Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

Job Seeker (2022-2031)

Figure 1 - School Leavers by Education Level, 1991-2031 The source is located after the table
  Some High School Secondary and Some Postsecondary College University Total
1991 7,660 74,210 135,690 79,570 297,120
1992 9,240 71,120 137,110 83,620 301,090
1993 10,900 68,920 138,530 87,330 305,690
1994 12,680 68,150 140,590 90,880 312,290
1995 14,630 69,440 144,190 94,800 323,050
1996 16,540 71,740 147,920 98,440 334,640
1997 18,380 74,970 151,930 102,250 347,530
1998 20,200 79,610 157,110 107,010 363,920
1999 21,610 84,260 161,600 111,510 378,970
2000 22,320 87,870 164,460 115,310 389,970
2001 22,240 90,010 165,360 118,280 395,880
2002 21,720 92,370 166,750 122,460 403,310
2003 20,560 93,230 166,630 126,250 406,670
2004 18,830 91,950 164,450 129,030 404,260
2005 16,950 89,610 162,060 132,140 400,760
2006 15,110 87,540 160,760 136,240 399,640
2007 13,190 85,250 159,410 140,300 398,150
2008 11,220 82,520 157,720 144,310 395,770
2009 9,370 79,480 155,820 148,430 393,100
2010 7,830 76,770 154,570 153,490 392,660
2011 6,690 74,750 154,600 160,340 396,380
2012 5,920 72,590 154,890 167,830 401,220
2013 5,520 70,430 155,520 175,910 407,380
2014 5,440 68,050 156,290 184,170 413,950
2015 5,670 65,950 158,100 193,490 423,210
2016 6,170 64,940 162,050 205,010 438,170
2017 6,880 64,760 167,760 218,380 457,780
2018 7,600 64,240 173,430 231,260 476,530
2019 8,210 63,300 178,580 242,680 492,780
2020 8,620 62,080 182,990 251,900 505,590
2021 8,850 61,340 188,520 261,120 519,840
2022 8,780 60,720 193,480 268,340 531,320
2023 8,450 59,900 197,310 273,230 538,890
2024 7,960 58,780 200,060 276,160 542,960
2025 7,440 57,370 202,170 278,020 545,000
2026 7,030 55,700 204,050 279,580 546,370
2027 6,800 53,800 206,010 281,400 548,010
2028 6,740 51,700 208,190 283,710 550,350
2029 6,820 49,470 210,670 286,610 553,560
2030 6,980 47,140 213,410 290,010 557,540
2031 7,190 44,770 216,350 293,730 562,040

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 1 - School Leavers by Education Level, 1991-2031

