Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)
Search for Occupational Projection Summaries (2022-2031)
The 2022 COPS exercise was developed using the 2016 version of the National Occupational Classification (NOC). The 2016 NOC has 500 occupations. However, many of these occupations are small in terms of employment. Such occupations were combined into broader groupings according to the specific tasks of each occupation. By grouping small occupations with similar tasks together, 293 occupational groupings were obtained. Although NOC already has a more recent version (2021), the model’s input data were only available in the 2016 version of the NOC at the time of the development of the projections.
For more information on the 293 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit the COPS Occupational Groupings' Definition.
Search Result : Engineering managers & Architecture and science managers (0211)
- Occupational Outlook
- SHORTAGE: This occupational group is expected to face labour shortage conditions over the period of 2022-2031 at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.
- Occupations in this Group
-
- Engineering managers (0211)
- Architecture and science managers (0212)
- Skill Type
- Management occupations
- Skill Level
- Management occupations
- Employment in 2021
- 43,200
- Median Age of workers in 2021
- 46.1 years old
- Estimated Median Age of Retirement in 2021
- 62 years old
In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2022-2031) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2022-2031. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions. It is important to note that COPS does not identify imbalances that may temporarily appear during specific years, unless they will persist over the longer run.
Over the 2019-2021 period, this occupational group experienced strong employment growth, mostly in 2021. This was reflected in a decline in the unemployment rate to reach a historical low and well below the national average in 2021. Additionally, job vacancies increased markedly in 2021. The decrease in the number of unemployed combined with the increase in the number of job vacancies resulted in less than one unemployed person for every job vacancy, which is well below the Canadian average. Overall, the analysis of these and other key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job openings substantially exceeded the number of job seekers in this occupational group over the 2019-2021 period.Over the period 2022-2031, the number of job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) for Engineering managers & Architecture and science managers are expected to total 23,100, while the number of job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) is expected to total 28,800.
This gap is not considered statistically significant, which means that the number of job openings and job seekers are projected to be relatively similar over the 2022-2031 period. As such, the labour shortage conditions seen in recent years will not clear and are expected to persist over the projection period. Job openings are expected to arise equally from employment growth and retirements. As workers in this occupational group tend to be older than average, the retirement rate is expected to be slightly higher than the national average. Still, retirements will account for about 45% of total job openings, a proportion that is lower than the average of all occupations (about 59%). Employment growth is projected to be stronger than the average of all occupations. Job creation in this occupational group depends on the demand for engineering and architecture in several sectors, including manufacturing, construction, mining, and computer industries, where the importance of increasing productivity stimulated the need for engineers and architects. This trend is expected to continue over the projection period. Demand will primarily be driven by faster growth in non-residential building investment and renewed growth in business investment related to engineering structures, machinery and equipment, and research and development activities. For example, the demand for architectural, engineering and design services is expected to be stimulated by the acceleration projected in the construction of industrial and commercial buildings in response to increased demand for energy efficient buildings, electric vehicle manufacturing plants and warehouse space due to the transition toward a green economy and the growing adoption of e-commerce. Following a steep decline in the past several years due to lower oil prices, business investment in engineering structures is expected to straighten, partly supported by major projects in the electric power (utilities), transportation and mining industries in response to growing demand for non-emitting sources of energy, public transit systems and critical minerals (used in the production of clean energy). However, the demand for architectural services is expected to be contained by the small decline anticipated in residential investment (including new home construction) over the projection period, as a result of the surge in housing prices and higher mortgage rates in the short term, and the downward trend in household formation resulting from population aging in the longer term. That said, increasing urban population should help support demand for new residential buildings and mixed-use properties containing retail, office, and residential components, which would require the expertise of architects to develop.
Regarding labour supply, given that many years of experience are generally required to obtain a management position, it is not surprising that most job seekers will come from other occupations, mainly professionals related to natural and applied sciences. Still, immigrants are expected to provide about 15% of the job seekers in this occupational group, and about 9% will come from the school systems, mostly master and PhD graduates.
Projection of Cumulative Job Openings and Job Seekers over the Period of 2022-2031
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| Expansion Demand: | 10,100 | 44% |
| Retirements: | 10,300 | 45% |
| Other Replacement Demand: | 1,600 | 7% |
| Emigration: | 1,000 | 4% |
| Projected Job Openings: | 23,100 | 100% |
| Level | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| School Leavers: | 2,800 | 10% |
| Immigration: | 4,700 | 16% |
| Other: | 21,300 | 74% |
| Projected Job Seekers: | 28,800 | 100% |