Figure 1 - Average Annual Employment Change by TEER Category
| |
2004-2013 |
2014-2023 |
2024-2033 |
| TEER 0 |
4,300 |
35,300 |
19,700 |
| TEER 1 |
76,300 |
12,700 |
78,200 |
| TEER 2 |
69,400 |
69,000 |
72,600 |
| TEER 3 |
40,300 |
37,400 |
43,100 |
| TEER 4 |
-10,700 |
-27,500 |
21,300 |
| TEER 5 |
25,600 |
4,400 |
23,900 |
Sources : Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
Return at position of Figure 1 - Average Annual Employment Change by TEER Category
Figure 2 - Distribution of Expansion Demand by TEER Category, Projection 2024-2033
| |
Expansion Demand |
Share in % |
Employment (AAGR*) |
2023 Employment Distribution |
| TEER 0 |
197,400 |
7.6% |
1.0% |
9.8% |
| TEER 1 |
782,400 |
30.2% |
1.6% |
22.6% |
| TEER 2 |
726,200 |
28.0% |
1.4% |
24.1% |
| TEER 3 |
431,300 |
16.6% |
1.3% |
15.2% |
| TEER 4 |
213,200 |
8.2% |
0.7% |
15.2% |
| TEER 5 |
239,400 |
9.2% |
0.9% |
13.1% |
Source : Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
* AAGR: Annual Average Growth Rate
Return at position of Figure 2 - Distribution of Expansion Demand by TEER Category, Projection 2024-2033
Figure 3 - Distribution of Employment by TEER Category
| |
2014-2023 |
2024-2033 |
| TEER 0 |
9.0% |
9.7% |
| TEER 1 |
20.7% |
23.0% |
| TEER 2 |
24.2% |
24.3% |
| TEER 3 |
15.4% |
15.3% |
| TEER 4 |
16.8% |
14.8% |
| TEER 5 |
14.0% |
12.9% |
Sources : Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
Return at position of Figure 3 - Distribution of Employment by TEER Category
Figure 4 - Employment Growth by Broad Occupational Category, Projection 2024-2033
| |
Employment average annual growth, in percentage |
| *Health occupations |
2.5% |
| Natural and applied sciences and related occupations |
1.6% |
| *Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services |
1.4% |
| *Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport |
1.3% |
| Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations |
1.2% |
| *Business, finance and administration occupations |
1.2% |
| Legislative and senior management occupations |
1.0% |
| *Sales and service occupations |
0.8% |
| Occupations in manufacturing and utilities |
0.6% |
| Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations |
0.4% |
Source : Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
* Occupations with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2023)
Return at position of Figure 4 - Employment Growth by Broad Occupational Category, Projection 2024-2033
Figure 5 - Employment Growth by Type of Tasks (indexed Growth; 2019=100)
| |
Interpersonal |
Non-Routine Cognitive |
Non-Routine Manual |
Routine Cognitive |
Routine Manual |
| 2019 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| 2020 |
94.0 |
97.9 |
90.0 |
95.3 |
89.6 |
| 2021 |
99.1 |
102.9 |
93.4 |
101.1 |
93.6 |
| 2022 |
103.5 |
108.6 |
96.5 |
102.1 |
96.3 |
| 2023 |
106.4 |
112.1 |
98.9 |
103.1 |
97.8 |
| 2024 |
108.4 |
114.3 |
100.3 |
104.6 |
98.5 |
| 2025 |
110.4 |
116.3 |
102.5 |
106.5 |
100.6 |
| 2026 |
112.3 |
118.2 |
104.1 |
108.2 |
102.1 |
| 2027 |
113.6 |
119.8 |
105.2 |
109.3 |
103.1 |
| 2028 |
114.8 |
121.2 |
106.2 |
110.3 |
103.9 |
| 2029 |
116.0 |
122.5 |
107.2 |
111.2 |
104.7 |
| 2030 |
117.2 |
123.8 |
108.1 |
112.1 |
105.5 |
| 2031 |
118.4 |
125.1 |
109.1 |
113.0 |
106.2 |
| 2032 |
119.6 |
126.5 |
110.0 |
113.9 |
107.0 |
| 2033 |
120.8 |
127.8 |
111.0 |
114.9 |
107.8 |
Sources : Author’s Calculations using Statistics Canada and Job Bank (historical data), and ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
Return at position of Figure 5 - Employment Growth by Type of Tasks
Figure 6 - Sources of Replacement Demand
| |
2004-2013 |
2014-2023 |
2024-2033 |
| Retirements |
2,450,200 |
3,436,600 |
4,307,200 |
| In-Service Mortality |
416,300 |
518,100 |
613,700 |
| Emigration |
373,300 |
497,900 |
598,300 |
Sources : Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
Note : Historical retirements are constructed using data from the Longitudinal Administrative Database (LAD). Retirement is defined as a complete and permanent withdrawal from the labour market.