Figure 2 - Populations Aged 15 to 19 and 20 to 29 and their Shares in the Total Working Age Population (15-64), 1991-2031 The source is located after the table
  Population 20-29 (in thousands) Share of Working-Age Population, 20-29 (percentage) Population 15-19 (in thousands) Share of Working-Age Population, 15-19 (percentage)
1991 4,590 24.1% 1,930 10.1%
1992 4,500 23.4% 1,930 10.0%
1993 4,380 22.6% 1,930 10.0%
1994 4,270 21.8% 1,960 10.0%
1995 4,190 21.1% 1,980 10.0%
1996 4,150 20.7% 2,010 10.0%
1997 4,140 20.4% 2,030 10.0%
1998 4,120 20.1% 2,050 10.0%
1999 4,120 19.9% 2,070 10.0%
2000 4,140 19.8% 2,100 10.0%
2001 4,180 19.7% 2,120 10.0%
2002 4,230 19.6% 2,130 9.9%
2003 4,280 19.6% 2,130 9.8%
2004 4,340 19.7% 2,140 9.7%
2005 4,390 19.6% 2,180 9.7%
2006 4,440 19.6% 2,210 9.8%
2007 4,490 19.6% 2,230 9.8%
2008 4,540 19.7% 2,250 9.7%
2009 4,610 19.7% 2,260 9.7%
2010 4,680 19.8% 2,250 9.5%
2011 4,720 19.9% 2,240 9.4%
2012 4,770 20.0% 2,200 9.2%
2013 4,810 20.0% 2,150 9.0%
2014 4,840 20.0% 2,120 8.8%
2015 4,830 19.9% 2,090 8.7%
2016 4,850 20.0% 2,080 8.6%
2017 4,920 20.1% 2,090 8.5%
2018 5,010 20.3% 2,110 8.5%
2019 5,100 20.4% 2,110 8.5%
2020 5,130 20.4% 2,100 8.4%
2021 5,090 20.3% 2,060 8.2%
2022 5,100 20.1% 2,130 8.4%
2023 5,080 19.8% 2,210 8.6%
2024 5,090 19.7% 2,280 8.8%
2025 5,090 19.6% 2,350 9.0%
2026 5,110 19.5% 2,400 9.1%
2027 5,160 19.5% 2,430 9.2%
2028 5,220 19.6% 2,450 9.2%
2029 5,290 19.8% 2,470 9.2%
2030 5,350 19.8% 2,490 9.2%
2031 5,430 20.0% 2,510 9.2%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 2 - Number of Enrolments by Level of Education, 1991-2031

 
Figure 3 - Enrolment Rates by Level of Education (as Percentage of Source Population) 1991-2031 The source is located after the table
  College - Female College - Male College - Total Bachelor - Female Bachelor - Male Bachelor - Total Master's and PhD - Female Master's and PhD - Male Master's and PhD - Total
1991 153 142 295 245 204 449 19 24 43
1992 154 142 296 246 205 451 20 25 45
1993 155 142 297 247 206 453 21 26 47
1994 156 142 298 251 204 455 22 26 48
1995 159 145 304 252 203 455 22 25 47
1996 164 147 311 254 201 455 23 25 48
1997 161 142 303 256 200 456 23 24 47
1998 172 152 324 259 200 459 24 24 48
1999 173 153 326 263 200 463 25 24 49
2000 174 152 326 273 204 477 27 25 52
2001 202 176 378 280 206 486 28 25 53
2002 209 184 393 293 215 508 30 26 56
2003 214 188 402 312 228 540 33 29 62
2004 216 192 408 341 246 587 35 31 66
2005 215 188 403 351 254 605 38 33 71
2006 230 201 431 364 264 628 39 33 72
2007 214 184 398 370 268 638 41 34 75
2008 220 191 411 367 271 638 44 36 80
2009 220 187 407 377 279 656 47 37 84
2010 225 197 422 397 299 696 50 41 91
2011 230 204 434 410 310 720 52 43 95
2012 231 206 437 419 320 739 53 45 98
2013 233 208 441 429 330 759 55 46 101
2014 239 210 449 435 335 770 56 47 103
2015 239 210 449 438 338 776 58 48 106
2016 243 217 460 442 342 784 59 49 108
2017 242 221 463 448 346 794 61 50 111
2018 246 234 480 453 350 803 63 52 115
2019 250 237 487 460 355 815 66 53 119
2020 252 240 492 466 360 826 69 55 124
2021 247 226 473 478 369 847 71 54 125
2022 254 232 486 492 380 872 72 55 127
2023 NA NA 495 NA NA 890 NA NA 129
2024 NA NA 502 NA NA 902 NA NA 130
2025 NA NA 507 NA NA 910 NA NA 130
2026 NA NA 512 NA NA 917 NA NA 130
2027 NA NA 517 NA NA 926 NA NA 131
2028 NA NA 522 NA NA 936 NA NA 131
2029 NA NA 529 NA NA 948 NA NA 131
2030 NA NA 535 NA NA 962 NA NA 132
2031 NA NA 543 NA NA 977 NA NA 133

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 3 - Populations Aged 15 to 19 and 20 to 29 and their Shares in the Total Working Age Population (15-64), 1991-2031

