Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Here is how COPS identifies occupations in shortage or surplus

The process consists of 3 steps.

Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2023-2025):

COPS assesses the initial labour market conditions (shortage or surplus) for 459 of the 516 NOC existing occupations over the 2023-2025 period. The methodology relies on the analysis of about 30 labour market indicators (e.g. unemployment rate, employment growth, job vacancies growth and duration, proportion of overtime workers and Employment insurance (EI) recipients, etc.). Imbalances (shortages or surplus) are identified when indicators diverge significantly from the average for all occupations and/or their own historical norms.

Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and job seekers (2026-2035):

COPS projects the flows of new job openings (labour demand from job creation and replacement needs due to retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration) and new job seekers (labour market entrants from the school system, new immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and workers switching occupation) over the projection period.

Step 3: Future labour market conditions (by 2035)

Future labour market conditions are determined by combining Step 1 (recent labour market conditions) and Step 2 (projected flows of job seekers and job openings). Step 1 is used as a starting point, and Step 2 is used to assess whether the conditions identified in Step 1 will persist through or change during the projection period.