Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

(NAICS 2361-2362; 2371-2379; 2381-2389)

This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in constructing, repairing and renovating buildings and engineering works, and in subdividing and developing land. These establishments may operate on their own account or under contract to other establishments or property owners. They may produce complete projects or just parts of projects. The industry is composed of three segments: construction of residential and non-residential buildings (industrial, commercial and institutional); heavy and civil engineering construction (such as highways, bridges, utility systems, mining, oil and gas facilities); and specialty trade contractors (such as masonry, painting and electrical work). Construction activities are oriented toward the domestic market and primarily driven by residential and non-residential investment, which is particularly sensitive to fluctuations in economic and financial conditions as well as demographic trends in Canada. The industry employed about 1.6 million workers in 2023 (7.8% of total employment in the economy), with 53% in specialty trade contracting, 37% in residential and non-residential construction, and 9% in heavy and civil engineering construction (see footnote for data on GDP)^[1]. Employment is mostly concentrated in Ontario (38%), Quebec (20%), Alberta (15%) and British Columbia (15%). The workforce is characterized by a high proportion of men (87%) and a significant concentration of self-employed (24%).

Key occupations (5-digit NOC) include:

• Home building and renovation managers (70011)
• Construction trade helpers and labourers (75110)
• Carpenters (72310)
• Electricians (72200)
• Construction managers (70010)
• Heavy equipment operators (73400)
• Contractors and supervisors, other construction trades, installers, repairers, and services (72014)
• Plumbers (72300)
• Contractors and supervisors, heavy equipment operator crews (72021)
• Heating, refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics (72402)
• Residential and commercial installers and servicers (73200)
• Painters and decorators (73112)
• Contractors and supervisors, carpentry trades (72013)
• Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers and lathers (73102)
• Transport truck drivers (73300)
• Roofers and shinglers (73110)
• Construction estimators (22303)
• Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers (72301)
• Floor covering installers (73113)
• Contractors and supervisors, mechanic trades (72020)
• Contractors and supervisors, pipefitting trades (72012)
• Concrete finishers (73100)
• Sheet metal workers (72102)
• Iron workers (72105)
• Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics (72400)
• Heavy-duty equipment mechanics (72401)
• Bricklayers (72320)
• Welders and related machine operators (72106)
• Tilesetters (73101)
• Construction inspectors (22233)
• Crane operators (72500)
• Insulators (72321)
• Civil engineers (21300)
• Contractors and supervisors, machining, metal forming, shaping and erecting trades and related occupations (72010)
• Elevator constructors and mechanics (72406)
• Glaziers (73111)
• Gas fitters (72302)

Projections over the 2024-2033 period

Real GDP is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.7%. Additional anticipated interest rate reductions by the Bank of Canada combined with the current housing shortage are expected to boost residential investment in the short term. However, housing prices and mortgage rates will stay higher than pre-pandemic levels, which might continue limiting affordability and the demand over the long run. On the non-residential side, investments in engineering structures are expected to be supported by energy and transportation projects. Moreover, non-residential buildings such as manufacturing plants will speed up due to large electric vehicle battery factories, which will have themselves to capacity to generate additional construction projects.

Productivity is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.2%. Improving productivity has always been a challenge for the construction sector and the outlook remains modest. Supported by the Construction Sector Digitization and Productivity Challenge program^[2], the adoption of innovative techniques, including 3-D printing and prefabricated dwelling components, would help support productivity by partially automating homebuilding.

Employment is projected to increase by 1.5% annually. With productivity gains expected to be modest, employment growth is projected to be roughly in line with real GDP growth. The housing shortage and the transition towards a greener infrastructure will provide job opportunities for workers in the residential sector, which tends to be more labour intensive than the non-residential side of the industry. However, employment growth could potentially be limited by the industry’s aging workforce and the limited availability of skilled workers.

Challenges and Opportunities

Even though we expect employment to grow at a healthy pace, the availability of skilled workers will more than likely represent the greatest challenge for the construction sector. Any inability to overcome this challenge represent a risk that can limit the outlook. The declining trend anticipated in household formation rates due to population aging and high housing prices making housing increasingly unaffordable could accelerate the shift towards more purpose-built rental complexes and multiple dwelling units rather than single-family dwellings. As the cost of construction is lower for buildings with multiple compared to single, this could help the industry to build more units.

Real GDP , Employment and Productivity Growth rate (2024-2033)

Sources: ESDC 2024 COPS projections.