Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Civil engineers (2131)
- Occupational Outlook
- SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Civil engineers (2131)
- Skill Type
- Natural and applied sciences and related occupations
- Skill Level
- Occupations usually require university education.
- Employment in 2021
- 67,000
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 41.5 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 65 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Over the 2019-2021 period, employment in this occupational group increased at a stronger pace than the national average. Although the unemployment rate increased slightly in 2020 following the impact of the pandemic, it fell back in 2021, remaining well below the national average during the period. Additionally, the number of job vacancies increased over the period, especially in 2021. The number of unemployed workers per job vacancy decreased, due both to the lower unemployment and to an increase in the job vacancy, resulting in a ratio of under 1 in 2019 and 2021, significantly below the Canadian average. Overall, the analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the demand exceeded substantially the supply in this occupational group over the 2019-2021 period.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Civil engineers are expected to total 26,100, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 32,300.
This gap is not considered to be statistically significant, which means that the number of job openings and job seekers are projected to be relatively similar over the 2022-2031 period. As such, the labour shortage conditions seen in recent years will not clear and are expected to persist over the projection period. Employment growth is expected to be similar to the average of all occupations. As a result, job creation will contribute about 44% of the total job openings. The demand for engineering services is expected to be stimulated by the acceleration projected in the construction of industrial and commercial buildings in response to increased demand for energy efficient buildings, electric vehicle manufacturing plants and warehouse space due to the transition toward a green economy and the growing adoption of e-commerce. Following a steep decline in the past several years due to lower oil prices, business investment in engineering structures is expected to straighten, partly supported by major projects in the electric power (utilities), transportation and mining industries in response to growing demand for non-emitting sources of energy, public transit systems and critical minerals (used in the production of clean energy). The federal government’s infrastructure program launched in 2016 ($186 billion over 12 years) is also expected to continue to support the construction of public engineering structures and institutional buildings. In addition to transportation, public transit, green and rural infrastructures, this program also includes spending on social, cultural, and recreational infrastructure. Furthermore, after holding back on investment in machinery and equipment for years, Canadian businesses are expected to replace or upgrade their existing capital stock in response to the development of new productivity-enhancing technologies, the acceleration anticipated in manufacturing activity, the transition towards greener production and demographic pressures on labour supply. Those factors are projected to result in a substantial rebound in M&E investment in Canada, boosting demand for engineering services. Similarly, renewed growth in business investment related to intellectual property, including R&D activities, is expected to boost demand for the industry’s expertise in various fields of scientific research and industrial design. Retirements are projected to represent about 40% of all openings, a proportion that is below the average of all occupations (about 59% of openings). The retirement rate is expected to be below the average of all occupations. The average age of those workers and the median retirement age are about the same as the average worker.
On the supply side, given the important level of enrolment in post-secondary programs, most job seekers are expected to come directly from the school system, mostly bachelor graduates and to a lesser extend master and PhD. The projected number of school leavers alone is projected to be larger than the number of total job openings, given the popularity of engineering programs. Immigrants are also expected to be an important source of labour supply in this occupation, accounting for about 32% of all job seekers. Foreigners seeking employment in this occupational group from countries that have a free trade agreement with a labour component with Canada could be eligible to work in Canada, making it easier for them to enter and permanently remain in the country. Given the relatively important supply of workers, several workers will seek opportunities in other occupations, among others as construction managers (NOC 0711), home building and renovation managers (NOC 0712). This negative mobility will be sufficient to offset the large number of school leavers and immigrants, relatively levelling the projected flows of job openings and seekers over the projected period and allowing the recent situation of labour shortage to persist over the long run.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 11,600 | 44% |
| Retirements: | 10,600 | 41% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 2,400 | 9% |
| Emigration: | 1,500 | 6% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 26,100 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 28,100 | 87% |
| Immigration: | 13,500 | 42% |
| Other: | -9,200 | -28% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 32,300 | 100% |