Figure 1, Industries Projected to Have the Strongest Employment Growth, 2017-2026, (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
| Health Care |
1.92% |
| Computer Systems Design and Related Services |
1.91% |
| Support Activities for Mining, Oil and Gas Extraction |
1.50% |
| Social Assistance |
1.33% |
| Legal, Accounting, Consulting and Other Prof. Services |
1.30% |
| Arts, Entertainment and Recreation |
1.27% |
| Food Services |
1.26% |
| Architectural, Engineering, Design and Rsearch and Development Services |
1.26% |
| Management, Administrative and Other Support Services |
1.19% |
| Aerospace, Rail, Ship and Other Transportation Equipment |
1.09% |
| Air, Rail, Water and Pipeline Transportation Services |
1.09% |
Source: ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).
Return at position of Figure 1 - Industries Projected to Have the Strongest Employment Growth, 2017-2026, (average annual growth, in percentage)
Figure 2: Industries Projected to Have Average or Moderate Employment Growth, 2017-2026, (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
| Plastic and Rubber Products |
0.94% |
| Elementary and Secondary Schools |
0.91% |
| Construction |
0.91% |
| Wholesale Trade |
0.82% |
| Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Services |
0.79% |
| Truck and Ground Passenger Transportation Services |
0.78% |
| Mining |
0.78% |
| Fabricated Metal Products and Machinery |
0.75% |
| Chemical Products |
0.70% |
| Miscellaneous Manufacturing |
0.69% |
| Electric, Gas and Water Utilities |
0.67% |
| Oil and Gas Extraction |
0.61% |
| Motor Vehicles, Trailers and Parts |
0.60% |
| Primary Metals and Mineral Products |
0.60% |
| Accommodation Services |
0.58% |
| Information, Culture and Telecommunications Services |
0.56% |
Source: ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).
Return at position of Figure 2: Industries Projected to Have Average or Moderate Employment Growth, 2017-2026, (average annual growth, in percentage)
Figure 3: Industries Projected to Have the Weakest Growth or Declines in Employment, 2017-2026, (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
| Food and Beverage Products |
0.48% |
| Repair, Personal and Household Services |
0.47% |
| Public Administration |
0.45% |
| Colleges, CEGEPs and Vocational Schools |
0.38% |
| Retail Trade |
0.34% |
| Universities |
0.32% |
| Wood Product Manufacturing |
0.20% |
| Postal, Courier, Warehousing and Storage Services |
0.19% |
| Forestry and Logging |
-0.23% |
| Computer, Electronic and Electrical Products |
-0.26% |
| Agriculture |
-0.67% |
| Textiles, Clothing, Leather and Furniture |
-0.85% |
| Paper Manufacturing |
-1.20% |
| Printing and Related Activities |
-1.38% |
| Fishing, Hunting and Trapping |
-1.54% |
Source: ESDC 2017 COPS industrial scenario (projections).
Return at position of Figure 3: Industries Projected to Have the Weakest Growth or Declines in Employment, 2017-2026, (average annual growth, in percentage)
Figure 4: High- and Low-skilled Average Annual Employment Change, 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 The source is located after the table
| |
1997-2006 |
2007-2016 |
2017-2026 |
| Annual Change, High-Skilled |
177,189 |
178,059 |
124,604 |
| Annual Change, Low-Skilled |
120,525 |
-9,669 |
39,113 |
Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS Projections
Return at position of Figure 4: High- and Low-skilled Average Annual Employment Change, 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026
Figure 5: Distribution of Expansion Demand by Skill Level, 2017-2026 (in thousands) The source is located after the table
| Expansion Demand |
Management |
Skill Level A (university education) |
Skill Level B (college education) |
Skill Level C (high school education) |
Skill Level D (on-the-job training) |
| 2017-2026 (in thousands) |
77 |
563 |
606 |
241 |
150 |
| Distribution share by skill level |
4.7% |
34.4% |
37.0% |
14.7% |
9.1% |
Sources: ESDC 2017 COPS Projections
Return at position of Figure 5: Distribution of Expansion Demand by Skill Level, 2017-2026 (in thousands)
Figure 6: Distribution of Employment by Skill Level: 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 The source is located after the table
| Employment by Skill Level-Share |
2007-2016 |
2017-2026 |
| Management |
9.7% |
8.7% |
| Skill Level A (university education) |
18.6% |
20.8% |
| Skill Level B (college education) |
32.6% |
34.5% |
| Skill Level C (high school education) |
28.2% |
25.3% |
| Skill Level D (on-the-job training) |
10.8% |
10.7% |
Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS Projections
Return at position of Figure 6: Distribution of Employment by Skill Level: 2007-2016 and 2017-2026
Figure 7: Sources of Replacement Demand over the Periods 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (in thousands)The source is located after the table
| |
1997-2006 |
2007-2016 |
2017-2026 |
| Retirements |
1,895 |
2,902 |
3,895 |
| In-Service Mortality |
358 |
438 |
511 |
| Emigration |
349 |
275 |
306 |
Note: Historical retirements are constructed using data from the Longitudinal Administrative Database (LAD). Retirement is defined as a complete and permanent withdrawal from the labour market
Sources: ESDC estimates (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS Projections.