Return at position of Figure 6 - Sources of Replacement Demand
Figure 7 - Overall Retirement Rate and Indexed Growth of Retirements and Employment (indexed Growth; 2008=100)
| |
Employment |
Retirements |
Overall Retirement Rate |
| 2001 |
87.9 |
75.8 |
1.3% |
| 2002 |
90.0 |
75.0 |
1.2% |
| 2003 |
92.1 |
79.3 |
1.3% |
| 2004 |
93.6 |
80.8 |
1.3% |
| 2005 |
94.9 |
81.8 |
1.3% |
| 2006 |
96.6 |
84.0 |
1.3% |
| 2007 |
98.6 |
97.0 |
1.4% |
| 2008 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
1.5% |
| 2009 |
98.6 |
104.2 |
1.5% |
| 2010 |
99.9 |
103.0 |
1.5% |
| 2011 |
101.5 |
113.1 |
1.6% |
| 2012 |
102.8 |
113.0 |
1.6% |
| 2013 |
104.2 |
119.8 |
1.7% |
| 2014 |
104.6 |
123.3 |
1.7% |
| 2015 |
105.4 |
126.3 |
1.7% |
| 2016 |
106.0 |
123.7 |
1.7% |
| 2017 |
108.2 |
138.7 |
1.9% |
| 2018 |
110.2 |
135.1 |
1.8% |
| 2019 |
112.5 |
144.8 |
1.9% |
| 2020 |
106.2 |
139.2 |
1.9% |
| 2021 |
111.5 |
146.9 |
1.9% |
| 2022 |
115.9 |
156.7 |
2.0% |
| 2023 |
118.7 |
163.2 |
2.0% |
| 2024 |
120.6 |
166.8 |
2.0% |
| 2025 |
122.9 |
170.8 |
2.0% |
| 2026 |
124.9 |
174.3 |
2.0% |
| 2027 |
126.4 |
176.7 |
2.0% |
| 2028 |
127.7 |
177.9 |
2.0% |
| 2029 |
128.9 |
178.9 |
2.0% |
| 2030 |
130.1 |
178.9 |
2.0% |
| 2031 |
131.4 |
178.0 |
2.0% |
| 2032 |
132.7 |
176.0 |
1.9% |
| 2033 |
133.9 |
173.8 |
1.9% |
Sources : ESDC Estimates (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
Return at position of Figure 7 - Overall Retirement Rate and Indexed Growth of Retirements and Employment
Figure 8 - Distribution of Retirements by TEER Category, Projection 2024-2033
| |
Retirements (total 10 years) |
Share of Retirements |
Taux de retraite annuel moyen |
| TEER 0 |
563,600 |
13.1% |
2.7% |
| TEER 1 |
870,000 |
20.2% |
1.7% |
| TEER 2 |
991,100 |
23.0% |
1.9% |
| TEER 3 |
740,000 |
17.2% |
2.2% |
| TEER 4 |
682,300 |
15.8% |
2.1% |
| TEER 5 |
460,300 |
10.7% |
1.6% |
Source : ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
Return at position of Figure 8 - Distribution of Retirements by TEER Category, Projection 2024-2033
Figure 9 - Retirement Rate by Broad Occupational Category, Projection 2024-2033
| |
Retirement Rate (annual average, in percentage) |
| Legislative and senior management occupations |
3.1% |
| Occupations in manufacturing and utilities |
2.7% |
| Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations |
2.4% |
| *Business, finance and administration occupations |
2.2% |
| Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations |
2.1% |
| *Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services |
2.0% |
| *Sales and service occupations |
1.9% |
| Natural and applied sciences and related occupations |
1.7% |
| *Health occupations |
1.6% |
| *Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport |
1.5% |
Source : Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
* Occupations with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2023)
Return at position of Figure 9 - Retirement Rate by Broad Occupational Category, Projection 2024-2033
Figure 10 - Job Openings from Expansion and Replacement Demand
| |
2004-2013 |
2014-2023 |
2024-2033 |
| Expansion demand |
2,051,300 |
2,458,700 |
2,589,900 |
| Replacement demand |
3,239,800 |
4,452,700 |
5,519,200 |
Sources : Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