 
Figure 4 - School Leavers with a College Education, 1991-2031 (in thousands) The source is located after the table
  School Leavers with College Degree Population 18-24
1991 135.7 2865.8
1992 137.1 2837.8
1993 138.5 2821.5
1994 140.6 2813.9
1995 144.2 2801.6
1996 147.9 2798.1
1997 151.9 2810.7
1998 157.1 2834.1
1999 161.6 2875.2
2000 164.5 2910.1
2001 165.4 2958.0
2002 166.8 3003.9
2003 166.6 3049.8
2004 164.5 3086.4
2005 162.1 3103.5
2006 160.8 3118.6
2007 159.4 3144.3
2008 157.7 3180.4
2009 155.8 3218.9
2010 154.6 3251.5
2011 154.6 3276.8
2012 154.9 3307.0
2013 155.5 3327.9
2014 156.3 3326.8
2015 158.1 3276.1
2016 162.0 3257.1
2017 167.8 3282.2
2018 173.4 3339.3
2019 178.6 3381.4
2020 183.0 3373.8
2021 188.5 3298.1
2022 193.5 3312.0
2023 197.3 3330.6
2024 200.1 3361.3
2025 202.2 3402.2
2026 204.0 3473.6
2027 206.0 3570.2
2028 208.2 3671.0
2029 210.7 3749.5
2030 213.4 3823.5
2031 216.3 3887.2

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 4, School Leavers with a College Education, 1990-2031 (in thousands)

Figure 5 - School Leavers with a University Education, 1990-2031 (in thousands)The source is located after the table
  School Leavers with University Education Population 18-34
1991 79.6 7959.2
1992 83.6 7874.1
1993 87.3 7785.1
1994 90.9 7702.8
1995 94.8 7611.2
1996 98.4 7521.3
1997 102.3 7442.6
1998 107.0 7342.5
1999 111.5 7274.0
2000 115.3 7237.7
2001 118.3 7271.5
2002 122.5 7321.1
2003 126.3 7363.5
2004 129.0 7406.1
2005 132.1 7436.7
2006 136.2 7474.5
2007 140.3 7551.1
2008 144.3 7660.6
2009 148.4 7786.2
2010 153.5 7892.1
2011 160.3 7971.3
2012 167.8 8059.0
2013 175.9 8133.2
2014 184.2 8188.2
2015 193.5 8166.2
2016 205.0 8211.8
2017 218.4 8311.0
2018 231.3 8467.6
2019 242.7 8613.0
2020 251.9 8686.0
2021 261.1 8636.0
2022 268.3 8729.1
2023 273.2 8800.3
2024 276.2 8864.0
2025 278.0 8920.0
2026 279.6 8984.7
2027 281.4 9054.1
2028 283.7 9124.7
2029 286.6 9190.9
2030 290.0 9254.7
2031 293.7 9322.4

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 5 - School Leavers with a University Education, 1991-2031 (in thousands)

Figure 6 - School Leavers with High School Diploma and High School Dropouts, 1991-2031 (in thousands)The source is located after the table
  Less than High School High School Population 15-19
1991 7.7 74.2 1927.5
1992 9.2 71.1 1926.9
1993 10.9 68.9 1932.1
1994 12.7 68.1 1956.8
1995 14.6 69.4 1981.2
1996 16.5 71.7 2009.9
1997 18.4 75.0 2028.1
1998 20.2 79.6 2052.6
1999 21.6 84.3 2074.9
2000 22.3 87.9 2095.9
2001 22.2 90.0 2115.9
2002 21.7 92.4 2128.3
2003 20.6 93.2 2129.9
2004 18.8 91.9 2144.2
2005 16.9 89.6 2176.2
2006 15.1 87.5 2211.5
2007 13.2 85.2 2232.1
2008 11.2 82.5 2250.9
2009 9.4 79.5 2255.8
2010 7.8 76.8 2248.9
2011 6.7 74.7 2236.2
2012 5.9 72.6 2197.6
2013 5.5 70.4 2154.9
2014 5.4 68.1 2118.9
2015 5.7 66.0 2093.0
2016 6.2 64.9 2083.8
2017 6.9 64.8 2090.6
2018 7.6 64.2 2106.4
2019 8.2 63.3 2114.7
2020 8.6 62.1 2102.4
2021 8.9 61.3 2057.4
2022 8.8 60.7 2126.4
2023 8.5 59.9 2210.7
2024 8.0 58.8 2281.7
2025 7.4 57.4 2346.3
2026 7.0 55.7 2395.2
2027 6.8 53.8 2431.8
2028 6.7 51.7 2454.5
2029 6.8 49.5 2472.9
2030 7.0 47.1 2489.8
2031 7.2 44.8 2510.6