Return at position of Figure 7: Sources of Replacement Demand over the Periods 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (in thousands)
Figure 8: Overall Retirement Rate and Indexed Growth of Retirements and Employment (2005=100), 1998-2026The source is located after the table
| |
Indexed Retirements (2005=100) |
Indexed Employment (2005=100) |
Overall Retirement Rate |
| 1998 |
87.1 |
83.8 |
1.2% |
| 1999 |
89.3 |
83.9 |
1.2% |
| 2000 |
91.5 |
93.5 |
1.3% |
| 2001 |
92.6 |
92.7 |
1.2% |
| 2002 |
94.8 |
91.8 |
1.2% |
| 2003 |
97.1 |
97.1 |
1.2% |
| 2004 |
98.7 |
98.8 |
1.2% |
| 2005 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
1.2% |
| 2006 |
101.7 |
103.3 |
1.3% |
| 2007 |
104.0 |
120.2 |
1.4% |
| 2008 |
105.5 |
123.6 |
1.5% |
| 2009 |
103.8 |
127.9 |
1.5% |
| 2010 |
105.2 |
126.7 |
1.5% |
| 2011 |
106.8 |
139.0 |
1.6% |
| 2012 |
108.2 |
147.6 |
1.7% |
| 2013 |
109.7 |
156.0 |
1.8% |
| 2014 |
110.4 |
162.3 |
1.8% |
| 2015 |
111.3 |
167.0 |
1.9% |
| 2016 |
112.1 |
173.7 |
1.9% |
| 2017 |
113.5 |
178.0 |
2.0% |
| 2018 |
114.6 |
183.4 |
2.0% |
| 2019 |
115.6 |
188.4 |
2.0% |
| 2020 |
116.7 |
192.7 |
2.1% |
| 2021 |
117.7 |
196.2 |
2.1% |
| 2022 |
118.7 |
198.7 |
2.1% |
| 2023 |
119.7 |
200.4 |
2.1% |
| 2024 |
120.6 |
200.9 |
2.1% |
| 2025 |
121.4 |
200.5 |
2.1% |
| 2026 |
122.3 |
199.2 |
2.0% |
Note: Historical retirements are constructed using data from the Longitudinal Administrative Database (LAD). Retirement is defined as a complete and permanent withdrawal from the labour market
Sources: ESDC estimates (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS Projections.
