Figure 1: Employment Growth by Type of Task (Indexed Growth; 2019=100)The source is located after the table
| |
Routine |
Non-Routine |
Interpersonal |
| 2011 |
93.7 |
89.6 |
88.7 |
| 2012 |
94.3 |
91.1 |
89.5 |
| 2013 |
95.2 |
92.1 |
91.1 |
| 2014 |
95.5 |
92.5 |
91.8 |
| 2015 |
95.2 |
93.5 |
92.7 |
| 2016 |
94.9 |
94.3 |
94.0 |
| 2017 |
96.4 |
96.3 |
96.3 |
| 2018 |
98.3 |
97.6 |
97.6 |
| 2019 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
| 2020 |
93.4 |
96.1 |
94.6 |
| 2021 |
97.9 |
100.4 |
99.4 |
| 2022 |
101.6 |
104.6 |
103.8 |
| 2023 |
103.1 |
106.3 |
105.5 |
| 2024 |
104.3 |
107.6 |
107.0 |
| 2025 |
105.4 |
108.9 |
108.3 |
| 2026 |
106.5 |
110.1 |
109.5 |
| 2027 |
107.6 |
111.2 |
110.7 |
| 2028 |
108.5 |
112.4 |
111.8 |
| 2029 |
109.4 |
113.4 |
112.9 |
| 2030 |
110.4 |
114.6 |
114.1 |
| 2031 |
111.4 |
115.7 |
115.3 |
Source: ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.
Return at position of Figure 1: Employment Growth by Type of Task (Indexed Growth; 2019=100)
Figure 2: Industries Projected to Have the Strongest Employment Growth, Projection 2022-2031 (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
| ECONOMY AVERAGE |
1.4% |
| Arts, Entertainment and Recreation (concerts, sports) |
3.51% |
| Accommodation Services (hotels) |
3.36% |
| Colleges, CEGEPs and Vocational Schools |
2.92% |
| Support Activities for Mining, Oil and Gas Extraction |
2.63% |
| Computer System Design and Related Services |
2.42% |
| Food Services (restaurants, bars) |
2.27% |
| Air, Rail and Water Transportation Services (travel, freight) |
2.26% |
| Health Care |
2.18% |
| Management, Administration and Other Support Services |
2.00% |
| Truck and Ground Passenger Transportation Services |
1.85% |
| Postal, Courier, Warehousing, Storage Services |
1.82% |
| Miscellaneous Manuf. (including medical equipment) |
1.75% |
| Legal, Accounting, Consulting & Other Prof. Services |
1.67% |
| Plastics and Rubber Products |
1.56% |
| Repair, Personal and Household Services |
1.54% |
*Note: Industries indicated with a star are those with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2021).
Source: ESDC 2022 COPS industrial projections.
Return at position of Figure 2 - Industries Projected to Have the Strongest Employment Growth, Projection 2022-2031 (average annual growth, in percentage)
Figure 3: Industries Projected to Have Moderate Employment Growth, Projection 2022-2031 (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
| ECONOMY AVERAGE |
1.4% |
| Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Services |
1.41% |
| Social Assistance |
1.37% |
| Construction |
1.27% |
| Mining |
1.08% |
| Public Administration |
1.06% |
| Universities |
1.04% |
| Food and Beverage Products |
0.95% |
| Architectural, Engineering, Design, R&D Services |
0.94% |
| Forestry and Logging |
0.84% |
| Information, Culture and Telecommunications Services |
0.81% |
| Electric, Gas and Water Utilities |
0.78% |
| Retail Trade |
0.74% |
| Wholesale Trade |
0.69% |
*Note: Industries indicated with a star are those with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2021).
Source: ESDC 2022 COPS industrial projections.
Return at position of Figure 3: Industries Projected to Have Moderate Employment Growth, Projection 2022-2031 (average annual growth, in percentage)
Figure 4: Industries Projected to Have the Weakest Growth or Declines in Employment, Projection 2022-2031 (average annual growth, in percentage)The source is located after the table
| ECONOMY AVERAGE |
1.4% |
| Elementary and Secondary Schools |
0.60% |
| Primary Metals and Mineral Products |
0.57% |
| Chemical Products |
0.53% |
| Motor Vehicles, Trailer and Parts |
0.48% |
| Computer, Electronic and Electrical Products |
0.42% |
| Agriculture |
0.40% |
| Fabricated Metal Products and Machinery |
0.34% |
| Aerospace, Rail, Ship and Other Transp. Equip. |
0.30% |
| Printing and Related Activities |
0.28% |
| Textile, Clothing, Leather and Furniture |
0.25% |
| Wood Product Manufacturing |
-0.24% |
| Paper Manufacturing |
-0.63% |
| Fishing, Hunting and Trapping |
-0.81% |
| Oil and Gas Extraction |
-1.04% |
*Note: Industries indicated with a star are those with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2021).
Source: ESDC 2022 COPS industrial projections.