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 6, School Leavers with High School Diploma and High School Dropouts, 1991-2031 (in thousands)

Figure 7 - Historical and Projected Distribution of School Leavers by Education Level (in percentage) The source is located after the table
  Less than High School High school or some PSE College University
2002-2011 3.5% 21.4% 40.2% 34.9%
2012-2021 1.5% 14.5% 37.0% 47.0%
2022-2031 1.4% 9.8% 37.5% 51.3%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 7, Historical and Projected Distribution of School Leavers by Education Level (in percentage)

Figure 8 - Share of the Labour Force (15+) with a Post-secondary Education, 1991 - 2031 The source is located after the table
  share of the labour force (15+) with a PSE (%)
1991 40.4%
1992 41.8%
1993 43.6%
1994 45.9%
1995 47.2%
1996 48.0%
1997 50.0%
1998 50.7%
1999 51.0%
2000 51.1%
2001 52.7%
2002 53.0%
2003 53.9%
2004 54.2%
2005 55.7%
2006 56.5%
2007 57.3%
2008 57.7%
2009 58.6%
2010 59.6%
2011 60.3%
2012 61.3%
2013 61.6%
2014 62.2%
2015 63.6%
2016 64.4%
2017 64.6%
2018 65.5%
2019 66.8%
2020 67.5%
2021 68.7%
2022 69.2%
2023 69.7%
2024 70.2%
2025 70.6%
2026 71.0%
2027 71.4%
2028 71.8%
2029 72.2%
2030 72.6%
2031 73.0%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 8, Share of the Labour Force (15+) with a Post-secondary Education, 1991 - 2031

Figure 9 - Historical and Projected Distribution of School Leavers by Level of Education Usually Required* (in percentage)The source is located after the table
  Occupations where on-the job training is usually provided Occupations usually require secondary school and/or occupation-specific training Occupations usually require college education or apprenticeship training Occupations usually require university education Management occupations
2002-2011 12.0% 29.0% 31.9% 21.5% 5.6%
2012-2021 10.5% 23.9% 33.4% 27.1% 5.1%
2022-2031 9.1% 23.2% 35.0% 31.4% 1.3%

*Based on NOC Skill Level

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 9 - Historical and Projected Distribution of School Leavers by Level of Education Usually Required (in percentage)

Figure 10 - Projected Distribution of School Leavers by Education Level (in percentage) The source is located after the table
  Less than High School High School or Some PSE College University
2022-2031 1.4% 9.8% 37.5% 51.3%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 10 - Projected Distribution of School Leavers by Education Level (in percentage)

