture, drafting, surveying, geomatics (2250)
- Occupational Outlook
- SURPLUS: This occupational group is expected to face labour surplus conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Architectural technologists and technicians (2251)
- Industrial designers (2252)
- Drafting technologists and technicians (2253)
- Land survey technologists and technicians (2254)
- Technical occupations in geomatics and meteorology (2255)
- Skill Type
- Natural and applied sciences and related occupations
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require college or vocational education or apprenticeship training.
- Employment in 2021
- 64,100
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 41.6 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 69 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Employment in this occupational group declined significantly from the historical peak reached in 2018. However, the unemployment rate did not follow the same variation, it increased in 2019 and 2020, before falling back in 2021, suggesting that a number of people looking for work likely left this occupation. In addition, the unemployment rate remained above pre-pandemic level and its own historical norms, but below the national average. Despite this, the number of job vacancies increased substantially, especially in 2021, but the number of unemployed per job vacancy remained relatively stable, only slightly below the national average. Overall, the analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the supply was sufficient to fill the demand in this occupational group over the 2019-2021 period.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Technical occupations in architecture, drafting, surveying, geomatics are expected to total 12,500, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 21,600.
Although this occupational group has had a balanced market in recent years, projected job seekers are expected to be substantially higher than job openings, creating a surplus of workers over the 2022-2031 period. The majority of job openings are projected to arise from retirements. They are expected to account for about 52% of total job openings, a proportion that is similar to the average of all occupations. However, the retirement rate is expected to be significantly lower than the average of all occupations, as these workers, have a similar age profile than the national Average, but tend to retire later in their career. Employment is expected to grow at a relatively slow pace, well below the national average over the projection period. These technicians assist and support works of professional architects, engineers, and industrial designers, and the demand for their work is linked with activities in the construction and manufacturing sectors, as many of them are clients of their services. The demand for these types of services is expected to be contained by the small decline anticipated in residential investment (including new home construction) over the projection period, as a result of the surge in housing prices and higher mortgage rates in the short term, and the downward trend in household formation resulting from population aging in the longer term. That said, increasing urban population should help support demand for new residential buildings and mixed-use properties containing retail, office and residential components, which would require the expertise of architects to develop. Business investment in engineering structures is expected to straighten, partly supported by major projects in the electric power (utilities), transportation and mining industries in response to growing demand for non-emitting sources of energy, public transit systems and critical minerals (used in the production of clean energy).
Regarding labour supply, given the important level of enrolment in post-secondary programs, the number of school leavers is expected to account for about two-thirds job seekers, mostly from college graduates, but also from bachelor’s degree graduates. The projected number of school leavers alone is projected to be larger than the number of total job openings, given the popularity of these programs. A considerable number of immigrants are expected to continue entering this occupational group, accounting for about one third of job seekers. Foreigners in this occupational group coming from countries with a free trade agreement with a labour component with Canada might be eligible to work in Canada, simplifying their entry and permanency in the country. Given the relatively important supply of workers and following historical patterns, a significant number of workers are expected to leave this occupation for other related occupations, in particular to seek jobs as supervisors, mineral and metal processing & supervisors, petroleum, gas ad chemical processing and utilities (NOC 9211/9212), as well as civil engineering technologists and technicians (NOC 2231). However, his negative mobility will not be sufficient to offset the large number of projected school leavers and immigrants, resulting in a situation of labour surplus over the projected period.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 2,800 | 22% |
| Retirements: | 6,500 | 52% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 1,800 | 14% |
| Emigration: | 1,400 | 11% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 12,500 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 20,200 | 94% |
| Immigration: | 9,600 | 44% |
| Other: | -8,200 | -38% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 21,600 | 100% |