Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Plumbers (7251)
- Occupational Outlook
- SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Plumbers (7251)
- Skill Type
- Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require college or vocational education or apprenticeship training.
- Employment in 2021
- 54,700
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 36.6 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 64 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Over the 2019-2021 period, employment in this occupational group increased. Employment fell in 2020 as pandemic related restrictions impacted the construction sector, but it rebounded strongly in 2021, recovering all the employment losses and recording additional gains. Despite the strong growth in employment in 2021, the unemployment rate increased substantially over the period, while the number of job vacancies remained stable. With the increase in employment in 2021, the job vacancy rate, which had steadily increased in previous years, fell in 2021, falling slightly below the national average for the first time since 2017. Finally, with an increasing unemployment rate and stable job vacancies, the number of unemployed workers to fill vacancies grew steadily, reaching around 3.0 in 2021, above the 2.0 national average. Finally, just above one-third of vacancies remained unfilled after 90 days, a proportion that is comparable to the all-occupations average. Overall, analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the supply was sufficient to fill the demand in this occupational group over the 2019-2021 period.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Plumbers are expected to total 12,600, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 10,200.
Although this occupational group has had a balanced market in recent years, projected job openings are expected to be substantially higher to job seekers, creating a shortage of workers over the 2022-2031 period. Retirements are expected to represent about 45% of these job openings, a proportion that is slightly lower than that the average of all occupations (about 50% of job openings). Workers in this occupational group are generally younger than the average and tend to retire at a similar age than those in other occupations, resulting in a retirement rate that is lower than the average rate for all occupations. Employment growth is projected to be similar than the national average. As a result, job creation will represent about 36% of openings, a proportion that is above the same as the occupational average (about 37% of openings). A small decline in residential investment is anticipated in the short-term as the surge in housing prices and higher mortgage rates are expected to reduce new home construction and resale activity, restraining growth in renovation spending. A cyclical recovery in demand for new housing is expected over the medium term in response to higher immigration and stronger pressures on housing supply. However, decent growth in renovation spending is expected to offset some of the weakness in new home construction and resale activity, partly supported by the various federal, provincial and municipal programs dedicated to green housing and the desire of baby-boomers to make home improvements to continue enjoying their houses as they age. On the non-residential investment side, faster growth in investment related to the construction of non-residential buildings will support employment growth in occupations related to the construction sector such as plumbers. The federal government’s infrastructure program launched in 2016 ($186 billion over 12 years) is also expected to continue to support the construction of institutional buildings, at least until 2028. In addition to transportation, public transit, green and rural infrastructures, this program includes spending on “social infrastructure” such as early learning and childcare facilities, affordable housing, home care, and cultural and recreational infrastructure.
With regard to labour supply, over the projection period most of the job seekers are expected to come from the school system, largely from apprenticeship programs. New immigrants are also expected to account for a significant number of new job seekers. However, a sizeable number of workers, representing more than half of job seekers, are projected to look for newer opportunities in other occupations, specially in supervisory and managerial roles, for example as contractors and supervisors, pipefitting trades (NOC 7203).
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 4,500 | 36% |
| Retirements: | 5,700 | 45% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 1,100 | 9% |
| Emigration: | 1,300 | 10% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 12,600 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 23,100 | 226% |
| Immigration: | 4,000 | 39% |
| Other: | -16,900 | -166% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 10,200 | 100% |