Return at position of Figure 4: Industries Projected to Have the Weakest Growth or Declines in Employment, Projection 2022-2031 (average annual growth, in percentage)
Figure 5: Average Annual Employment Change by Usual Educational Requirement The source is located after the table
| |
2002-2011 |
2012-2021 |
2022-2031 |
| Annual Change, Post-secondary education or management occupations |
167,750.2 |
201,408.5 |
202,267.8 |
| Annual Change, High school education or on-the-job training |
56,203.2 |
-32,069.1 |
81,889.0 |
Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.
Return at position of Figure 5: Average Annual Employment Change by Usual Educational Requirement
Figure 6: Distribution of Expansion Demand by Usual Educational Requirement, Projection 2022-2031The source is located after the table
| Expansion Demand |
Management |
University education |
College education |
High school education |
On-the-job training |
| 2022-2031 (in thousands) |
182 |
813 |
1,027 |
563 |
256 |
| Distribution share by Usual Educational Requirement |
6.4% |
28.6% |
36.2% |
19.8% |
9.0% |
Source: ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.
Return at position of Figure 6: Distribution of Expansion Demand by Usual Educational Requirement, Projection 2022-2031
Figure 7: Distribution of Employment by Usual Educational RequirementThe source is located after the table
| Employment by Usual Educational Requirement (Share) |
2012-2021 |
2022-2031 |
| Management |
9.1% |
8.6% |
| University education |
20.3% |
23.5% |
| College education |
33.6% |
34.0% |
| High school education |
26.4% |
24.2% |
| On-the-job training |
10.6% |
9.6% |
Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.
Return at position of Figure 7: Distribution of Employment by Usual Educational Requirement
Figure 8: Sources of Replacement Demand (in thousands)The source is located after the table
| |
2002-2011 |
2012-2021 |
2022-2031 |
| Retirements |
2,242 |
3,155 |
3,898 |
| In-Service Mortality |
396 |
476 |
560 |
| Emigration |
326 |
281 |
436 |
Note: Historical retirements are constructed using data from the Longitudinal Administrative Database (LAD). Retirement is defined as a complete and permanent withdrawal from the labour market
Sources: ESDC estimates (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.
Return at position of Figure 8: Sources of Replacement Demand over the Periods (in thousands)
Figure 9: Overall Retirement Rate and Indexed Growth of Retirements and Employment (Indexed Growth; 2008=100)The source is located after the table
| |
Retirements (Index Growth, 2008=100) |
Employment (Index Growth, 2008=100) |
Overall Retirement Rate |
| 2001 |
76.4 |
88.1 |
1.3% |
| 2002 |
75.6 |
90.2 |
1.2% |
| 2003 |
80.0 |
92.4 |
1.3% |
| 2004 |
81.4 |
93.8 |
1.3% |
| 2005 |
82.4 |
95.1 |
1.3% |
| 2006 |
84.0 |
96.6 |
1.3% |
| 2007 |
97.3 |
98.6 |
1.4% |
| 2008 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
1.4% |
| 2009 |
103.6 |
98.4 |
1.5% |
| 2010 |
102.5 |
99.7 |
1.5% |
| 2011 |
112.6 |
101.3 |
1.6% |
| 2012 |
112.2 |
102.4 |
1.6% |
| 2013 |
118.8 |
103.7 |
1.7% |
| 2014 |
122.6 |
104.2 |
1.7% |
| 2015 |
125.4 |
104.9 |
1.7% |
| 2016 |
123.4 |
105.6 |
1.7% |
| 2017 |
129.7 |
107.8 |
1.7% |
| 2018 |
134.9 |
109.5 |
1.8% |
| 2019 |
143.7 |
112.0 |
1.9% |
| 2020 |
138.4 |
106.1 |
1.9% |
| 2021 |
144.6 |
111.2 |
1.9% |
| 2022 |
153.1 |
115.8 |
1.9% |
| 2023 |
157.2 |
117.7 |
1.9% |
| 2024 |
159.4 |
119.2 |
1.9% |
| 2025 |
161.2 |
120.6 |
1.9% |
| 2026 |
162.1 |
121.9 |
1.9% |
| 2027 |
162.6 |
123.1 |
1.9% |
| 2028 |
162.6 |
124.3 |
1.9% |
| 2029 |
161.8 |
125.5 |
1.9% |
| 2030 |
160.3 |
126.7 |
1.8% |
| 2031 |
158.2 |
128.0 |
1.8% |
Sources: ESDC estimates (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.
