Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Data for the Figures of Macroeconomic and Industrial Outlook (2024-2033)

Figure 1 : Components of Population GrowthThe source is located after the table
  Natural Increase (Births minus Deaths) Immigrants
1976 197,900 170,000
1977 192,100 130,900
1978 190,800 100,000
1979 196,600 84,500
1980 195,800 143,800
1981 201,600 127,200
1982 200,100 135,300
1983 197,100 101,400
1984 200,400 88,600
1985 197,200 83,900
1986 192,000 88,700
1987 190,400 130,900
1988 180,100 152,200
1989 195,600 177,600
1990 210,700 203,400
1991 210,500 221,400
1992 206,100 244,300
1993 190,400 266,900
1994 179,700 235,400
1995 172,600 220,700
1996 162,700 217,500
1997 140,100 224,900
1998 127,400 194,500
1999 120,700 173,200
2000 119,700 205,700
2001 108,200 252,500
2002 108,300 256,400
2003 107,400 199,200
2004 110,100 239,100
2005 111,600 244,600
2006 123,200 254,400
2007 129,700 238,100
2008 140,300 249,600
2009 145,400 245,300
2010 144,800 270,600
2011 132,000 259,100
2012 137,700 260,000
2013 130,700 263,100
2014 129,800 267,900
2015 117,500 240,800
2016 122,000 323,200
2017 106,000 272,700
2018 93,200 303,400
2019 90,200 313,600
2020 74,100 284,200
2021 55,300 226,300
2022 44,900 493,200
2023 27,500 468,800
2024 50,300 450,900
2025 55,700 493,300
2026 54,100 501,900
2027 50,400 503,200
2028 46,400 503,000
2029 42,400 504,500
2030 38,100 504,900
2031 33,500 505,200
2032 28,000 505,200
2033 24,200 505,000

Source: Statistics Canada (historical data and projections)

Return at position of Figure 1, Components of Population Growth

Figure 2: Growth in Canadian Population of Working Age (average annual growth, in percentage)
  1984-1994 1994-2004 2004-2014 2014-2024 2024-2034
Population Aged 15+ 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5%
Population Aged 15-64 1.1% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0%

Source: Statistics Canada (historical data and projections).

Return at position of Figure 2: Growth in Canadian Population of Working Age

Figure 3: Distribution of the Working-Age Population by Age Group (in percentage of population aged 15+)The source is located after the table
  1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
15-24 23.8% 17.6% 16.7% 15.6% 14.1% 14.4%
25-54 52.4% 57.2% 55.1% 50.5% 47.5% 47.1%
55-64 11.5% 10.8% 12.6% 15.7% 16.1% 12.7%
65+ 12.3% 14.4% 15.7% 18.2% 22.3% 25.9%

Source : Statistics Canada (historical data and projections).

Return at position of Figure 3: Distribution of the Working-Age Population by Age Group (in percentage of population aged 15+)

Figure 4: Labour Force Participation Rate (15+ and 15-64)(in percentage)
  Population Aged 15+ Population Aged 15-64
1976 61.5% 67.9%
1977 61.9% 68.5%
1978 62.7% 69.6%
1979 63.7% 70.8%
1980 64.3% 71.6%
1981 65.0% 72.6%
1982 64.4% 72.0%
1983 64.7% 72.5%
1984 65.0% 73.0%
1985 65.7% 73.9%
1986 66.1% 74.6%
1987 66.5% 75.3%
1988 66.8% 75.9%
1989 67.3% 76.6%
1990 67.1% 76.6%
1991 66.6% 76.2%
1992 65.7% 75.3%
1993 65.4% 75.1%
1994 65.2% 74.9%
1995 64.8% 74.7%
1996 64.7% 74.6%
1997 64.8% 74.8%
1998 65.1% 75.2%
1999 65.5% 75.8%
2000 65.8% 76.2%
2001 65.9% 76.4%
2002 66.8% 77.4%
2003 67.5% 78.1%
2004 67.5% 78.1%
2005 67.2% 77.7%
2006 67.2% 77.9%
2007 67.5% 78.3%
2008 67.6% 78.5%
2009 67.3% 78.2%
2010 67.1% 78.0%
2011 66.9% 78.0%
2012 66.9% 78.2%
2013 66.8% 78.4%
2014 66.3% 78.0%
2015 66.2% 78.2%
2016 65.9% 78.3%
2017 66.1% 78.7%
2018 65.8% 78.7%
2019 66.0% 79.2%
2020 64.3% 77.7%
2021 65.4% 79.4%
2022 65.5% 79.8%
2023 65.6% 80.2%
2024 65.3% 80.0%
2025 65.2% 80.2%
2026 65.0% 80.3%
2027 64.8% 80.5%
2028 64.6% 80.6%
2029 64.4% 80.8%
2030 64.2% 80.9%
2031 64.0% 81.0%
2032 63.9% 81.0%
2033 63.7% 81.1%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS macroeconomic outlook.