Return at position of Figure 10 - Job Openings from Expansion and Replacement Demand
Figure 11 - Job Openings from Expansion and Replacement Demand by TEER Category, Projection 2024-2033
| |
Other replacement demand |
Retirements |
Expansion Demand |
| TEER 0 |
136,100 |
563,600 |
197,400 |
| TEER 1 |
269,600 |
870,000 |
782,400 |
| TEER 2 |
291,000 |
991,100 |
726,200 |
| TEER 3 |
196,200 |
740,000 |
431,100 |
| TEER 4 |
180,400 |
682,300 |
213,200 |
| TEER 5 |
138,700 |
460,300 |
239,400 |
Source : ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
Return at position of Figure 11 - Job Openings from Expansion and Replacement Demand by TEER Category, Projection 2024-2033
Figure 12 - Job Opening Rate by Broad Occupational Category, Projection 2024-2033
| |
Expansion Demand (as a % of 2023 employment) |
Replacement Demand (as a % of 2023 employment) |
| *Health occupations |
27.9% |
24.8% |
| Legislative and senior management occupations |
10.1% |
41.0% |
| *Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services |
15.3% |
27.4% |
| *Business, finance and administration occupations |
12.5% |
29.8% |
| Natural and applied sciences and related occupations |
16.9% |
24.8% |
| Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations |
12.6% |
28.7% |
| Occupations in manufacturing and utilities |
5.7% |
34.3% |
| Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations |
4.0% |
32.0% |
| *Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport |
13.3% |
22.2% |
| *Sales and service occupations |
7.8% |
25.2% |
Source : Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
* Occupations with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2023)
Return at position of Figure 12 - Taux d’ouverture d’emploi par grandes catégories professionnelles, projection 2024-2033
Figure 13 - Job Opening Rate by Type of Task, Projection 2024-2033
| |
Replacement Demand (as a % of 2023 employment) |
Expansion Demand (as a % of 2023 employment) |
| Interpersonal |
27.0 % |
13.6 % |
| Non-Routine Cognitive |
27.6 % |
14.0 % |
| Non-Routine Manual |
26.7 % |
12.2 % |
| Routine Cognitive |
28.6 % |
11.4 % |
| Routine Manual |
26.0 % |
10.2 % |
Source : ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
Return at position of Figure 13 - Job Opening Rate by Type of Task, Projection 2024-2033
Figure 14 - School Leavers by Education Level, 1991-2033
| |
Less than High School |
High School |
College |
Bachelor's degree |
Master and PhD |
| 1991 |
7,500 |
73,400 |
134,700 |
57,000 |
21,000 |
| 1992 |
9,200 |
70,500 |
136,500 |
59,600 |
22,600 |
| 1993 |
10,900 |
68,500 |
138,200 |
62,200 |
24,100 |
| 1994 |
12,700 |
67,900 |
140,600 |
64,800 |
25,300 |
| 1995 |
14,700 |
69,300 |
144,400 |
67,600 |
26,500 |
| 1996 |
16,600 |
71,600 |
148,100 |
70,300 |
27,500 |
| 1997 |
18,400 |
74,800 |
152,000 |
73,100 |
28,400 |
| 1998 |
20,300 |
79,400 |
157,100 |
76,500 |
29,500 |
| 1999 |
21,700 |
83,900 |
161,400 |
79,700 |
30,600 |
| 2000 |
22,400 |
87,500 |
164,200 |
82,400 |
31,500 |
| 2001 |
22,300 |
89,800 |
165,100 |
84,500 |
32,200 |
| 2002 |
21,800 |
92,300 |
166,800 |
87,500 |
33,400 |
| 2003 |
20,700 |
93,500 |
167,000 |
90,000 |
34,700 |
| 2004 |
19,000 |
92,500 |
165,100 |
91,600 |
36,000 |
| 2005 |
17,100 |
90,500 |
163,100 |
93,400 |
37,500 |
| 2006 |
15,300 |
88,600 |
162,100 |