Figure 11 - Annual Immigration Levels (in thousands) and Rates, 1999-2031 The source is located after the table
  Immigration Immigration Rate Immigration Rate Average, 1999-2021
1999 173.2 0.57% 0.76%
2000 205.7 0.68% 0.76%
2001 252.5 0.82% 0.76%
2002 256.4 0.83% 0.76%
2003 199.2 0.64% 0.76%
2004 239.1 0.76% 0.76%
2005 244.6 0.77% 0.76%
2006 254.4 0.79% 0.76%
2007 238.1 0.73% 0.76%
2008 249.6 0.76% 0.76%
2009 245.3 0.74% 0.76%
2010 270.6 0.80% 0.76%
2011 259.1 0.76% 0.76%
2012 260.0 0.76% 0.76%
2013 263.1 0.76% 0.76%
2014 267.9 0.76% 0.76%
2015 240.8 0.68% 0.76%
2016 323.2 0.91% 0.76%
2017 272.7 0.76% 0.76%
2018 303.3 0.83% 0.76%
2019 313.6 0.85% 0.76%
2020 284.2 0.76% 0.76%
2021 226.2 0.59% 0.76%
2022 476.3 1.25% 0.76%
2023 440.3 1.14% 0.76%
2024 450.7 1.15% 0.76%
2025 453.4 1.14% 0.76%
2026 450.1 1.12% 0.76%
2027 447.2 1.10% 0.76%
2028 444.4 1.08% 0.76%
2029 441.7 1.06% 0.76%
2030 438.9 1.04% 0.76%
2031 436.1 1.02% 0.76%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 11 - Annual Immigration Levels (in thousands) and Rates, 1999-2031

Figure 12 - Population Growth by Demographic Component, Annual Averages (in thousands) The source is located after the table
  Natural Increase - Average Natural Increase - Percentage Net immigration - Average Net immigration - Percentage
2002-2011 126.1 37.6% 209.3 62.4%
2012-2021 104.9 26.8% 285.8 73.2%
2022-2031 53.6 11.1% 428.0 88.9%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 12 - Population Growth by Demographic Component, Annual Averages (in thousands)

Figure 13 - Contribution of New Immigrants and Domestic Supply to Total Labour Force Growth: Annual Averages (in thousands) The source is located after the table
  2002-2011 2012-2021 2021-2031
New Immigrants Level 104,000 137,000 237,000
Domestic Supply (Labour Force minus new immigrants) 143,000 44,000 11,000
  2002-2011 2012-2021 2022-2031
New Immigrants Percentage 42.1% 75.6% 95.7%
Labour Force (less new immigrants) 57.9% 24.4% 4.3%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 13 - Contribution of New Immigrants and Domestic Supply to Total Labour Force Growth: Annual Averages (in thousands)

Figure 14 - Projected Number of Workers Moving Between Skill Level, 2022-2031 (in thousands and as a percentage share of base-year employment for each skill level) The source is located after the table
  thousands percentage
Management 524.1 31.5%
Skill Level A -313.8 -7.2%
Skill Level B 292.8 4.6%
Skill Level C -217.4 -4.7%
Skill Level D -285.8 -15.7%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 14 - Projected Number of Workers Moving Between Skill Level, 2022-2031 (in thousands and as a percentage share of base-year employment for each skill level)

Figure 15 - Sources of New Job Seekers: Totals (in thousands) The source is located after the table
  2002-2011 2012-2021 2022-2031
School leavers 3,990,700 4,536,400 5,476,000
Immigrants 1,042,800 1,366,300 2,365,400
Other 146,300 67,600 -475,800

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 15 - Sources of New Job Seekers: Totals (in thousands)

Figure 16 - Job Seekers by Skill Level, Projection 2022-2031 (in thousands) The source is located after the table
  School Leavers Immigrants Mobility Others Job seekers (%)
Management 73,519 203,192 514,841 -60,709 9.9%
Skill Level A 1,723,218 450,592 -224,542 -120,453 24.8%
Skill Level B 1,914,727 594,728 292,550 -191,458 35.4%
Skill Level C 1,266,908 699,454 -258,463 -107,173 21.7%
Skill Level D 497,657 417,410 -324,387 4,031 8.1%

Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS projections

Return at position of Figure 16 - Job Seekers by Skill Level, Projection 2022-2031 (in thousands)

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