Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC) uses the models of the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) to develop projections of future trends in the major sources of job openings (expansion demand and replacement demand) and job seekers (school leavers and new immigrants) by occupation over the medium term, at the national level. By looking at prospective changes in both the demand and supply sides of the labour market, the projections allow for identifying occupations where potential labour market imbalances can occur.

Generally, the projections will point towards shortage pressures in a given occupation if the projected number of job openings in that occupation significantly exceeds the projected number of new job seekers. However, for occupations that experienced surplus conditions in recent years, the projection of more job openings than job seekers may result in balanced labour market conditions into the medium term.

Conversely, the projections will point towards surplus conditions in an occupation if the projected number of job openings in that occupation is well below the projected number of new job seekers. However, for occupations that experienced shortage conditions in recent years, the projection of less job openings than job seekers may result in balanced labour market conditions into the medium term.

The process consists of 3 steps.

Step 1: Recent labour market conditions (2021-2023):

COPS assesses the initial labour market conditions (shortage or surplus) for 485 of the 516 NOC existing occupations over the 2021-2023 period. The methodology relies on the analysis of about 30 labour market indicators (e.g. unemployment rate, employment growth, job vacancies growth and duration, proportion of overtime workers and Employment insurance (EI) recipients, etc.). Imbalances (shortages or surplus) are identified when indicators diverge significantly from the average for all occupations and/or their own historical norms.

Step 2: Projected flows of job openings and job seekers (2024-2033):

COPS projects the flows of new job openings (labour demand from job creation and replacement needs due to retirements, in-service deaths, or emigration) and new job seekers (labour market entrants from the school system, immigrants, re-entrants into the labour market, and workers switching occupation) over the projection period.

Step 3: Future labour market conditions (by 2033)

Future labour market conditions are determined by combining Step 1 (recent labour market conditions) and Step 2 (projected flows of job seekers and job openings). Step 1 is used as a starting point, and Step 2 is used to assess whether the conditions identified in Step 1 will persist through or change during the projection period.

As noted above, the focus of COPS is on trends over a 10-year horizon, not on year-to-year developments. It would be possible to summarize trends in projected variables by looking only at changes in those variables between the last year of historical data available (2023) when the projections were prepared (2024) and the last year of the projection period (2033). However, as many users work with annual time series, this site provides all the annual data points over the projection period.

In addition to assisting labour market analysts and policy makers, the projections can be used in labour market information (LMI) products targeted at assisting Canadians and potential immigrants in their education and career decisions.

As for any forecast or projection models, COPS has to rely on assumptions regarding several factors that will influence future occupational labour demand and supply in Canada, including economic conditions, the size and distribution of occupational demand within industry and the number and occupational distribution of new entrants in the labour market. Future developments in these factors are uncertain.

Employment and Social Development Canada makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the COPS projections.