95,900 |
39,400 |
| 2007 |
13,300 |
86,400 |
160,800 |
98,200 |
41,400 |
| 2008 |
11,300 |
83,700 |
159,100 |
100,500 |
43,300 |
| 2009 |
9,300 |
80,600 |
157,000 |
102,800 |
45,200 |
| 2010 |
7,700 |
77,900 |
155,300 |
105,700 |
47,300 |
| 2011 |
6,500 |
75,800 |
154,700 |
109,700 |
49,900 |
| 2012 |
5,700 |
73,600 |
154,200 |
114,100 |
52,600 |
| 2013 |
5,200 |
71,400 |
153,600 |
118,600 |
55,100 |
| 2014 |
5,100 |
68,900 |
152,600 |
122,700 |
57,600 |
| 2015 |
5,400 |
67,000 |
152,800 |
127,400 |
60,500 |
| 2016 |
6,100 |
66,500 |
155,100 |
133,300 |
64,200 |
| 2017 |
7,000 |
67,400 |
159,500 |
140,700 |
68,500 |
| 2018 |
8,000 |
68,500 |
164,600 |
148,000 |
73,000 |
| 2019 |
9,000 |
69,800 |
170,200 |
154,900 |
77,700 |
| 2020 |
9,800 |
71,300 |
176,400 |
161,200 |
82,500 |
| 2021 |
10,600 |
73,900 |
185,500 |
168,600 |
88,100 |
| 2022 |
10,900 |
76,300 |
194,800 |
175,200 |
93,600 |
| 2023 |
10,800 |
77,200 |
202,800 |
180,500 |
98,500 |
| 2024 |
10,200 |
75,300 |
208,200 |
183,600 |
101,900 |
| 2025 |
9,300 |
72,600 |
211,200 |
185,300 |
104,000 |
| 2026 |
8,300 |
69,500 |
212,900 |
186,500 |
105,300 |
| 2027 |
7,400 |
66,500 |
214,200 |
188,000 |
106,400 |
| 2028 |
6,700 |
63,700 |
215,600 |
189,900 |
107,400 |
| 2029 |
6,100 |
61,000 |
217,000 |
192,200 |
108,400 |
| 2030 |
5,800 |
58,500 |
218,500 |
195,000 |
109,400 |
| 2031 |
5,700 |
56,200 |
220,100 |
198,000 |
110,500 |
| 2032 |
5,700 |
54,000 |
221,900 |
201,400 |
111,600 |
| 2033 |
5,700 |
51,900 |
223,700 |
204,700 |
112,700 |
Sources : Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
Return at position of Figure 14 - School Leavers by Education Level, 1991-2033
Figure 15 - Populations Aged 15 to 19 and 20 to 29, and their Shares out of the Total Working Age Population (15-64), 1991-2033
| |
Population 15-19 |
Population 20-29 |
Share Working Age population, 15-19 |
Share Working Age population, 20-29 |
| 1990 |
1,884,000 |
4,519,000 |
10.3% |
24.6% |
| 1991 |
1,880,000 |
4,441,000 |
10.1% |
23.9% |
| 1992 |
1,880,000 |
4,359,000 |
10.0% |
23.2% |
| 1993 |
1,891,000 |
4,262,000 |
10.0% |
22.5% |
| 1994 |
1,913,000 |
4,161,000 |
10.0% |
21.7% |
| 1995 |
1,937,000 |
4,087,000 |
10.0% |
21.1% |
| 1996 |
1,964,000 |
4,048,000 |
10.0% |
20.6% |
| 1997 |
1,982,000 |
4,034,000 |
10.0% |
20.3% |
| 1998 |
2,005,000 |
4,025,000 |
10.0% |
20.1% |
| 1999 |
2,027,000 |
4,023,000 |
10.0% |
19.8% |
| 2000 |
2,047,000 |
4,045,000 |
10.0% |
19.7% |
| 2001 |
2,064,000 |
4,076,000 |
9.9% |
19.6% |
| 2002 |
2,075,000 |
4,119,000 |
9.8% |
19.5% |
| 2003 |
2,079,000 |
4,164,000 |
9.8% |
19.5% |
| 2004 |
2,093,000 |
4,220,000 |
9.7% |
19.6% |
| 2005 |
2,122,000 |
4,270,000 |
9.7% |
19.6% |
| 2006 |
2,153,000 |
4,320,000 |
9.7% |
19.6% |
| 2007 |
2,174,000 |
4,369,000 |
9.7% |
19.6% |
| 2008 |
2,193,000 |
4,422,000 |
9.7% |
19.6% |
| 2009 |
2,198,000 |
4,485,000 |
9.6% |
19.7% |
| 2010 |
2,191,000 |
4,545,000 |
9.5% |
19.7% |
| 2011 |
2,175,000 |
4,591,000 |
9.4% |
19.8% |
| 2012 |
2,140,000 |
4,645,000 |
9.2% |
19.9% |
| 2013 |
2,099,000 |
4,681,000 |
8.9% |
19.9% |
| 2014 |
2,062,000 |
4,705,000 |
8.7% |
19.9% |
| 2015 |
2,035,000 |
4,701,000 |
8.6% |
19.9% |
| 2016 |
2,027,000 |
4,720,000 |
8.5% |
19.9% |
| 2017 |
2,042,000 |
4,792,000 |
8.5% |
20.0% |
| 2018 |
2,057,000 |
4,890,000 |
8.5% |
20.2% |
