Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

(NAICS 6111)

Elementary and secondary schools comprise establishments primarily engaged in providing academic courses that consist of a basic preparatory education, from kindergarten to grade 12. They employed about 879,100 workers in 2023, with women accounting for 75% of the workforce. Employment is distributed proportionately to population: 38% in Ontario, 23% in Quebec, 13% in British Columbia, 11% in Alberta, and 15% in the remaining provinces. Key occupations (5-digit NOC) include:

• Elementary school and kindergarten teachers (41221)
• Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants (43100)
• Secondary school teachers (41220)
• School principals and administrators of elementary and secondary education (40021)
• Early childhood educators and assistants (42202)
• Social Workers (41300)
• Student monitors, crossing guards and related occupations (45100)
• Educational counsellors (41320)
• Audiologists and speech-language pathologists (31112)
• Instructors of persons with disabilities (42203)
• Library and public archive technicians (52100)
• Education policy researchers, consultants and program officers (41405)
• Janitors, caretakers and heavy duty cleaners (65312)
• Bus drivers (73301)

Projections over the 2024-2033 period

Real GDP is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.8%. Strong growth is expected in 2024 as the industry recovers from labour disruptions in 2023 and grows to accommodate the large increase in population, fueled by large volumes of new immigrant families and non-permanent residents with children. Over the whole of the 2024-2033 period, the Canadian population aged between 4 and 18 is projected to increase at an annual rate of 0.3% supported by continued higher immigration. Assuming that there will be no significant disruptions or unexpected developments in provincial educational budgets, this will result in a moderate pace of growth.

Productivity is expected to decline at an average annual rate of 0.3%. While technological advancements offer opportunities for innovative teaching methods and personalized learning experiences, limited resources and inadequate technological infrastructure prevent the industry from fully embracing these opportunities. The concept and measurement of productivity in educational services may differ from the other sectors of the economy where goods and services are traded and more easily valued in monetary terms. For example, the introduction of more computers/mobile devices in the classroom may improve the educational experience of students, but this development may not necessarily show up in the productivity figures because the number of teachers does not necessarily adjust to the growing use of technology.

Employment is projected to increase by 1.1% annually. Despite the incorporation of technology to provide a more flexible learning environment, the elementary and secondary schools industry is expected to remain a labour-intensive sector. While online lessons offer greater flexibility to students, teachers will always be required to prepare and evaluate coursework and exams, leaving little room for productivity growth in the sector. In addition, supporting the diverse needs of students, such as those with disabilities, will require a higher staff-to-student ratio which will also drive employment growth.

Challenges and Opportunities

Elementary and secondary schools encounter the challenge of navigating the rapidly evolving educational landscape. Technological advancements present opportunities for the implementation of innovative teaching methods and the delivery of personalized learning experiences. However, the limited resources and lack of technological infrastructure present obstacles to their ability to fully embrace these opportunities. By investing in technology integration, providing training for educators, and fostering partnerships with technology companies, schools can overcome some of these challenges and create a more engaging and effective learning environment for students. Schools also face challenges related to inclusion and diversity. They must address the diverse needs of students, including those with disabilities, English or French language learners, and students from different cultural backgrounds. Creating inclusive environments and implementing strategies to support diverse learners is essential. Finally, although technological progress might provide a more efficient way to deliver education, it is unlikely that this will translate into productivity growth numbers as this would generally mean an increase in the number of students per educator.

Real GDP , Employment and Productivity Growth rate (2024-2033)

Sources: ESDC 2024 COPS projections.