Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Welders and related machine operators (7237)
- Occupational Outlook
- SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Welders and related machine operators (7237)
- Skill Type
- Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require college or vocational education or apprenticeship training.
- Employment in 2021
- 79,600
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 39.8 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 64 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Over the 2019-2021 period, employment in this occupational group declined, recording employment losses in 2020 and in 2021. However, the additional job losses in 2021 seem to be a result of lack of labour. In fact, after peaking in 2020 as a result of the restriction imposed by the government as a reaction to the pandemic, the number of jobless workers fell substantially in 2021, despite the losses in employment, leading to a decline in the occupation’s unemployment rate to its lowest historical point. In addition, demand has increased, as evidenced by the surge in job vacancies, which almost doubled in 2021. Indeed, the job vacancy rate reached its highest level in 2021, significantly higher than the average for all occupations. In addition, close to half of vacancies remained unfilled after 90 days, compared to the all-occupations average of one third. Finally, all this resulted in having a substantially lower number of unemployed workers to fill vacancies, nearing the 1 ratio mark. Overall, analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job openings exceeded substantially the number of job seekers in this occupational group over the 2019-2021 period.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Welders and related machine operators are expected to total 17,700, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 16,800.
This gap is not considered statistically significant, which means that the number of job openings and job seekers are projected to be relatively similar over the 2022-2031 period. As such, the labour shortage conditions seen in recent years will not clear and are expected to persist over the projection period. Retirements are projected to account for the vast majority of the job openings over the projection period. Retirements are expected to represent about 80% of these job openings, a proportion that is significantly higher than the average of all occupations (about 50% of job openings). Workers in this occupational group are generally younger than average and tend to retire at a similar age than those in other occupations, resulting in a retirement rate that is comparable the average rate for all occupations. The reason why retirement is expected the account for the majority of total job openings is because employment levels are expected to basically remain unchanged over the projection period. Part of those workers are concentrated in the repair and maintenance industry, which is expected to post strong gains in productivity, as business in the sector are very likely to adopt innovative equipment and automation technologies. For example, repetitive or high-risk repair and maintenance activities can be increasingly performed by advanced robotics and artificial intelligence. Another part of these workers is concentrated in the fabricated metal product and machinery manufacturing industry. This industry will benefit from renewed growth in M&E investment, along with additional growth in construction activity and a positive outlook for exports. Demand for fabricated metals and machinery is also expected to be driven by the acceleration projected in the construction of non-residential buildings, renewed growth in business investment related to engineering structures, and major investments in public infrastructure from the federal government. However, on this side as well, most of the increase in output is expected to be met by additional gains in productivity. Additive manufacturing, which refers to technologies that build three-dimensional objects by adding multiple layers of material, could potentially revolutionize how several fabricated metal products are created, reducing waste in production and improving efficiency. Although many jobs associated with repetitive and routine tasks are expected to be threatened by increased automation, there could be stronger demand for skilled workers who can operate more complex machinery used in the manufacturing process. Over the medium term to long term, the occupation will benefit from the transition towards a greener economy. Indeed, the retrofit of manufacturing and industrial plants, as well as the expected increase in the manufacturing of higher-end vehicles and electric vehicles will provide an employment boost over the longer run.
With regard to labour supply over the projection period, most of the job seekers are expected to come from the school system over the projection period, largely from apprenticeship programs. New immigrants are also expected to account for a large number of new job seekers. However, a sizeable number of workers, representing more half of job seekers, are projected to look for newer opportunities in other occupations, specially in supervisory and managerial roles, for example as supervisors, assembly and fabrication (NOC 9220), as well as contractors and supervisors, pipefitting trades (NOC 7203).
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | -500 | -3% |
| Retirements: | 14,700 | 83% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 1,800 | 10% |
| Emigration: | 1,700 | 10% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 17,700 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 34,100 | 203% |
| Immigration: | 13,200 | 79% |
| Other: | -30,400 | -181% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 16,800 | 100% |