| 2019 |
2,064,000 |
4,978,000 |
8.5% |
20.4% |
| 2020 |
2,055,000 |
5,000,000 |
8.4% |
20.4% |
| 2021 |
2,058,000 |
4,953,000 |
8.4% |
20.2% |
| 2022 |
2,085,000 |
4,963,000 |
8.4% |
20.0% |
| 2023 |
2,156,000 |
5,122,000 |
8.5% |
20.3% |
| 2024 |
2,220,000 |
5,270,000 |
8.6% |
20.3% |
| 2025 |
2,277,000 |
5,344,000 |
8.7% |
20.4% |
| 2026 |
2,325,000 |
5,376,000 |
8.8% |
20.3% |
| 2027 |
2,361,000 |
5,408,000 |
8.9% |
20.3% |
| 2028 |
2,389,000 |
5,457,000 |
8.9% |
20.3% |
| 2029 |
2,404,000 |
5,514,000 |
8.9% |
20.4% |
| 2030 |
2,416,000 |
5,577,000 |
8.9% |
20.5% |
| 2031 |
2,429,000 |
5,633,000 |
8.8% |
20.5% |
| 2032 |
2,446,000 |
5,690,000 |
8.8% |
20.5% |
| 2033 |
2,456,000 |
5,754,000 |
8.8% |
20.6% |
Sources : Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
Return at position of Figure 15 - Populations Aged 15 to 19 and 20 to 29, and their Shares out of the Total Working Age Population (15-64), 1991-2033
Figure 16 - Historical and Projected Distribution of School Leavers by Education Level
| |
Less than High School |
High School |
College |
University |
| 2004-2013 |
181,700 |
784,900 |
1,537,900 |
1,037,500 |
| 2014-2023 |
125,900 |
843,000 |
1,598,500 |
1,429,200 |
| 2024-2033 |
77,300 |
701,000 |
1,665,000 |
2,171,500 |
Sources : Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
Return at position of Figure 16 - Historical and Projected Distribution of School Leavers by Education Level
Figure 17 - Share of the Labour Force (15+) with a Post-secondary Education, 1991 - 2033
| |
Share of the Labour Force (15+) with a Post-secondary Education |
| 1991 |
40,4 % |
| 1992 |
41,8 % |
| 1993 |
43,6 % |
| 1994 |
45,9 % |
| 1995 |
47,2 % |
| 1996 |
48,0 % |
| 1997 |
50,0 % |
| 1998 |
50,7 % |
| 1999 |
51,0 % |
| 2000 |
51,1 % |
| 2001 |
52,7 % |
| 2002 |
53,0 % |
| 2003 |
53,9 % |
| 2004 |
54,2 % |
| 2005 |
55,7 % |
| 2006 |
56,4 % |
| 2007 |
57,2 % |
| 2008 |
57,6 % |
| 2009 |
58,5 % |
| 2010 |
59,5 % |
| 2011 |
60,2 % |
| 2012 |
61,2 % |
| 2013 |
61,5 % |
| 2014 |
62,1 % |
| 2015 |
63,5 % |
| 2016 |
64,2 % |
| 2017 |
64,5 % |
| 2018 |
65,4 % |
| 2019 |
66,7 % |
| 2020 |
67,4 % |
| 2021 |
68,6 % |
| 2022 |
68,8 % |
| 2023 |
69,3 % |
| 2024 |
69,6 % |
| 2025 |
70,0 % |
| 2026 |
70,4 % |
| 2027 |
70,8 % |
| 2028 |
71,2 % |
| 2029 |
71,5 % |
| 2030 |
71,9 % |
| 2031 |
72,2 % |
| 2032 |
72,6 % |
| 2033 |
72,9 % |
Sources : Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
Return at position of Figure 17 - Share of the Labour Force (15+) with a Post-secondary Education, 1991 - 2033
Figure 18 - Historical and Projected Distribution of School Leavers by TEER* and Projected Distribution of School Leavers by Education Level
| |
TEER 0 |
TEER 1 |
TEER 2 |
TEER 3 |
TEER 4 |
TEER 5 |
| 2004-2013 |
662,100 |
858,800 |
485,600 |
990,900 |
948,300 |
48,900 |
| 2014-2023 |
692,200 |
804,000 |
603,000 |
1,218,300 |
1,408,600 |
54,300 |
| 2024-2033 |
742,900 |
860,400 |
768,500 |
1,550,900 |
1,868,000 |
75,100 |
| |
Less than High School |
High School |
College |
University |
| 2024-2033 |
71,000 |
629,300 |
2,163,200 |
3,002,300 |
Sources : Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
*Based on NOC 2021.
Return at position of Figure 18 - Historical and Projected Distribution of School Leavers by TEER* and Projected Distribution of School Leavers by Education Level