Return at position of Figure 8: Overall Retirement Rate and Indexed Growth of Retirements and Employment (2005=100), 1998-2026
Figure 9: Share of the Population Aged 50 and Over and their Retirement Rate, 1990-2026The source is located after the table
| |
Population Share (50+) |
Retirement rate (50+) |
| 1990 |
30.8% |
8.7% |
| 1991 |
31.1% |
8.8% |
| 1992 |
31.3% |
8.5% |
| 1993 |
31.7% |
8.3% |
| 1994 |
31.9% |
8.1% |
| 1995 |
32.1% |
7.8% |
| 1996 |
32.5% |
7.4% |
| 1997 |
33.1% |
7.6% |
| 1998 |
33.6% |
6.2% |
| 1999 |
34.2% |
5.8% |
| 2000 |
34.8% |
6.1% |
| 2001 |
35.3% |
5.8% |
| 2002 |
35.7% |
5.5% |
| 2003 |
36.3% |
5.4% |
| 2004 |
36.9% |
5.2% |
| 2005 |
37.6% |
5.0% |
| 2006 |
38.3% |
4.9% |
| 2007 |
39.1% |
5.4% |
| 2008 |
39.7% |
5.3% |
| 2009 |
40.4% |
5.4% |
| 2010 |
41.0% |
5.1% |
| 2011 |
41.8% |
5.4% |
| 2012 |
42.6% |
5.5% |
| 2013 |
43.2% |
5.6% |
| 2014 |
43.9% |
5.7% |
| 2015 |
44.3% |
5.8% |
| 2016 |
44.8% |
5.9% |
| 2017 |
45.1% |
6.0% |
| 2018 |
45.4% |
6.1% |
| 2019 |
45.7% |
6.2% |
| 2020 |
46.0% |
6.3% |
| 2021 |
46.3% |
6.3% |
| 2022 |
46.5% |
6.4% |
| 2023 |
46.6% |
6.4% |
| 2024 |
46.7% |
6.4% |
| 2025 |
46.9% |
6.3% |
| 2026 |
47.1% |
6.3% |
Note: Historical retirements are constructed using data from the Longitudinal Administrative Database (LAD). Retirement is defined as a complete and permanent withdrawal from the labour market
Sources: ESDC estimates (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS Projections.
Return at position of Figure 9: Share of the Population Aged 50 and Over and their Retirement Rate, 1990-2026
Figure 10: Distribution of Retirements by Skill Level, 2017-2026 (in thousands) The source is located after the table
| |
Management |
Skill Level A (university education) |
Skill Level B (college education) |
Skill Level C (high school education) |
Skill Level D (on-the-job training) |
| Retirement |
481,868 |
742,422 |
1,296,209 |
1,040,775 |
334,117 |
| Share of retirement by skill level |
12% |
19% |
33% |
27% |
9% |
Sources: ESDC 2017 COPS Projections.
Return at position of Figure 10: Distribution of Retirements by Skill Level, 2017-2026 (in thousands)
Figure 11: Distribution of Retirements by Skill Level, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (in percentage)The source is located after the table
| |
2007-2016 |
2017-2026 |
| Management |
13.2% |
12.4% |
| Skill Level A (university education) |
20.0% |
19.1% |
| Skill Level B (college education) |
31.8% |
33.3% |
| Skill Level C (high school education) |
26.9% |
26.7% |
| Skill Level D (on-the-job training) |
8.1% |
8.6% |
Sources: ESDC 2017 COPS Projections (estimated retirements over the historical period obtained by using data from the Longitudinal Administrative Database (LAD) from Statistics Canada and Labour Force Survey).
Return at position of Figure 11: Distribution of Retirements by Skill Level, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (in percentage)
Figure 12: Job Openings from Expansion Demand and Replacement Demand over the Periods 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (in thousands)The source is located after the table
| |
1997-2006 |
2007-2016 |
2017-2026 |
| Expansion Demand |
2,977,100 |
1,683,900 |
1,637,200 |
| Expansion Demand Percentage Share |
53.4% |
31.8% |
25.8% |
| Replacement Demand |
2,602,100 |
3,613,900 |
4,712,500 |
| Replacement Demand Percentage Share |
46.6% |
68.2% |
74.2% |
Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2017 COPS Projections
Return at position of Figure 12: Job Openings from Expansion Demand and Replacement Demand over the Periods 1997-2006, 2007-2016 and 2017-2026 (in thousands)
Figure 13: Job Openings from Expansion and Replacement Demand by Skill Level, 2017-2026 (in thousands) The source is located after the table
| |
Expansion Demand |
Retirements |
Other Replacement Demand |
Total |
Share |
| Management |
481,868 |
76,542 |
86,520 |
644,930 |
10.2% |
| Skill Level A (university education) |
742,422 |
563,395 |
164,928 |
1,470,745 |
23.2% |
| Skill Level B (college education) |
1,296,209 |
606,106 |
271,927 |
2,174,242 |
34.2% |
| Skill Level C (high school education) |
1,040,775 |
241,477 |
209,566 |
1,491,818 |
23.5% |
| Skill Level D (on-the-job training) |
334,117 |
149,657 |
82,748 |
566,522 |
8.9% |
Sources: ESDC 2017 COPS Projections
Return at position of Figure 13: Job Openings from Expansion and Replacement Demand by Skill Level, 2017-2026 (in thousands)