Return at position of Figure 4: Labour Force Participation Rate (15+ and 15-64)

Figure 5: Growth in Employment and Labour Force (in percentage)
  Employment Labour force
2000 2.5% 1.7%
2001 1.2% 1.6%
2002 2.3% 2.8%
2003 2.4% 2.3%
2004 1.7% 1.2%
2005 1.3% 0.9%
2006 1.8% 1.5%
2007 2.1% 1.7%
2008 1.4% 1.5%
2009 -1.4% 1.0%
2010 1.4% 1.0%
2011 1.6% 1.0%
2012 1.3% 1.1%
2013 1.3% 1.0%
2014 0.4% 0.2%
2015 0.7% 0.6%
2016 0.6% 0.7%
2017 2.1% 1.5%
2018 1.8% 1.2%
2019 2.1% 1.9%
2020 -5.6% -1.4%
2021 5.0% 2.5%
2022 4.0% 1.5%
2023 2.4% 2.6%
2024 1.6% 2.5%
2025 1.9% 1.4%
2026 1.6% 1.2%
2027 1.2% 1.1%
2028 1.0% 1.1%
2029 1.0% 1.0%
2030 0.9% 1.0%
2031 1.0% 0.9%
2032 1.0% 1.0%
2033 0.9% 1.0%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS macroeconomic outlook.

Return at position of Figure 5: Growth in Employment and Labour Force (in percentage)

Figure 6 - Growth in Real GDP, Final Domestic Demand and Exports (in percentage)
  Real GDP (Aggregate Demand) Final Domestic Demand Exports (Foreign Demand)
2000 5.1% 4.1% 9.0%
2001 1.9% 3.1% -2.7%
2002 3.0% 3.0% 1.2%
2003 1.8% 3.3% -1.7%
2004 3.1% 3.9% 5.6%
2005 3.2% 4.5% 2.3%
2006 2.6% 4.4% 0.9%
2007 2.0% 3.7% 1.1%
2008 1.0% 2.8% -4.6%
2009 -2.9% -2.2% -13.0%
2010 3.1% 5.0% 6.7%
2011 3.1% 2.6% 4.8%
2012 1.8% 2.3% 2.8%
2013 2.3% 1.6% 2.5%
2014 2.9% 2.1% 6.3%
2015 0.6% 0.3% 3.4%
2016 1.0% 0.5% 1.5%
2017 3.0% 3.3% 1.5%
2018 2.7% 2.7% 3.6%
2019 1.9% 1.3% 2.3%
2020 -5.0% -4.1% -9.0%
2021 5.3% 6.1% 2.7%
2022 3.8% 2.8% 3.2%
2023 1.1% 0.5% 5.7%
2024 1.0% 1.2% -0.3%
2025 2.8% 3.0% 4.1%
2026 2.5% 2.6% 2.8%
2027 2.0% 2.1% 2.0%
2028 1.7% 1.9% 1.8%
2029 1.7% 1.7% 1.8%
2030 1.2% 1.7% 0.0%
2031 1.8% 1.7% 1.9%
2032 1.7% 1.7% 1.8%
2033 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
  Real GDP Final Domestic Demand Exports
2014-2023 +1.5% +1.5% +1.5%
2024-2033 +2.0% +1.9% +2.4%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS macroeconomic outlook.