Figure 19 - School leavers by Broad Occupational Category, Projection 2024-2033
| |
School leavers as a % of 2023 employment |
| Natural and applied sciences and related occupations |
38.8% |
| *Health occupations |
37.3% |
| *Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport |
36.8% |
| *Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services |
31.7% |
| *Business, finance and administration occupations |
30.1% |
| *Sales and service occupations |
26.5% |
| Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations |
23.5% |
| Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations |
22.2% |
| Occupations in manufacturing and utilities |
18.1% |
| Legislative and senior management occupations |
2.3% |
Source : ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
* Occupations with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2023)
Return at position of Figure 19 - School leavers by Broad Occupational Category, Projection 2024-2033
Figure 20 - Annual Immigration Level and Rate, 1999-2033
| |
Immigration |
Taux d'immigration |
| 1999 |
173,200 |
0.6% |
| 2000 |
205,700 |
0.7% |
| 2001 |
252,500 |
0.8% |
| 2002 |
256,400 |
0.8% |
| 2003 |
199,200 |
0.6% |
| 2004 |
239,100 |
0.7% |
| 2005 |
244,600 |
0.8% |
| 2006 |
254,400 |
0.8% |
| 2007 |
238,100 |
0.7% |
| 2008 |
249,600 |
0.8% |
| 2009 |
245,300 |
0.7% |
| 2010 |
270,600 |
0.8% |
| 2011 |
259,100 |
0.8% |
| 2012 |
260,000 |
0.7% |
| 2013 |
263,100 |
0.7% |
| 2014 |
267,900 |
0.8% |
| 2015 |
240,800 |
0.7% |
| 2016 |
323,200 |
0.9% |
| 2017 |
272,700 |
0.7% |
| 2018 |
303,400 |
0.8% |
| 2019 |
313,600 |
0.8% |
| 2020 |
284,200 |
0.7% |
| 2021 |
226,300 |
0.6% |
| 2022 |
493,200 |
1.3% |
| 2023 |
468,800 |
1.2% |
| 2024 |
450,900 |
1.1% |
| 2025 |
493,300 |
1.2% |
| 2026 |
501,900 |
1.2% |
| 2027 |
503,200 |
1.2% |
| 2028 |
504,000 |
1.2% |
| 2029 |
504,500 |
1.2% |
| 2030 |
504,900 |
1.1% |
| 2031 |
505,200 |
1.1% |
| 2032 |
505,200 |
1.1% |
| 2033 |
505,000 |
1.1% |
Sources : Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
*The targets for these projections refer to those set in November 2023. Note that the targets were lowered in October 2024
Return at position of Figure 20 - Annual Immigration Level and Rate, 1999-2033
Figure 21 - Population Growth by Demographic Component, Annual Averages
| |
Natural Increase |
Net Immigration |
Others* |
| 2004-2013 |
130,700 |
252,400 |
-39,200 |
| 2014-2023 |
86,100 |
319,400 |
96,000 |
| 2024-2033 |
42,400 |
497,800 |
25,900 |
Source : ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
* Others include net change in non-permanent residents and emigrants
Return at position of Figure 21 - Population Growth by Demographic Component, Annual Averages
Figure 22 - Contribution of New Immigrants to Total Labour Force Growth: Annual Averages
| |
Other Sources of Supply* (labour force minus new immigrants) |
New Immigrants |
| 2004-2013 |
95,000 |
118,000 |
| 2014-2023 |
63,000 |
162,000 |
| 2024-2033 |
16,000 |
255,000 |
Sources : Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
Return at position of Figure 22 - Contribution of New Immigrants to Total Labour Force Growth: Annual Averages
Figure 23 - Distribution of New Immigrants Joining the Labour Market, by TEER Category, 2024-2033
| |
