Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS)

(NAICS 5411; 5412; 5416; 5418; 5419)

This industry comprises establishments that provide highly specialized business services. It is composed of five segments: legal services (26% of production and 24% of employment in 2023); accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping and payroll services (26% and 28%); management, scientific and technical consulting (25% and 19%); advertising and public relations (10% and 15%); and other professional, scientific and technical services such as photographic, translation and veterinary services (13% and 14%). Overall, the industry employed about 795,000 workers in 2023, mostly concentrated in Ontario (44%), Quebec (20%), British Columbia (15%) and Alberta (13%). The workforce is characterized by a majority of women (60%), a high level of education, and a large proportion of self-employed (33%).

Given the wide variety of activities, key occupations (5-digit NOC) include a mix of:

• Financial auditors and accountants (11100)
• Lawyers and Quebec notaries (41101)
• Professional occupations in business management consulting (11201)
• Accounting technicians and bookkeepers (12200)
• Legal administrative assistants (13111)
• Paralegal and related occupations (42200)
• Professional occupations in advertising, marketing and public relations (11202)
• Photographers (53110)
• Business development officers and marketing researchers and consultants (41402)
• Translators, terminologists, interpreters (51114)
• Veterinarians (31103)
• Animal health technologists and veterinary technicians (32104)
• Other business services managers (10029)
• Graphic designers and illustrators (52120)
• Advertising, marketing and public relations managers (10022)
• Financial managers (10010)
• Mathematicians, statisticians and actuaries (21210)
• Natural and applied science policy researchers, consultants and program officers (41400)
• Agricultural representatives, consultants and specialists (21112)
• Sheriffs and bailiffs (43200)
• Forestry professionals (21111)

Projections over the 2024-2033 period

Real GDP is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.9%. In the short-term, output growth is expected to remain limited as elevated interest rates will keep corporate profits low. However, the sector’s output should rise once again as a potential decrease in interest rates over the medium-term boosts corporate profits, capital market and housing activity, and government expenditure on consulting services increases, resulting in increased demand for the sector’s services. Longer term, a rising number of M&As (mergers and acquisitions) and IPOs, increasing cybersecurity concerns, and a stricter Canadian regulatory environment should support continued growth.

Productivity is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.3%. While AI tools, like ChatGPT, have helped some occupations typical in these industries such as lawyers, consultants and accountants streamline activities, it has also started to reduce the need for certain services. For example, electronic tax filing has become increasingly popular and is expected to continue gaining traction over the course of the projection period putting downward pressures on the labour demand related to tax preparation services. In addition, low-cost legal tools, such as online legal document drafting resources, have put downward pressure on the demand for legal services, especially for small law firms which have historically performed the tasks which are becoming automated. Counterintuitively, this might not lead to strong productivity growth, as it concentrates the sector’s activities on the more complicated and labour intensive cases, while reducing the quantity of high throughput cases which require less human input.

Employment is projected to increase by 1.6% annually. Although the adoption of new technological tools and processes is expected to reduce the demand for routine tasks, the increase in more complicated tasks, such as those related to M&As and IPOs, will support employment growth. As client requirements become more complex, the Legal, Accounting, Consulting and Other Professional Services sector is expected to continue to require highly educated and specialized individuals for the rigorous analysis and face-to-face interactions at the core of the sector’s services.

Challenges and Opportunities

Given the sector’s reliance on the overall performance of Canada’s business environment, falling profits or an economic downturn demand for the sector’s services could decline. On the other hand, higher profits could create an opportunity for the sector to see even stronger growth. The COPS projections suggest economic growth should pick back up starting in the second half of 2024, which should drive demand for legal, accounting, consulting and other professional services. However, given the cyclical nature of most services within this sector, if the Bank of Canada fails to lower interest rates in the short-term, growth could slow further, hindering industry performance. Finally, the government is an important purchaser of consulting and legal services^[1]. The federal government already announced it would be cutting back spending on professional services, such as consulting services. A change in government in 2025 could lead to further cost cutting efforts, which could lead to a greater decrease in spending on professional services, posing a risk to industry performance.

Real GDP , Employment and Productivity Growth rate (2024-2033)

Sources: ESDC 2024 COPS projections.

^[1]Government of Canada, Refocusing Government Spending to Deliver for Canadians, March 1, 2024.