Return at position of Figure 9: Overall Retirement Rate and Indexed Growth of Retirements and Employment (Indexed Growth; 2008=100)
Figure 10: Share of the Population Aged 50 and Over and its Retirement RateThe source is located after the table
| |
Population Share (50+) |
Retirement Rate (50+) |
| 1993 |
31.6% |
8.3% |
| 1994 |
31.9% |
8.1% |
| 1995 |
32.2% |
7.8% |
| 1996 |
32.6% |
7.4% |
| 1997 |
33.2% |
7.6% |
| 1998 |
33.7% |
6.2% |
| 1999 |
34.3% |
5.8% |
| 2000 |
34.8% |
6.1% |
| 2001 |
35.6% |
5.8% |
| 2002 |
36.1% |
5.5% |
| 2003 |
36.7% |
5.4% |
| 2004 |
37.3% |
5.2% |
| 2005 |
38.0% |
5.0% |
| 2006 |
38.6% |
4.9% |
| 2007 |
39.3% |
5.4% |
| 2008 |
39.9% |
5.3% |
| 2009 |
40.6% |
5.3% |
| 2010 |
41.2% |
5.1% |
| 2011 |
42.0% |
5.4% |
| 2012 |
42.6% |
5.1% |
| 2013 |
43.3% |
5.2% |
| 2014 |
44.0% |
5.3% |
| 2015 |
44.7% |
5.3% |
| 2016 |
45.1% |
5.1% |
| 2017 |
45.3% |
5.3% |
| 2018 |
45.4% |
5.4% |
| 2019 |
45.5% |
5.7% |
| 2020 |
45.7% |
5.7% |
| 2021 |
46.0% |
5.8% |
| 2022 |
46.0% |
5.9% |
| 2023 |
45.9% |
5.9% |
| 2024 |
45.9% |
6.0% |
| 2025 |
46.0% |
6.0% |
| 2026 |
46.0% |
6.0% |
| 2027 |
46.0% |
6.0% |
| 2028 |
46.1% |
6.0% |
| 2029 |
46.1% |
5.9% |
| 2030 |
46.3% |
5.8% |
| 2031 |
46.4% |
5.7% |
Sources: ESDC estimates (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.
Return at position of Figure 10: Share of the Population Aged 50 and Over and its Retirement Rate
Figure 11: Distribution of Retirements by Usual Educational Requirement, Projection 2022-2031 The source is located after the table
| |
Management |
University education |
College education |
High school education |
On-the-job training |
| Retirements |
459,600 |
770,800 |
1,354,400 |
975,000 |
314,300 |
| Share of retirements by Usual Educational Requirement |
11.8% |
19.8% |
34.7% |
25.0% |
8.1% |
Source: ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.
Return at position of Figure 11: Distribution of Retirements by Usual Educational Requirement, Projection 2022-2031
Figure 12: Distribution of Retirements by Usual Educational RequirementThe source is located after the table
| |
2012-2021 |
2022-2031 |
| Management |
12.4% |
12.4% |
| University education |
19.8% |
19.8% |
| College education |
33.4% |
34.7% |
| High school education |
26.1% |
25.0% |
| On-the-job training |
8.3% |
8.1% |
Source: ESDC 2022 COPS Projections (estimated retirements over the historical period obtained by using data from the Longitudinal Administrative Database (LAD) and the Labour Force Survey from Statistics Canada).
Return at position of Figure 12: Distribution of Retirements by Usual Educational Requirement
Figure 13: Job Openings from Expansion and Replacement DemandThe source is located after the table
| |
2002-2011 |
2012-2021 |
2022-2031 |
| Expansion Demand |
2,239,500 |
1,693,400 |
2,841,600 |
| Expansion Demand Percentage Share |
43.0% |
30.2% |
36.7% |
| Replacement Demand |
2,964,000 |
3,911,600 |
4,894,400 |
| Replacement Demand Percentage Share |
57.0% |
69.8% |
63.3% |
Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.
Return at position of Figure 13: Job Openings from Expansion and Replacement Demand
Figure 14: Job Openings from Expansion and Replacement Demand by Usual Educational Requirement, Projection 2022-2031The source is located after the table
| |
Retirements |
Expansion Demand |
Other Replacement Demand |
Total |
Share |
| Management occupations |
483,336 |
182,400 |
101,335 |
767,071 |
10% |
| University education |
770,818 |
813,407 |
220,497 |
1,804,722 |
23% |
| College/apprenticeship education |
1,354,422 |
1,026,871 |
333,831 |
2,715,124 |
35% |
| High school education |
975,040 |
562,527 |
249,923 |
1,787,490 |
23% |
| On-the-job training |
314,262 |
256,363 |
90,913 |
661,538 |
9% |
Source: ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.
Return at position of Figure 14: Job Openings from Expansion and Replacement Demand by Usual Educational Requirement, Projection 2022-2031
Figure 15: Job Openings from Expansion and Replacement Demand by Type of Tasks, Projection 2022-2031The source is located after the table
| |
Expansion Demand |
Expansion Demand Share |
Replacement Demand |
Replacement Demand Share |
Total |
| Interpersonal |
985,369 |
38.1% |
1,598,493 |
61.9% |
2,583,862 |
| Non-routine |
1,208,355 |
37.2% |
2,040,044 |
62.8% |
3,248,399 |
| Routine |
637,517 |
33.9% |
1,240,964 |
66.1% |
1,878,481 |
Sources: Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2022 COPS Projections.
Return at position of Figure 15: Job Openings from Expansion and Replacement Demand by Type of Tasks, Projection 2022-2031