Return at position of Figure 6: Growth in Real GDP, Final Domestic Demand and Exports

Figure 7: Indexed Growth in Major Components of Real Final Domestic Demand
  Consumer Spending Residential Investment Non-Residential Investment Government Spending
2013 82,1 97,7 106,8 81,7
2014 84,3 99,3 111,2 81,7
2015 86,2 103,1 98,7 82,8
2016 87,8 107,2 88,1 84,0
2017 91,1 109,7 90,7 86,4
2018 93,6 108,3 95,2 89,
2019 95,0 107,5 98,3 89,4
2020 88,9 110,5 88,3 90,7
2021 93,5 126,7 96,4 94,8
2022 98,3 111,4 100,6 98,0
2023 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0
2024 101,3 102, 101,1 101,0
2025 104,3 109, 105,3 102,5
2026 107,5 116,7 105,6 104,0
2027 109,9 123,1 106,1 105,6
2028 112,1 127,1 107,4 107,3
2029 114,2 129,4 108,6 109,0
2030 116,3 131,7 109,9 110,7
2031 118,4 133,7 111,2 112,6
2032 120,6 135,4 112,5 114,4
2033 122,8 137,1 113,8 116,3

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS macroeconomic outlook.

Return at position of Figure 7: Indexed Growth in Major Components of Real Final Domestic Demand

Figure 8: Real Net Exports (as a percentage of total real GDP)
  Real net exports
1981 4.1%
1982 3.6%
1983 4.2%
1984 3.6%
1985 3.4%
1986 3.0%
1987 2.4%
1988 1.5%
1989 2.1%
1990 2.1%
1991 2.0%
1992 2.6%
1993 3.5%
1994 4.7%
1995 5.7%
1996 6.0%
1997 4.9%
1998 6.3%
1999 7.3%
2000 7.7%
2001 8.0%
2002 7.7%
2003 5.9%
2004 5.2%
2005 3.7%
2006 2.3%
2007 0.9%
2008 -0.9%
2009 -1.0%
2010 -3.1%
2011 -3.3%
2012 -3.7%
2013 -3.6%
2014 -2.4%
2015 -1.6%
2016 -1.2%
2017 -2.2%
2018 -2.2%
2019 -1.4%
2020 -1.2%
2021 -2.8%
2022 -4.2%
2023 -2.8%
2024 -2.4%
2025 -2.2%
2026 -2.3%
2027 -2.3%
2028 -2.4%
2029 -2.5%
2030 -3.1%
2031 -3.0%
2032 -2.9%
2033 -2.9%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS macroeconomic outlook.

Return at position of Figure 8: Real Net Exports

Figure 9 - Real GDP Growth by Aggregate Sector over the Periods 2014-2023 and 2024-2033 (average annual growth, in percentage)
  All Industries Primary Manufacturing Construction Services
2014-2023 1.8% 1.4% 0.8% 0.8% 2.1%
2024-2033 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.7% 1.9%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS industrial outlook.

Return at position of Figure 9 - Real GDP Growth by Aggregate Sector over the Periods 2014-2023 and 2024-2033

 
Figure 10 - Employment Growth by Aggregate Sector over the Periods 2014-2023 and 2024-2033 (average annual growth, in percentage)
  All Industries Primary Manufacturing Construction Services
2014-2023 1.3% -1.7% 0.4% 1.4% 1.5%
2024-2033 1.2% 0.2% 0.6% 1.5% 1.3%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS industrial outlook.

Return at position of Figure 10 - Employment Growth by Aggregate Sector over the Periods 2014-2023 and 2024-2033

 
 
Figure 11: Productivity Growth by Aggregate Sector* (average annual growth, in percentage)
  All Industries Primary Manufacturing Construction Services
2013-2024 0.5% 3.2% 0.4% -0.6% 0.5%
2024-2033 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS industrial outlook.
* Note: In this document, the term productivity always refers to labour productivity.

Return at position of Figure 11: Productivity Growth by Aggregate Sector*

 
 
Figure 12 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth by Aggregate Sector, Projection 2024-2033 (average annual growth, in percentage)
  All Industries Primary Manufacturing Construction Services
Employment Growth 1.2% 0.2% 0.6% 1.5% 1.3%
Productivity Growth* 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6%
Real GDP Growth 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.7% 1.9%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS industrial outlook.
* Note: In this document, the term productivity always refers to labour productivity.

