Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Railway carmen/women & Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors (7314)
- Occupational Outlook
- SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Railway carmen/women (7314)
- Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors (7315)
- Skill Type
- Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require college or vocational education or apprenticeship training.
- Employment in 2021
- 21,900
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 42.2 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 63 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Over the 2019-2021 period, employment in this occupational group increased significantly. The vast majority of workers in this occupational grouping are working as aircraft mechanics and inspectors. Employment fell in 2020 as the aerospace transportation industry was severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic as public health measures drastically reduced the volume of air travel passengers. Airlines faced difficult budgetary circumstances and many canceled orders for new aircraft to help balance their books. In addition, the grounding of passenger planes reduced the need for maintenance, repairs and aircraft parts, although the surge of e-commerce (air cargo) helped moderate the decline in this sub-segment. Employment rebounded in 2021, recovering all the employment losses and recording additional gains. As a result, the unemployment rate increased substantially in 2020, but only fell slightly in 2021, remaining substantially above its pre-pandemic level, and above the national average. The number of job vacancies fell steadily over the period, and with the employment gains recorded in 2021, the job vacancy rate reached its lowest level since 2016, and below the average for all occupations, but largely concentrated on the first half of 2021. Finally, all this resulted in a substantial increase in the number of unemployed workers to fill vacancies in the first half of 2021, but it sharply declined during the second half to reach levels that were comparable of even below the national average. Overall, analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the supply was sufficient to fill the demand in this occupational group over the 2019-2021 period.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Railway carmen/women & Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors are expected to total 8,200, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 5,800.
Although this occupational group has had a balanced market in recent years, projected job openings are expected to be substantially higher to job seekers, creating a shortage of workers over the 2022-2031 period. Retirements are expected to represent about 57% of job openings, a proportion that is slightly higher than the average of all occupations (about 50% of job openings). Workers in this occupational group are about the same age than the average and tend to retire at a similar age than those in other occupations, resulting in a retirement rate that is similar to the average rate for all occupations. Employment growth is projected to be about the same than the national average. As a result, job creation will represent about 28% of openings, a proportion that is below the all-occupations average (about 37% of openings). Over the projection period, the air transportation equipment industry is expected to strengthen markedly, as the industry gradually recovers from the pandemic and global air travel continues to expand. The volume of air travel passengers is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels in the early years of the projection period, leading to a pickup in orders for new aircraft and renewed growth in output. In the longer term, the industry will benefit from additional demand for air travel. The outlook for the fabrication of railroad equipment also looks quite optimistic as the transportation of oil by train is increasing at a rapid pace in North America due to the lack of pipeline capacity. Furthermore, changing demographics, increased road congestion and environmental concerns are all expected to foster global demand for transit systems, including rail and subway. However, despite the positive outlook, employment growth will be limited by the expectation that firms will boost investment in productivity enhancing machinery and equipment to keep pace with growing demand and a scarcity of skilled labour, particularly in aerospace.
With regard to labour supply, over the projection period school leavers will be the main source of job seekers, notably through apprenticeship opportunities. New immigrants are expected to represent a somewhat limited part of potential labour supply, accounting for 16% of job seekers. Workers from other occupations, especially other mechanics, are also expected to continue representing a source of labour supply in this occupational group. However, a number of workers, are projected to look for newer opportunities in other occupations, for example as engineer inspectors and regulatory officers (NOC 2262).
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 2,300 | 28% |
| Retirements: | 4,700 | 57% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 700 | 9% |
| Emigration: | 500 | 6% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 8,200 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 7,300 | 126% |
| Immigration: | 1,400 | 24% |
| Other: | -2,800 | -48% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 5,800 | 100% |