Distribution of New Immigrants Joining the Labour Market |
| TEER 0 |
8.4% |
| TEER 1 |
28.6% |
| TEER 2 |
19.5% |
| TEER 3 |
14.6% |
| TEER 4 |
14.6% |
| TEER 5 |
14.3% |
Source : ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
Return at position of Figure 23 - Distribution of New Immigrants Joining the Labour Market, by TEER Category, 2024-2033
Figure 24 - Immigration Rate by Broad Occupational Category, 2024-2033
| |
New immigrants entering the labour market as a % of 2023 employment |
| Natural and applied sciences and related occupations |
26.1% |
| Occupations in manufacturing and utilities |
15.3% |
| *Sales and service occupations |
12.8% |
| *Business, finance and administration occupations |
12.4% |
| Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations |
10.4% |
| *Health occupations |
10.3% |
| *Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport |
10.2% |
| *Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services |
8.0% |
| Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations |
6.0% |
| Legislative and senior management occupations |
5.1% |
Source : ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
* Occupations with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2023)
Return at position of Figure 24 - Immigration Rate by Broad Occupational Category, 2024-2033
Figure 25 - Projected Number of Workers Moving Between TEER categories, 2024-2033
| |
Number |
Percentage share of 2023 employment |
| TEER 0 |
615,700 |
31.0% |
| TEER 1 |
-404,500 |
-8.9% |
| TEER 2 |
59,900 |
1.2% |
| TEER 3 |
246,000 |
8.0% |
| TEER 4 |
-180,700 |
-5.9% |
| TEER 5 |
-336,500 |
-12.7% |
Source : ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
Return at position of Figure 25 - Projected Number of Workers Moving Between TEER categories, 2024-2033
Figure 26 - Projected Number of Workers Moving Between Broad Occupational Category, 2024-2033
| |
Movers as a percentage share of 2023 employment |
| Legislative and senior management occupations |
50.6% |
| Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations |
6.8% |
| Occupations in manufacturing and utilities |
5.9% |
| Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services |
5.7% |
| Business, finance and administration occupations |
4.8% |
| Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations |
4.1% |
| Health occupations |
2.9% |
| Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport |
-7.2% |
| Sales and service occupations |
-7.3% |
| Natural and applied sciences and related occupations |
-15.2% |
Source : ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
* Occupations with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2023)
Return at position of Figure 26 - Projections du nombre de travailleurs se déplaçant entre les grandes catégories professionnelles pour la période 2024-2033
Figure 27 - Sources of New Job Seekers
| |
School leavers |
Immigrants |
Others |
| 2004-2013 |
3,188,800 |
1,003,700 |
-67,400 |
| 2014-2023 |
4,780,400 |
1,624,000 |
-300 |
| 2024-2033 |
5,865,800 |
2,552,300 |
-179,200 |
Sources : Statistics Canada (historical) and ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
Return at position of Figure 27 - Sources of New Job Seekers
Figure 28 - Job Seekers by TEER Category, 2024-2033
| |
School Leavers |
Immigrants |
Mobility |
Others |