Return at position of Figure 12 - Decomposition of Real GDP Growth by Aggregate Sector, Projection 2024-2033

 
 
Figure 13a - Distribution of Real GDP by Aggregate Sector (in percentage of total real GDP), 2001-2033
  Primary Manufacturing Construction Services
2001 10,2 % 16,4 % 9, % 61,2 %
2002 9,7 % 16,2 % 9,1 % 61,7 %
2003 9,9 % 15,7 % 9,2 % 61,9 %
2004 10,1 % 15,5 % 9,4 % 61,9 %
2005 10,0 % 15,3 % 9,5 % 62,0 %
2006 9,9 % 14,6 % 9,6 % 62,8 %
2007 7,0 % 12,9 % 7,4 % 70,3 %
2008 7,0 % 12,1 % 7,5 % 70,9 %
2009 6,5 % 10,8 % 7,3 % 73,0 %
2010 6,7 % 11,0 % 7,6 % 72,3 %
2011 7,0 % 11,0 % 7,7 % 72,0 %
2012 6,8 % 10,9 % 8,1 % 71,9 %
2013 7,2 % 10,6 % 8,3 % 71,7 %
2014 7,2 % 10,7 % 8,3 % 71,6 %
2015 7,1 % 10,6 % 8,0 % 72,0 %
2016 7,0 % 10,5 % 7,6 % 72,6 %
2017 7,3 % 10,4 % 7,6 % 72,5 %
2018 7,3 % 10,4 % 7,6 % 72,5 %
2019 7,2 % 10,2 % 7,5 % 72,9 %
2020 7,1 % 9,8 % 7,7 % 73,1 %
2021 6,9 % 9,8 % 7,8 % 73,3 %
2022 7,1 % 9,8 % 7,7 % 73,3 %
2023 6,9 % 9,7 % 7,5 % 73,9 %
2024 6,9 % 9,7 % 7,3 % 74,1 %
2025 7,0 % 9,6 % 7,3 % 74,0 %
2026 7,1 % 9,6 % 7,4 % 73,9 %
2027 7,0 % 9,5 % 7,4 % 74,0 %
2028 7,0 % 9,4 % 7,5 % 74,1 %
2029 6,9 % 9,4 % 7,5 % 74,3 %
2030 6,7 % 9,3 % 7,5 % 74,6 %
2031 6,6 % 9,3 % 7,5 % 74,7 %
2032 6,6 % 9,3 % 7,4 % 74,8 %
2033 6,5 % 9,2 % 7,4 % 74,9 %

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS industrial outlook.

Return at position of Figure 13a - Percentage Distribution of Real GDP by Aggregate Sector

Figure 13b - Percentage Distribution of Employment by Aggregate Sector (in percentage of total employment), 2001-2033
  Primary Manufacturing Construction Services
2001 4.0% 14.9% 5.5% 74.8%
2002 3.9% 15.0% 5.6% 74.7%
2003 3.9% 14.5% 5.8% 74.9%
2004 3.8% 14.4% 6.0% 74.9%
2005 4.0% 13.7% 6.3% 75.2%
2006 4.1% 12.7% 6.7% 75.7%
2007 4.0% 12.0% 6.9% 76.3%
2008 3.9% 11.3% 7.4% 76.6%
2009 3.8% 10.5% 7.2% 77.7%
2010 3.7% 10.2% 7.3% 78.0%
2011 3.8% 10.2% 7.6% 77.8%
2012 3.9% 10.2% 7.6% 77.6%
2013 3.9% 9.8% 7.8% 77.8%
2014 3.8% 9.7% 7.7% 78.0%
2015 3.6% 9.7% 7.6% 78.3%
2016 3.4% 9.6% 7.7% 78.6%
2017 3.3% 9.6% 7.7% 78.7%
2018 3.3% 9.5% 7.7% 78.8%
2019 3.3% 9.2% 7.7% 79.2%
2020 3.3% 9.3% 7.8% 79.0%
2021 3.1% 9.2% 7.7% 79.3%
2022 3.0% 9.1% 7.9% 79.3%
2023 2.9% 9.0% 7.8% 79.5%
2024 2.8% 8.9% 7.8% 79.8%
2025 2.8% 8.8% 7.9% 79.7%
2026 2.8% 8.8% 8.0% 79.7%
2027 2.8% 8.8% 8.0% 79.7%
2028 2.8% 8.7% 8.0% 79.8%
2029 2.7% 8.7% 8.0% 79.9%
2030 2.7% 8.6% 8.0% 80.0%
2031 2.6% 8.6% 8.0% 80.0%
2032 2.6% 8.5% 8.0% 80.1%
2033 2.6% 8.5% 8.0% 80.2%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS industrial outlook.

