Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

(NAICS 4811-4812; 4821; 4831-4832; 4861-4869; 4871-4879; 4881-4889)

This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in transporting passengers and merchandises by air, rail and water. It also includes establishments transporting goods by pipeline (such as crude oil, natural gas and refined petroleum), those providing recreational transportation services (such as sightseeing or dinner cruises and steam train excursions), as well as those providing support services to various transportation establishments (specific to a mode of transportation or multi-modal). Support services are the largest of the six segments, accounting for 37% of production and 47% of employment in 2023. Other major segments include air transportation (19% of production and 29% of employment); rail transportation (13%, 19%); and pipeline transportation (21%, 5%). Overall, the industry employed 302,000 workers in 2023, mostly concentrated in Ontario (29%), Quebec (22%), British Columbia (19%) and Alberta (16%), with a workforce primarily composed of men (72%).

Key occupations (5-digit NOC) include:

• Air pilots, flight engineers, flying instructors (72600)
• Airline ticket and service agents (64312)
• Pursers and flight attendants (64311)
• Aircraft mechanics and aircraft inspectors (72404)
• Managers in transportation (70020)
• Air transport ramp attendants (74202)
• Public works maintenance equipment operators and related workers (74205)
• Transport truck drivers (73300)
• Longshore workers (75100)
• Customs, ship and other brokers (13200)
• Railway yard and track maintenance workers (74200)
• Railway and yard locomotive engineers (73310)
• Railway conductors and brakemen/women (73311)
• Contractors and supervisors, heavy equipment operator crews (72021)
• Supervisors, supply chain, tracking and scheduling co-ordination occupations (12013)
• Water transport deck and engine room crew (74201)
• Air traffic controllers and related occupations (72601)
• Deck officers, water transport (72602)
• Railway carmen/women (72403)
• Production and transportation logistics coordinators (13201)
• Engineer officers, water transport (72603)
• Ground and water transport ticket agents, cargo service representatives and related clerks (64313)
• Boat and cable ferry operators and related occupations (75210)
• Supervisors, railway transport operations (72023)
• Railway and motor transport labourers (75211)
• Railway traffic controllers and marine traffic regulators (72604)

Projections over the 2024-2033 period

Real GDP is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.6%.

• Growth in air transportation is expected to be supported in the short-term by increasing disposable income and higher spending from households and businesses. Business travel is also expected to increase due to robust corporate profits, although remote meetings may limit this growth. The industry is susceptible to economic downturns and unforeseen events, which could disrupt operations and reduce demand.
• Rail transportation is expected to do well due to long-term interprovincial trade expansion, industrial market support, and infrastructure investments that will boost movements of goods domestically and internationally. On the passenger side, the Rail 2030 initiative will guide the industry's future, potentially including high-speed rail, which could significantly increase demand if developed^[1].
• Growing trade across the provinces, increased price competition, an aging population, and the shift toward green shipping are key trends shaping Canada's water transportation industry. Higher demand for natural resources will boost shipping volumes, especially for coal, potash, iron ore, and grain exports. The aging Canadian population's growing preference for cruise travel will significantly benefit the water transportation industry by driving increased demand for cruises, leading to higher revenue and potential expansion opportunities.
• The pipeline transport industry will benefit from the expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline and Enbridge's Line 3 Replacement, which will greatly enhance capacity and export capabilities. The industry is expected to adopt cleaner fuels and advanced monitoring systems to mitigate environmental impacts and enhance safety. However, market dynamics, such as fluctuating oil prices and geopolitical factors, will continue to influence profitability and the demand for oil and gas products.

Productivity is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.6%. Overall, the industry is highly intensive in capital with aircrafts, trains, boats and pipelines all requiring substantial investments, which will help support productivity growth over the forecast horizon. The growing number of competitors on the domestic and international markets will prompt the industry, particularly Canadian airlines, to increase efficiency and productivity at the expense of employment. This includes the introduction of self-service kiosk operation in airports that increased efficiency across all aspects of the check-in and passenger processing system, as well as other measures that speed up maintenance work and the marketing of air services, and changes in the industry structure through mergers and acquisitions.

Employment is projected to increase by 1.1% annually. Employment in the industry is expected to grow at a healthy pace. Transportation service, which account for almost half of the industry workforce, as well as air transportation and rail transportation are more labour intensive, will support growth in employment as a skilled workforce will be needed to support the industry expansion.

Challenges and Opportunities

Canada's transportation industry, notably the air, rail, water, and pipeline sectors present various opportunities and challenges. Technological advancements such as fuel-efficient, electric and autonomous aircraft, drone technology, high-speed and digital rail systems, autonomous ships, as well as advances in pipeline technology offer significant opportunities. However, environmental concerns remain a major issue. The air transport industry contributes significantly to Canada's greenhouse gas emissions, and the pipeline sector encounters opposition due to environmental risks. Stricter environmental regulations due to Canada’s commitment to combat climate change and a shift towards renewable energy could impact the sector. Aging infrastructure is another issue, particularly in the rail sector, which faces stiff competition from road and air transport. Consequently, the future of Canada's transport industry will likely be shaped by a balance of these opportunities and challenges.

Real GDP , Employment and Productivity Growth rate (2024-2033)

Sources: ESDC 2024 COPS projections.