| TEER 0 |
75,100 |
214,500 |
615,700 |
-66,000 |
| TEER 1 |
1,868,000 |
730,700 |
-404,500 |
-39,800 |
| TEER 2 |
1,550,900 |
497,000 |
60,000 |
-81,900 |
| TEER 3 |
768,500 |
372,100 |
246,000 |
-45,300 |
| TEER 4 |
860,400 |
371,700 |
-180,700 |
-5,000 |
| TEER 5 |
742,900 |
366,100 |
-336,500 |
58,800 |
Source : ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
Return at position of Figure 28 - Job Seekers by TEER Category, 2024-2033
Figure 29 - Job Seeker Rate by Broad Occupational Category, Projection 2024-2033
| |
Sortants scolaires |
Immigrants |
Autres |
Mobilité |
| Legislative and senior management occupations |
2.3% |
5.1% |
-3.2% |
50.6% |
| *Health occupations |
37.3% |
10.3% |
-0.9% |
2.9% |
| Natural and applied sciences and related occupations |
38.8% |
26.1% |
-0.9% |
-15.2% |
| *Business, finance and administration occupations |
30.1% |
12.4% |
-1.4% |
4.8% |
| *Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services |
31.7% |
8.0% |
-1.5% |
5.7% |
| *Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport |
36.8% |
10.2% |
0.6% |
-7.2% |
| Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations |
23.5% |
10.4% |
-2.0% |
6.8% |
| Occupations in manufacturing and utilities |
18.1% |
15.3% |
-2.4% |
5.9% |
| *Sales and service occupations |
26.5% |
12.8% |
0.8% |
-7.3% |
| Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations |
22.2% |
6.0% |
-1.6% |
4.1% |
Source : ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
* Occupations with a majority of female workers (more than 50% in 2023)
Return at position of Figure 29 - Job Seeker Rate by Broad Occupational Category, Projection 2024-2033
Figure 30 - Example of an occupation projected to face shortage conditions : General practitioners and family physicians (NOC 31102)
| |
Job Openings |
| Expansion demand |
27,000 |
| Retirements |
15,700 |
| In-Service Mortality |
2,700 |
| Emigration |
2,500 |
| |
Job Seekers |
| School Leavers |
21,000 |
| Immigrants |
7,100 |
| Mobility |
-1,800 |
| Others |
-600 |
Source : ESDC 2024 COPS projections.
Return at position of Figure 30 - Example of an occupation projected to face shortage conditions
Table 2 : Final outlook summary
| Occupations showing: |
Number of Occupations |
Share of occupations |
Employment (2023) |
Share of total employment (2023) |
| Strong risk of shortage |
38 |
7% |
2,128,000 |
11% |
| Moderate risk of shortage |
65 |
13% |
3,301,100 |
16% |
| Balance |
365 |
71% |
14,433,300 |
72% |
| Moderate risk of surplus |
11 |
2% |
134,400 |
0.7% |
| Strong risk of surplus |
6 |
1% |
139,700 |
0.7% |
| NA |
31 |
6% |
34,400 |
0.2% |
| Shortage |
Surpluses |
- 34 in health-related occupations
- 28 in trades occupations related to construction or transportation.
- 12 in occupations related to natural and applied sciences.
- 11 in occupations related to education, law and social, community and government services.
- 8 in occupations related to manufacturing
- 4 in occupations related to agriculture.
|
- 9 in occupations related to art, culture, recreation and sport.
- 4 in occupations related to natural and applied sciences.
- 2 in occupations related to business, finance and administration.
|
Source : ESDC 2024 COPS projections and Statistics Canada data.
Return at position of Table2 - Final outlook summary