Return at position of Figure 13b - Percentage Distribution of Employment by Aggregate Sector

 
Figure 14 - Industries Projected to Post the Strongest Growth in Employment, 2024-2033 (average annual growth, in percentage)
  Employment Growth
Health Care 2.6%
Computer System Design Services 2.4%
Support Activities for Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction 1.9%
Postal, Courier, Warehousing and Storage Services 1.8%
Truck and Ground Passenger Transportation Services 1.6%
Legal and Accounting Services; Consulting, Advertising and Other Professional Services 1.6%
Colleges, CEGEPs and Vocational Schools 1.6%
Business, Building and Other Support Services 1.5%
Construction 1.5%
Computer, Electronic and Electrical Product Manufacturing 1.5%
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Services 1.4%
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Services 1.3%
Social Assistance 1.3%
Forestry and Logging 1.3%
Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing 1.3%
ECONOMY AVERAGE 1.2%

Source: ESDC 2024 COPS industrial outlook.
*industries with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2023).

Return at position of Figure 14 - Industries Projected to Post the Strongest Growth in Employment, 2024-2033 (average annual growth, in percentage)

 
Figure 15 - Industries Projected to Post Average or Moderate Growth in Employment, 2024-2033 (average annual growth, in percentage)
  Employment Growth
ECONOMY AVERAGE 1.2%
Accommodation Services 1.2%
Motor Vehicles, Body, Trailer and Parts Manufacturing 1.2%
Universities 1.2%
Repair, Personal and Household Services 1.1%
Elementary and Secondary Schools 1.1%
Other Transportation Services (air/rail/water/pipeline/etc.) 1.1%
Chemical Manufacturing 0.9%
Non-Automotive Transportation Equipment 0.8%
Food and Beverage Product Manufacturing 0.8%
Public Administration 0.7%
Food Services 0.7%
Utilities 0.7%
Arch., Eng. and Design Services; Scientific R&D Services 0.7%

Source: ESDC 2024 COPS industrial outlook.
*industries with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2023).

Return at position of Figure 15 - Industries Projected to Post Average or Moderate Growth in Employment, 2024-2033

 
Figure 16 - Industries Projected to Post the Weakest Growth or Declines in Employment, 2024-2033 (average annual growth, in percentage)
  Employment Growth
ECONOMY AVERAGE 1.2%
Information and Culture Services 0.6%
Wholesale Trade 0.5%
Retail Trade 0.5%
Mining and Quarrying (except Oil and Gas) 0.4%
Fabricated Metal Product and Machinery Manufacturing 0.4%
Miscellaneous Manufacturing 0.3%
Manufactured Mineral Products 0.2%
Textile, Clothing, Leather and Furniture Manufacturing 0.1%
Wood Product Manufacturing 0%
Oil and gas Extraction -0.2%
Printing and Related Support Activities -0.2%
Fishing, Hunting and Trapping -0.4%
Paper Manufacturing -0.4%
Agriculture -0.5%

Source: ESDC 2024 COPS industrial outlook.
*industries with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2023).

Return at position of Figure 16 - Industries Projected to Post the Weakest Growth or Declines in Employment, 2024-2033

 
Figure 17 - Industries Projected to Post the Largest Increases in Employment, 2024-2033 (cumulative change, in thousands)
  Employment Growth
Health Care* 611.7
Construction 246.9
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Services* 196.6
Computer System Design and Related Services 167.6
Legal, Accounting, Consulting and Other Prof. Services* 133.8
Retail Trade* 119.7
Management, Administrative and Other Support Services 111.5
Elementary and Secondary Schools* 101.8
Repair, Personal and Household Services* 90.7
Public administration* 89.4

Source: ESDC 2024 COPS industrial outlook.
*industries with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2023).

Return at position of Figure 17 - Industries Projected to Post the Largest Increases in Employment, 2024-2033

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